There are only two WNBA games today for Friday, August 11, so we have only two WNBA player props.
But coming off a perfect 3-for-3 of player prop bets, let’s keep the good vibes going into the weekend and whatever it is people say that I actually don’t and don’t know why I just did.
Really, though: Let’s win some money. It’s the dog days of summer, and the W is enjoying one of its best and most riveting seasons yet.
It also helps that the league’s best two teams are in action tonight, so let’s begin in Brooklyn.
WNBA Player Props & Picks
Sabrina Ionescu, Over 5.5 Assists (-120)
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | ION|
I generally like betting Sabrina Ionescu over on assists at 5.5. It’s when this prop elevates to 6.5 that I get nervous, but we got in early.
Ionescu and the Liberty are in such a rhythm, with four straight wins, including a near 40-point stomping over the Las Vegas Aces in a potential WNBA Finals matchup. The Oregon Duck has gotten to six or more assists in two straight, eight of her last 10 and 10 of her last 13 games, which includes a stretch of six games of six-plus dimes.
It feels like something you have to play whenever it’s on the board at 5.5 with the way Ionescu is distributing the ball, especially with the Liberty making and taking the most 3s this season. Ionescu’s been a large part of that, but Betnijah Laney, Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart have also all excelled from deep this season, which helps the assist rate.
Weirdly enough, the Liberty haven’t won more than four straight games since June — each of their last two winning streaks, before this current one, ended at four games. Chicago Sky +12.5? Hmm…
Jackie Young, Under 18.5 Points (-120)
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET | ION|
Can you believe the Mystics and Aces haven’t played each other yet?
I don’t just want to take A’ja Wilson over on points again, and I’ve found betting point totals on other Aces difficult just because of the variance in scoring outside of the former MVP. Any of Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray are capable of going off on a nightly basis, which has happened throughout the season. Sometimes it’s one, often it’s two, and you could possibly get all three, but generally, it’s one or two.
Tonight, I’m taking a slight under on Jackie Young. She got to 18 and 16 points in her last two games despite hoisting just nine shots in each outing, but the output has been close to the norm as of late. Her only time exceeding 18.5 points in her last five was the only time she shot over 14 times in a game — it was actually 24 points on 21 shots against the Atlanta Dream.
She’s gone over 18.5 points in just five of her last 16 games, is at 12 field goal attempts per game during that stretch and for the season, hasn’t gotten the free throw volume as of late, has amazing teammates and might sit some fourth-quarter minutes if the Aces are en route to covering the 17.5-point spread.
Yes, Young could absolutely go off for at least 19 points, which she’s done in exactly half of her 28 appearances this season, but most of them were early on, and more variables favor the opposite outcome, although, I think it should be a sweat.