PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
NBA Player Props & Pick
Mike Conley, Over 20.5 Points + Assists
|Odds||o20.5 PTS + AST|
|Time||9:30 p.m. ET|
Amid the chaotic week for the Minnesota Timberwolves, the 16-year veteran Mike Conley has proved to be a stabilizing force. The point-guard has notched 24 and 27 combined points and assists in the last two games, with each being treated by Minnesota as must-win contests.
In fact, Conley is averaging 21.7 points and assists per 36 minutes for the Timberwolves this season, across 25 games. It’s important to highlight his per minute stats, as T-Wolves coach Chris Finch tightened his rotation last game, playing Conley a season high 38 minutes in regulation. I expect another 36+ minutes for the lead guard tonight.
Beyond the raw numbers, this is a plus matchup for Conley. Thunder defensive ace, Lu Dort, will be shadowing Anthony Edwards all game, while Karl-Anthony Towns draws a deceptively tough matchup against the lengthy Jalen Williams (plus, KAT does not appear to be 100%). Conley likely draws a matchup against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a more ideal spot than his teammates.
I expect Minnesota to lean on their veteran once again tonight. Conley led the Wolves in touch time against the Lakers, and was aggressive with 9 drives to the basket (also tied for the team lead).
Where Conley should thrive is with his spot-up shooting. With the tougher defensive assignments against KAT and Edwards, I expect both stars to look to their teammates when the defense swarms. As we saw against the Lakers, Conley is capable of making defenses pay for leaving him open, hitting four of his five spot-up three pointers.
While I don’t expect another 80% clip from Conley, the Thunder did allow the eighth most points via the spot-up shot this season, on the fourth highest frequency. This should lead to ample volume for the Ohio State product.
In a game where both teams are all-in, I project Conley at 23 points and assists. I’d play this line up to over 21.5.
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