There’s only one game on the slate for Friday night, so this is a great spot to build a Same Game Parlay and really hone in on a huge game in what’s been a wild and wonky series.
Using the Action Labs Player Prop tool I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing in this potential closeout game.
The last two Wolves-Grizzlies games have come down to the final shot, and everything about this series has been frenzied, unexpected, and downright unpredictable. It should be another fun one, and with established rotations and minutes, it’s a good spot to play some props.
Let’s get into this one.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Karl-Anthony Towns, Over 3.5 Turnovers (+110)
|Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves||Timberwolves -1.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | ESPN|
It’s been an up-and-down postseason for Karl-Anthony Towns.
Towns was in constant foul trouble in the play-in game and never really made his imprint on the game, but his teammates bailed him out to get the win anyway. He responded with a huge Game 1, scoring 29 points in a surprise road win for Minnesota.
The next two games brought more constant foul trouble and just 23 points combined before another explosion in Game 4 with 33 points in another win. Game 5 was a mixed bag, more foul trouble but good numbers when he was out there, ultimately in a close loss.
Notice any pattern? When Towns stays out of foul trouble and keeps himself on the floor, Minnesota has been pretty good. But that has happened far too rarely for the Wolves this series.
The fouls aren’t the only problem. The turnovers are a big problem too. Towns averaged 3.1 turnovers per game in the regular season, but he’s averaging 5.0 per game in the playoffs. He had only three in Game 1 but has gone over this line in each of the last four outings, with five, four, six, and seven turnovers.
Towns went under this line in 51-of-74 regular season starts, but he was over it in two of his four Memphis games. The Grizzlies are one of the league’s best teams at forcing turnovers, and their constant pressure has bothered KAT and forced him into some bad decisions.
He’s averaging a turnover every 7.2 minutes on the court this series. At that rate, we only need 25 Towns minutes to go over this line, and we should get that even with foul trouble.
Maybe Towns will have a big game yet, and perhaps the shots will fall. But the mistakes will come along the way, so I’ll just bet on that and ride out the rest.
Ja Morant, Under 27.5 Points (-105)
What a breakout season this has been for Ja Morant! The league’s newest Most Improved Player made his first All-Star Game and exploded as a scorer, increasing almost eight points a game and racking up highlight reel dunks on the nightly.
Morant was a hero down the stretch in Game 5. After a relatively quiet start to the game, he scored the Grizzlies’ final 13 points, including the twisting game-winning layup at the buzzer. That helped Morant finish with 30 points in the win.
But that also means Morant was at only 17 points before that final seven minutes. He had only 11 points in Game 4 and just 16 in Game 3. Morant’s scoring has been down this series because of the way Minnesota is defending him.
The Wolves are trying to prevent exactly what happened to close Game 5. They are sending a double at Morant and trying to get the ball out of hands, forcing any other Memphis player to beat them.
Morant is at just 22.4 PPG on the series. He’s gone under this line in three of the five games, and I think this line would’ve been much lower if not for that big final stretch, much of which came at the line when Minnesota couldn’t keep its hands off him. I’ll play this under, and I may also play an alternate under. Morant is +320 to go under 21.5 at Bet365.
That doesn’t mean Morant won’t be good, though. He’s really made his impact felt in other areas by racking up rebounds and assists. Morant is averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 11 assists over the last four games since Minnesota adjusted its defense. He’s averaging a triple-double and has one triple-double already, and he look how close he was in the other three games: two rebounds once, one board in another, and one assist in Game 5.
Morant is three boards and one assist away from four straight triple-doubles, and he’s playing nearly every minute. That’s why, despite the scoring decrease, I’m also playing Morant to record a triple-double at +450 at BetMGM.
That number is priced way off, and the books are basically admitting that since they’re charging -155 for a double-double. That’s conceding a 60% chance of at least 10 rebounds or assists (plus 10 points), and we only need a 29% shot at hitting the other 10 too. Morant’s rebounding and assists lines are at 8.5 and 9.5. The books are telling us this will be at least close.
Brandon Clarke, Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds (-106)
There are no posted lines for Clarke yet as of publishing, but books will be posting Clarke lines closer to tip-off, and I’m looking to play some overs.
The Grizzlies excised Steven Adams from the lineup in Game 2, and he’s been a non-factor ever since. Xavier Tillman is getting the starts in his place, but Clarke has been the big beneficiary. He’s been one of the league’s finest sixth men since coming into the league and continues to come off the bench, but he’s making a huge impact on this series.
Clarke was a monster on the offensive glass in Game 5. He had nine offensive rebounds, seven of them in the final quarter during Memphis’s big comeback. He finished the game with 21 points and 15 rebounds, a huge night off the bench.
Clarke had 20/8 in Game 3 and 15/5 in Game 4. He’s averaging 18.7 points and 9.3 rebounds over the last three games and playing 31.7 MPG, and those minutes may only go up as we hit the home stretch.
Clarke has at least 15 points in each of the last three games. The rebounds have been a bit inconsistent, but those offensive rebounds are killer. I’ll look for over 7.5 rebounds, anything 15 or under on points, or a PR combo at 24 or below.