With props angles, sometimes things can get very complicated — shifting roles, more shots, defensive matchups, and other Xs and Os. Other times, props can be as simple as watching the minutes.
As some players slide in and out of the lineup for injuries or other reasons, an increase in minutes means opportunity for others — and that means overs.
I have laid out five prop bets that I’m playing, using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Let’s dive into Friday’s plays.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Clint Capela, Over 10.5 Rebounds (-102) | Over 11.5 Rebounds (+138)
|Clippers vs. Hawks||Hawks -7|
|Time | TV||7:30 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Last season, Clint Capela led the NBA in rebounding. At 14.3 RPG, it was a breakout season for the big man as he immediately fit right in with the Atlanta Hawks as a role man pairing with Trae Young and a rebounding center.
Capela is down to 12.0 RPG this season and that certainly feels like a bit of a disappointment, but it’s really not been a drop in production as much as a decrease in minutes at times.
Remember, Capela was injured coming into the season and took a bit to ramp up, under 30 minutes in each of his first six games. Once he did, he was the same old Capela as always, putting up 13.4 RPG in almost 31 minutes a game for 23 games — right up until he got hurt again. Capela missed two games, then played a couple weeks before missing a longer stretch.
When he returned, the heavy minutes load did not. Capela averaged only 22.6 MPG in his first 10 starts back, and his rebounds dropped off to 9.0 RPG, though his actual per-minute rebounding rate was up. Now over the last 10 games, we’re starting to get a more happy medium. Capela’s minutes are back up to 27.1 per game, and he’s played at least 29 in all but for of them. And his rebounding is back too, at 11.4 RPG, and that goes up to 12.5 RPG excluding the lower minute games.
We project Capela at 28 minutes tonight and have him at 12.1 rebounds, and that fits right in line with his recent production. He’s had nine rebounds in eight straight so the floor is still very high, and the Clippers rank dead last in offensive rebounding and bottom three overall on the glass. If Capela plays his expected minutes load, he should have another big rebounding night.
When Capela plays at least 26 minutes this season, he’s gone over this line an impressive 32 of 35 times, hitting this over 91%. The rebounds come easy — so this is really a minutes bet. He has at least 12 boards in 27 of those games too, 77% of them, so it’s worth playing the alternate over since it’s only one extra board. You can play 14-plus or 16-plus too if you like.
Dean Wade, Over 6.5 Points (-116) | Over 9.5 Points (+300)
|Cavaliers vs. Heat||Heat -7.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
I know I’m not the only one that has a visceral reaction every time I catch a Cavs game and hear the announcers refer to Dean Wade. It sounds so much like D-Wade and reminds us of The Flash’s brief time in Cleveland, but Dean Wade is… a very different player. He’s significantly more ground-bound and nowhere near as flashy.
But he’s earned rotation minutes for the Cavs nonetheless, and now that he’s healthy again, he’s quickly grabbed his rotation spot back with Cleveland shorthanded and in need of all the help it can get.
Wade started Tuesday against the Pacers and played 37 minutes. Wade is an efficient scorer and the best perimeter shooter on the team not named Darius Garland, at 36% behind the arc on the season, and the Cavs really need his shooting and spacing out there. Cleveland has a 122 Offensive Rating with Wade on the floor this year. That’s the highest of anyone on the team not named Jarrett Allen. The offense just functions better with Wade out there.
Wade has started 26 games this season and averages 7.9 PPG. It’s not exactly blowing anyone away, but he’s gone over this line in 16 of those starts, hitting this over 62% of the time. That includes double digits in 11 starts, hitting that line 42% of the time versus an implied 25% here. And when Wade plays at least 25 minutes, those numbers get even better: 9.1 PPG, and that goes up to 11.6 PPG over the last 10 such games with double digits in seven of them.
Wade also has made multiple 3s in 10 of 16 games with 25 or more minutes, hitting that plus-juice prop 63% of the time, and he’s over 1.5 treys in eight of his last 10 such games at 5.1 attempts per game. You obviously shouldn’t play all of these since they’re very clearly correlated, but you’ve got options here.
I’ll play the points itself to -135. We project Wade at 9.1 points.
Scottie Barnes, Over 2.5 Assists (+105)
|Raptors vs. Suns||Suns -5.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Scottie Barnes has been a revelation as a rookie. Barnes probably won’t win Rookie of the Year with the way Evan Mobley has been playing, but he’s a shoe-in for All Rookie First Team.
Barnes is averaging 15.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. His scoring has been much higher than expected, and his defense has been uneven at times but is taking shape. Today we’re playing Scottie’s passing, which might be his standout trait. Barnes actually was an oversized point guard his one season at Florida State, and he has real passing chops and excellent decision making skills with the ball in his hands.
Barnes has had some big passing games this year, but those have come mostly when the Raptors were shorthanded. He’s averaging 4.6 APG when Fred VanVleet is out. But don’t forget that OG Anunoby is missing, and Barnes is at 3.4 APG without OG, a slight uptick there too — in part because he’s getting more minutes and more time on the ball. That’s no given, either. Pascal Siakam’s assists actually go down without Anunoby in the lineup.
For Barnes, he’s over 2.5 dimes in 15 of 21 games without Anunoby, hitting this over 71% of the time, and we’re getting plus juice! For the season as a whole, he’s gone over this line 60% of the time. It’s just too low a line, even against a very stingy Suns defense that allows the second fewest assists in the league.
We project Barnes at 3.8 assists. I probably won’t play any alternate overs here with FVV in the lineup and a tough matchup, but you have to like the over 2.5 here at any plus number.
Bonus NBA Prop Bets
- Jerami Grant under 4.5 rebounds (-170 PointsBet): We hit this one in Grant’s last game, and he’s gone under 4.5 boards in 14 of his last 15 games now. Things haven’t been the same since Grant’s injury. He was at 4.8 RPG in 24 games before that, but he’s at just 3.0 RPG and under this line in 15 of 17 games since returning, with the offensive rebounds totally disappearing. You can play under 3.5 at +125 if you prefer, or additionally as a de-escalator prop. Grant has gone under 3.5 boards in 11 of his last 17 games (65%).
- Terance Mann over 6.5 rebounds (+130 PointsBet): Mann has been terrific over the last 11 games at 13.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game in 31 minutes. He’s a great athlete and terrific positional rebounder and has gone over this line in nine of those 11 games (82%). Even if he continues to come off the bench, the minutes will be there and that’s only buying us line value.