Friday's NBA Player Prop: Expect Luka Magic in Dallas

PropBetGuy explains why he's buying-in on Luka Doncic and how he's betting his points and assist prop in Raptors vs. Mavericks.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Luka Doncic, 39.5 PTS + AST

Prop Over 39.5 PA (-115)
Matchup Raptors vs. Mavericks
Time 8:30 p.m. ET
Books Available FanDuel

Luka Doncic averaged 37.1 combined points and assists last season, in yet another MVP-caliber campaign. With those numbers roughly in line with the two seasons prior, there likely isn’t much room for improvement this season, right?


With the departure of Jalen Brunson to New York, Doncic has kicked it up to yet another notch so far this season. The fifth-year dynamo is averaging an absurd 45.1 points and assists through his first seven games. He’s eclipsed this total in each outing.

Digging into the advanced numbers, we can see some notable changes compared to last season. Doncic’s already sky-high Usage Rate has increased (39% this season compared to 36.8% last season), he’s scoring more off drives (17.6 points vs. 12.5) and he’s looking to post-up more as well (7.3 compared to 3.7).

What’s clear is that Doncic is being asked to shoulder even more of the scoring load. He’s taking 41.6% of the Mavericks’ shots while he’s on the floor, more than a 7% increase from last season. And despite the added shot volume, his potential assists remain in line with last season.

Even though the Raptors might present a tougher test, Doncic has shown himself to be matchup-proof. Last season, the point-forward registered 48 and 39 points and assists in his two outings against Toronto.

Hoping to see some Luka magic tonight, I have the three-time All Star projected at 44 points and assists.

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