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Giannis Antetokounmpo, 11.5 Rebounds
|Prop||Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 REB (+110)|
|Matchup||Bucks vs. 76ers|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
Amid the 11-game NBA slate tonight is a prime Eastern Conference matchup between the 76ers and Bucks. These two teams met in October, with the Bucks squeaking out a two-point victory.
In what figures to be another close game, I’m honing in on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s rebounding prop. Antetokounmpo pulled down 13 boards in that game, and is averaging 11.8 on the season. He’s pulled down at least 12 rebounds in eight of his 11 games this season.
While rebound props can be a bit more variable, this is a perfect matchup for the two-time MVP to clean the glass. Dating back to the 2018-19 campaign, Antetokounmpo has eclipsed this line in nine of his last 10 matchups against Joel Embiid and the 76ers.
To state the obvious, Embiid is a really tough matchup. Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and Serge Ibaka figure to attempt to check the 76ers big man, whose insane 37% Usage Rate ranks second to only Luka Doncic. With Embiid being involved in so much of the 76ers offense, his primary defenders typically aren’t able to crash the boards.
Antetokounmpo figures to guard PJ Tucker or Tobias Harris — both matchups would allow him to help with Embiid in the paint and rebound. The 76ers allow the second most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards as is, which should spell a big day for Antetokounmpo.
I have the Greek Freak projected with 13 rebounds tonight and I would bet the 11.5 up to -120.
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