Friday NBA Playoff Prop: Keep Fading Domantas Sabonis in Game 6

PropBetGuy explains why he is betting against Domantas Sabonis in Kings vs. Warriors Game 6 on Friday, April 28.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Domantas Sabonis, Under 37.5 PRA

Odds -105
Time 8 p.m. ET
Books Available DraftKings
As we trudge on to Game 6, we’ve entered scary hours for the Sacramento Kings in their series against the Golden State Warriors. After losing three straight games, the Kings find themselves in the unenviable position of needing to win a game at the Chase Center to stave off elimination.

And while you’d expect the Kings to lean on their stars in a dire situation, I’m still fading big man Domantas Sabonis on his points, rebounds and assists line.

Sabonis has failed to clear this line in each of the first five games of this series. Despite being undersized, the Warriors have done a solid job protecting the paint (42% shot frequency ranks seventh amongst playoff teams; 55% opponent field goal percentage ranks fourth). This has led to Sabonis failing to clear 15 points in three of five games.

From an assists standpoint, the Warriors defense has been stout at home, allowing the sixth fewest dimes per game in the regular season. Despite averaging 7.3 assists per game in the regular season, Sabonis has failed to clear four helpers in four of the five games this series.

Tack on the fact that Warriors center Kevon Looney has single-handedly controlled the glass with 56 rebounds over the last three games, and it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Sabonis excels in all three categories.

Plus, the focal point of this series has been the play on the perimeter. I expect De’Aaron Fox to once again control the offense for the Kings.

Even playing a projected 38 minutes, I have Sabonis pegged at 34 PRA tonight. I’d comfortably play this line down to under 36.5 PRA.

Pick: Domantas Sabonis Under 37.5 PRA | Playable to Under 36.5.

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