Celtics vs. Warriors Odds & Picks: Golden State Fights Back Early

After a fourth quarter for the ages that led to the Celtics taking home-court advantage, the ball is literally and figuratively in the court of the Warriors in game two. If nothing else, all the finals experience that was lauded before game 1 informs Golden State of the importance of not going down 0-2, it is them. This is shaping up to be a finals that will make up for all the blowouts of the playoffs up to this point.

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Celtics vs. Warriors Betting Odds

Celtics Warriors
Spread +4.5 -4
Moneyline +160 -178
Over/Under 215.5

*Lines accurate at time of publication

Celtics vs. Warriors Best Bets

Warriors 1Q -1.5 (-106, FanDuel)

In the last round plus game 1, the Warriors are 4-2 in the first quarter, at an average of +1.83. In his postgame podcast, Draymond Green mentioned that Steph Curry going off for 21 in the first quarter hurt the Warriors the rest of the game because they would get too stagnant. That is one of the many early adjustments Golden State can make.

In these playoffs, Ime Udoka and the Celtics have proven to be great at in game adjustments but as game 1 showed, the first quarter can be a place the opponent can take advantage. In the last series plus game 1, Boston is 4-4 in the first. In game 1, Golden State shot above what could be expected from three-point range, 53.8% but was in their normal range from the field in general, 48%.

Maybe it is looking for a reason to take a stroll down narrative street but the numbers back up expecting the Warriors to come out strong in game 2 and provide some value to this number.

Risk: 1.06 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -116)

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Celtics vs. Warriors 3Q Over 54.5 (-115, DraftKings)

The Warriors made their run in the third quarter and were able to push this over the total, even with the Celtics shooting 36.8% from the field. In the conference finals plus game 1, the Warriors went over this total in four of six games. If you take out the one outlier of a 38-point quarter in game 2 against Dallas, Golden State games have averaged 57.6 points in the other five.

Boston has not been as consistently prolific in the third as Golden State but taking too much away from a series against Miami where many games were out of hand by halftime could be problematic. With that significant asterisk, Boston’s team total in the third has been within two points of covering their half of this total in four of the eight games, counting game 1.

Golden State’s upside with Boston’s ability to have a more consistent quarter after the performance in game 1 provides value on this line.

Risk: 1.15 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

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