Will we get a Game 7?
The 2022 NBA Finals has been a fantastic series featuring magnificent individual performances, huge point swings, and each team winning on the opposing home court.
The Warriors were shockingly outscored 35-24 in the third quarter of Game 5, only to come roaring back to earn a hard-fought 104-94 win. Golden State is now just one win away from their fourth NBA title in the past eight seasons.
Boston was successful in limiting Stephen Curry after his 43-point explosion in Game 4. Curry was held without a three-pointer for the first time in 233 games. Curry posted just 16 points on 7 of 22 from the field, but Andrew Wiggins (26 points), Gary Payton (15 points), and Klay Thompson (21 points) picked up the scoring to protect homecourt at the Chase Center.
The Celtics has staved off elimination twice in these playoffs, winning road games at Milwaukee and Miami. They now must do it again, at home in Game 6. Will the Celtics force a Game 7 it a fitting end to a fantastic series?
Here are my picks for tonight’s matchup.
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Celtics vs. Warriors Betting Odds
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Celtics vs. Warriors Thursday Night Picks
Andrew Wiggins (GS) Under 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115, DraftKings)
Fade the big game.
Andrew Wiggins has been fantastic in these NBA Finals, averaging 18.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game. Even with that level of production, this line is set only one point below that combined total.
Zooming out on his playoff averages, Wiggins is generating just 25.7 PRA per game. He has actually gone under this number in three of the five NBA Finals games. Wiggins averaged just 4.5 rebounds per game in the regular season, yet has posted 29 total rebounds in the last two games.
Wiggins has gone under this number in seven of Golden State’s nine road playoff games. I project regression for Wiggins superb output, especially in a road elimination game against Boston’s defense.
Risk: 1.15 Units on DraftKings to win 1 Unit. (Bet up to -120)
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Derrick White Under 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105, DraftKings)
Derrick White has been an integral part of the Celtics playoff success, especially in the NBA Finals. He is averaging 11.4 PPG with three game of 12 points or more. White has also tallied two or more assists in four of the five games. However, there is a lot of variation in his possible production.
The emergence of Robert Williams has cut White’s minutes down substantially. In the three games he beat this number, White posted at least 30 minutes. In the other two games he averaged 22.5 minutes, four points, one rebounds, and 2.5 assists.
In a potential season-ending game, I expect Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Al Horford, and Marcus Smart to play close to maximum minutes. Unless there is an injury or foul trouble, I can’t see White reaching this total.
Risk: 1.15 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -110)
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