Game 4 of the NBA Finals should be an exciting one. Down 0-2, Milwaukee took advantage of playing at home and a poor shooting night from Devin Booker to convincingly win their first game of the series. Milwaukee will be looking to even the series tonight, and holding the Suns under 30 percent from deep for the second straight game could go a long way to achieving that goal.
1. Suns +4.5 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
After a beatdown in Game 3, the Phoenix Suns have flipped from five point favorites to -4.5 point underdogs. As mentioned above, the Suns loss coincided with an atrocious night from the field from Devin Booker. The Bucks should be favored at home, but a complete flip of the Game 3 line presents value. Tonight’s contest should be competitive, and could truly go either way if Booker finds his shot. It would surprise absolutely no one if the Bucks tied the series tonight, but a win by six or more points would. The Suns are the value here due to the combined probability of either an outright win or cover being higher than the probability of a Bucks cover. Tap them for one unit.
2. Chris Paul Under 4.5 Rebounds | -160 at DraftKings Sportsbook
This prop has become significantly more popular after CP3’s zero rebound performance in Game 3. The juice here may be untenable for some, but the probability suggests that the odds should be north of -200, which means there is value here despite the high juice. Chris Paul has fallen under five rebounds in nine of his last 10 contests and is an excellent bet to do so once again in Game 4. Paul is actually a strong rebounder for a point guard who averaged 7.4 rebounds per game in the postseason just last season, but his recent play suggests the under is still a strong value here. Keep it to one unit, whether that is return or wager is up to you and your risk averseness.
3. Pat Connaughton Over 1.5 Threes Made | -167 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Giannis managed 17 rebounds in his first game back from what some thought may be a season-ending injury. With more trust in his leg tonight, he should be able to repeat with another double-digit rebound performance against the Phoenix Suns. He had only two offensive rebounds in Game 1, which means he was not totally reliant on the Bucks missing shots in order to grab an insane amount of boards. Unfortunately, we are not the only ones in love with this player prop. The juice shot up to -144 by this afternoon and will likely continue to inch towards -150 as we approach game time. 11.5 was a generous number from Vegas given the circumstances, especially when we consider that Giannis has grabbed 12 or more boards in seven of his last nine full games. The juice is high so keep it to a one-unit return.
NBA Prop Bets
- Bobby Portis Jr. Prop Bet Odds
- Devin Booker Prop Bet Odds
- Chris Paul Prop Bet Odds
- Jrue Holiday Prop Bet Odds
- P.J. Tucker Prop Bet Odds
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