Bucks vs. Hawks Odds, Pick, Prediction: Trae Young & Co. Have Value at Home (January 11)

Action Network contributor Corey Parson breaks down the matchup between the Bucks and Hawks, including his pick and prediction.

Bucks vs. Hawks Odds

Bucks Odds -2.5
Hawks Odds +2.5
Over/Under 236.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks meet for final time during the regular season tonight at State Farm Arena. These two teams have faced off a lot this season, including two preseason matchups, but the Hawks have the 2-1 series lead in the games that matter.

It wasn’t too long ago these two teams battled each other for a chance to make the 2021 NBA Finals, but their paths have diverged since. The Hawks are struggling to stay above water in the crowded East, while the Bucks are keeping pace at the top of the conference.

Let’s take a look at the Bucks vs. Hawks odds and see where the value lies in the first game of tonight’s ESPN doubleheader.

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Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks enter tonight’s game 2.5 games behind the conference leading Boston Celtics. But if you dig deeper, the Bucks have been inconsistent at times this season. They have won four of their past six games, but are only 7-8 in their past 15 games and closed out December by going 1-4 on a five-game road trip.

Tonight they continue a four-game road trip that started in New York, has them in Atlanta tonight then in South Beach for back to back games  against the Miami Heat. Road games have been a chore for this Bucks squad — they are 7-11-1 against the spread on the road this season, including 4-10-1 since Nov. 11, according to Bet Labs. The Bucks have been road favorites in 11 games this season and have covered just four times.

Playing poorly on the road is one of the Bucks’ issues, but their main issue has been trying to get healthy bodies into their lineup every night. Khris Middleton remains out tonight against the Hawks. He has only played in seven games this season and there’s still no timetable for his return. Jrue Holiday has also been in and out of the lineup this season, even coming off the bench at times to limit his minutes.

Offensively the Bucks rank 24th in the NBA in points scored per 100 possessions (excluding garbage time). To illustrate just how shocking that is, the lowest the Bucks finished in Offensive Rating in their previous four seasons was seventh.

The last time they were outside of the top-12 was 2015-16. Outside of their shooting at the rim, the Bucks are at or below league average from every area of the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have also had an inconsistent team this season. They are two games below .500 and ninth in the East. The Hawks have a talented team, but it seems internal turmoil is at the heart of their issues. It had been reported previously that head coach Nate McMillan and All-Star point guard Trae Young were at odds and Shams Charania of The Athletic also reported that McMillan considered stepping down.

Along with the off-court drama, the Hawks have also dealt with injuries this season. Clint Capella will miss tonight’s game, he has not played since Dec. 27 and hasn’t suited up for consecutive games since Dec. 12. Bogdan Bogdanovic has played in 17 games but missed all of October and November and John Collins missed eight games in mid-December as well.

In some ways, it may be good that the Hawks are playing one of the better teams in the NBA. Against teams below .500 this season, the Hawks are 6-12 ATS, according to Bet Labs. Against teams with a win percentage above .600 — the really good teams — the Hawks are 6-5 ATS, including 5-2 at home.

The Hawks seem to get up when the opponent calls for it. Will they do that again tonight?

Bucks-Hawks Pick

Despite being wildly inconsistent this season, Atlanta has played Milwaukee well, in their last two meetings the Hawks have a 15-point win and a 19-point win over the Bucks. And as noted above, this is also a spot — at home against a good team — where the Hawks seem to thrive.

In a small sample this season, the Hawks are 3-1 as a home underdog, with outright wins over the Bucks and Denver Nuggets and a one-point loss to the Brooklyn Nets in the middle of their recent streak.

They should cover and win tonight as a home underdog.