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Top Plays: 13 of 61 (21.3%, +35.9u)
*considering 1u risk for Top Plays* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**
CHICAGO BULLS @ NEW ORLEANS PELICANS – 8:00 EST
This will be the 2nd matchup of the year between the Bulls and Pelicans, with the Bulls having scored 1st Basket earlier in the season (Lonzo Ball). Nikola Vucevic (35% Tip Win) will face Jonas Valanciunas (53% Tip Win) and he is 1-0 on the year. In the previous game, the Bulls scored on the 1st possession.
Despite winning 53% of his tips, Valanciunas and the Pelicans only score 1st in 39% of his games. Conversely, Vucevic only wins 35% of his tips but the Bulls score 1st in 54% of his games. The crazy thing is, Vucevic’s Tip Win% gets even worse on the road (28%), but the Bulls 1st Basket % increases (59%).
The Pelicans have been scored on 1st in 3 straight home games. In the last 7 games, the Pelicans have been scored on 1st, it’s been a SG or C in 6 of them.
The Bulls have scored 1st in 7 of last 8 road games despite Vuc only winning the tip in 4 of them. In the last 12 games for the Bulls, Javonte Green or Nikola Vucevic have scored 1st team basket in 10 of them (cashing 1st Basket in 6 of them). Although Javonte Green plays PF for the Bulls, he is a natural SG, so I like this to still lineup with the trend of SG’s scoring against the Pels.
The only other player I’d consider for the Bulls is Lavine, although he’s only cashed 1st Basket 1 time in 2022. Alex Caruso also hasn’t cashed 1st Basket all year for the Bulls. So I’ll stay away from them.
Javonte Green has scored 1st (including last night) in 3 of the Bulls’ last 12 (25%) and his value at +1500 is an implied probability of 6.3%. Too much value here tonight to pass up on playing him.
TOP PICKS: Nikola Vucevic +500, Javonte Green +1500
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