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Top Plays: 10 of 47 (21.3%, +33.2u) *considering 1u risk for each bet* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**
BROOKLYN NETS @ PHILADELPHIA 76ERS – NBA on TNT – 7:30 EST
This will be the 4th matchup of the year between the Nets and 76ers, with the Nets having scored 1st in 2 of the 3 matchups. This will be the first tip matchup of the year between former teammates, Joel Embiid (63% Tip Win) and Andre Drummond (71% Tip Win). I expect Drummond to win the tip, having won 6 of 8 tips since joining the Nets. In addition to that, when Embiid jumps at home, opposing teams score 1st FG in 68% of games!
The 1st 2 guys I’m looking at is Seth Curry +1000 and Bruce Brown +1300. The Nets are -120 to score 1st, and the odds that they have Curry and Brown at are way too high. Curry has taken the 1st team attempt for the Nets in 3 of the L4 that Drummond jumped. Bruce Brown has cashed 1st FG in 2 of the L5 for the Nets.
I’ll also be looking at Andre Drummond +1100. In all of the 76ers games, a Center cashes 1st FG in 19% of games! Drummond at +1100 gives this an 8.3% implied probability, and with the expectation that Drummond wins the tip, way too much value not to play him here.
Going with the Nets in a revenge game.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ DENVER NUGGETS – NBA on TNT – 10:00 EST
This will be the 4th matchup of the year between the Warriors and Nuggets, with the Nuggets having scored 1st in 2 of the 3 matchups (Barton & J. Green). Nikola Jokic has won all 3 tips this year against Kevon Looney, and the Nuggets scored on their 1st possession in their most recent matchup on March 7th. Jokic has won the tip in 8 straight home games, so I like the Nuggets to get the 1st look again here.
The Warriors give up most of their 1st baskets to opposing positions in this order – Centers (18%), Small Forwards (14%), Power Forwards (9%), Shooting Guards (8%), and Point Guards (6%). In the previous 3 matchups, Jokic never even attempted a shot at 1st basket, so I’ll stay away from his low value at +390.
I’m looking at Aaron Gordon +750 & Jeff Green +1100 here to play. Jeff Green cashed 1st basket in the most recent matchup with the Warriors on a high-flying dunk. Gordon and Green have accounted for a 1st team attempt in 5 of their L8.
In the last 7 games that the Warriors were scored on 1st, it was a SF or PF in 5 of them.
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