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Top Plays: 14 of 63 (22.2%, +39.9u)
*considering 1u risk for Top Plays* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**
DALLAS MAVERICKS @ MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES – 8:00 EST
This will be the 4th matchup of the year between the Mavericks and Timberwolves, with the T-Wolves having scored 1st in 2 of the previous 3 (D’Angelo Russell / Karl-Anthony Towns).
Looking at the tip matchup, Towns (50% Tip Win) will be facing against Dwight Powell (30% Tip Win) for the second time this year and he is 2-0 H2H. When you look at their stats for their respective locations, Towns wins 54% of his tips at Home while Powell only wins 25% of his tips. In the last 19 games for the Mavericks, they’ve allowed their opponents an opportunity at 1st Basket (cashing 13x, 68%).
I expect Towns to win the tip, but the T-Wolves should get a look no matter what (and ideally make it – 2 of the last 3 top plays have taken 1st Basket attempt and missed).
Unfortunately, I don’t have 2 flashy plays for you, I just think 2 guys that the ball is guaranteed to run through on the 1st possession.
Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell have scored 1st team basket for the Timberwolves in 6 straight games (Towns 5x, Russell 1x). KAT & D’Lo have taken a 1st Basket attempt in 8 of their last 9 home games. KAT has cashed 1st Basket in 2 straight home games.
The T-Wolves have scored 1st in 6 of L7 games overall, and 5 of L7 home games.
For the Mavericks, Powell comes into this game having lost 6 straight tips and the Mavs having been scored on 1st in 5 of those games.
In the previous matchup between the teams, D’Lo had Reggie Bullock on him to start, and he ran a Pick & Roll with Jared Vanderbilt that got Luka Doncic to switch onto him. He then attacked the rim and had an easy layup. I think there’s a possibility they go to a similar look to start the game, and there could be some value on Vanderbilt at +1000.
TOP PLAYS: Karl-Anthony Towns +410, D’Angelo Russell +600
VALUE PLAYS: Jarred Vanderbilt +1000
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