76ers vs. Bucks: Value on Philly as Road Underdog

Jacob McKenna offers up a betting previews for Sunday's NBA game between the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers.

76ers vs. Bucks Odds

76ers Odds +4.5
Bucks Odds -4.5
Over/Under 233.5
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Philadelphia 76ers will make a short one-game road trip to Milwaukee to face the Bucks on Sunday night.

Philadelphia enters this matchup as the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference and is also coming off back-to-back wins over Dallas and Toronto.

The Bucks come into this matchup as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, but after a 41-point loss to Boston on Thursday, their lead is juat 1.5 games.

Despite both Philadelphia and Milwaukee having already clinched a playoff spot, this matchup has major seeding implications. Let’s dig into the odds and make a betting prediction for the Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks.

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Philadelphia 76ers

March couldn’t have gone any better for the 76ers.

Philadelphia went 12-5 last month, with those 12 wins being tied with Memphis for the most in the NBA. The 76ers managed to reach that win total by dominating on the offensive end of the floor. The 76ers posted a 123.5 Offensive Rating, per in March.

Philadelphia’s biggest edge was its 3-point shooting, an area of the floor where the 76ers shot 40.4%. For the season Philadelphia ranks first in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.8%, so the small uptick in efficiency is more than sustainable.

Tyrese Maxey led the 3-point barrage and shot 51.3% from deep. Additionally, Tobias Harris, Shake Milton, Danuel House, Georges Niang and De’Anthony Melton all shot above 39% from behind the arc in March.

Combining that efficiency with Joel Embiid and James Harden’s ability to score from just about anywhere on the floor makes the 76ers an even bigger threat down the stretch.

Milwaukee Bucks

As the top seed in the Eastern Conference the Milwaukee Bucks are poised to make another run at the NBA title. However, as the regular season comes to a close, there are a few concerns.

Lately, the Bucks have been vulnerable on the defensive end of the floor. That may come as a surprise to some, especially considering that Milwaukee ranks third in Defensive Rating at 110.6.

However, in the past four games Milwaukee’s Defensive Rating spiked to 127.3, the third-highest rating in that timeframe. The reason for that 16.7 point increase was Milwaukee’s inability to defend the 3-point line. Opponents shot 43.6% from deep against Milwaukee.

Two of those four games came against the Nuggets and Celtics, two of the better offensive teams in the NBA, but the other two matchups came against the Pistons and Pacers. Detroit managed to score 117 points against Milwaukee and Indiana followed that up by scoring 136.

76ers-Bucks Pick

The season series between the 76ers and Bucks has been tight in every matchup, and I think that’ll be the case again here. That puts Philadelphia in a good spot to cover the spread as a road underdog.

Philadelphia is the best team in the NBA when it comes to covering the spread, owning a 45-31-1 ATS record per TeamRankings. The 76ers have also done well against the spread as an underdog this season, going 12-10 ATS.

Additionally, Philadelphia is 2-1 against the spread against Milwaukee this season.

Milwaukee’s vulnerability on the perimeter plays right into Philadelphia’s biggest strength, so I feel comfortable backing the 76ers on the spread. I would play this down to 2.5.

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