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Friday Tiebreakers Set to Impact Hawks' Pick Locations in 2018 Draft

Story by KL ChouinardTwitter: @KLChouinard

The Hawks will know a great deal more about their four picks in the 2018 NBA Draft when the NBA breaks its ties Friday afternoon.

The Hawks and the Dallas Mavericks finished with identical 24-58 records. Only Phoenix (21-61) and Memphis (22-60) earned fewer wins, so the Hawks and Mavericks tied for the third-worst record. The NBA will break the tie Friday.The team that wins gets the #3 pre-lottery spot: 138 combinations out of 1,000 in the lottery and a 13.8 percent chance at the #1 overall pick. The team that loses gets 137 combinations out of 1,000 and a 13.7% percent chance to get #1 pick. In terms of their chances at getting a top-3 pick, Atlanta and Dallas will have nearly identical odds regardless of who wins the tiebreaker.  But the tiebreaker still impacts the order for the draft in two key ways. 1) The Default Ordering (if neither team wins a top-3 pick) The tiebreaker determines the default ordering of the teams. The NBA lottery uses weighted odds to randomly select the ordering for the top three picks. Beyond the top three picks, however, the order is dictated by reverse-order of the standings – but the Hawks and Mavericks are tied at 24 wins. If neither the Hawks nor the Mavericks get a top-3 pick, then the winner of the tiebreak is guaranteed to finish with a lottery pick just in front of the loser of the tiebreak.  The winner of the tiebreaker and holder of the #3 pre-lottery spot is guaranteed to have a pick no worse than 6th. The loser of the tiebreaker and holder of the #4 pre-lottery spot is guaranteed to have a pick no worse than 7th. Moreover, the winner is significantly more likely to get the #4 (23.8 percent chance) pick than the loser (8.5 percent), who, in turn, is much more likely than the winner to end up 6th.[[{"fid":"119273","view_mode":"default","fields":{"format":"default","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"graph","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":""},"type":"media","attributes":{"alt":"graph","height":"392","width":"635","class":"media-element file-default"}}]]