Sam Smith analysis

Sam Smith

The Bulls are putting the band back together. But will it be able to hit the high notes?

That’s the musical and basketball question as the Bulls are poised to basically conclude their NBA free agency starting Thursday by resigning their new Mr. Fabulous, Jimmy Butler, and coming to terms with fellow sole men Mike Dunleavy and Aaron Brooks.

The moratorium on free agency signings expired 12:01 Eastern time Thursday. Although teams were not permitted to discuss or officially sign contracts with free agents until July 9, the Bulls reportedly were quick to address in informal talks their returning veterans, Butler and Dunleavy. Then earlier this week, the Bulls reportedly settled with Brooks on a return for a second season to back up Derrick Rose.

Meanwhile, it was another vibrant and, in some respects, shocking NBA free agency period, essentially presaging free agencies of 2016, 2017 and 2018, which are expected to be expansive with additional salary cap space for all teams from the new $2.4 billion TV contract with the NBA.

The big story was the free agency haul of the San Antonio Spurs, who drew a commitment from the prize summer free agent, Portland’s LaMarcus Aldridge. In perhaps the individual stunner of the summer, Pacers forward David West declined a $12.6 million option to remain with the Pacers and committed to a veteran’s minimum deal of about $1.5 million to join the Spurs and hopefully play for an NBA title. It’s arguably the biggest financial sacrifice a player has made in the name of joining a top team. Those moves along with the promised return of Kawhi Leonard on a long term deal, Danny Green and Manu Ginobili have established the Spurs as early title favorites along with Cleveland and defending champion Golden State.

But perhaps the biggest surprise was the theme of free agency, which was small market.

The Lakers and Knicks were basically shut out of all their top choices as free agents flocked to smaller markets where they believed they had a better chance to compete for a title or the playoffs. The biggest name player to do so was Detroit’s Greg Monroe, courted by the New York and Los Angeles. But Monroe committed to Milwaukee, virtually unheard of since small, out of the way, poor weather markets traditionally have been anathema to free agents. However, Marc Gasol, also courted by the Lakers and Knicks, elected to return to Memphis while super star of the future Anthony Davis said he’d agreed to a long term deal with New Orleans that will keep him there at least five more years.

These sorts of commitments to small market teams, especially over so called glamour markets, had basically been deemed impossible previously. But it’s something of a NFL-ization of the NBA as parity and equality spread throughout the league.

Cleveland with LeBron James also remained a destination again as Mo Williams passed up several offers to commit to a return while the Cavs also locked up Kevin Love long term and are the overwhelming favorite to come out of the Eastern Conference again.

But other Eastern teams fortified themselves as Miami will bring back Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic and now may have the most balanced and talented starting five in the East. The Wizards lost Paul Pierce to the Clippers but recouped with Gary Neal and Jared Dudley while Atlanta kept Paul Millsap and added Tiago Splitter, the latter the center they needed to give their front line more size. Though the Hawks did lose DeMarre Carroll to Toronto. The Raptors lost Lou Williams to the Lakers. The Pacers moved Roy Hibbert to the Lakers and lost West. But they planned to bring back Rodney Stuckey while getting a commitment from Monta Ellis. Brandan Wright committed to Memphis.

There was yet another surprise Wednesday on the eve of the players able to officially sign contracts. The Mavericks apparently had lured another major free agent, DeAndre Jordan, from big market Los Angeles and also gained a commitment from Wesley Matthews with Portland turning over its roster. But word surfaced Wednesday that Jordan was having second thoughts and might resign instead with the Clippers. That after Mavs owner Mark Cuban had even been fined $25,000 by the NBA for discussing the agreement with Jordan before the July 9 conclusion of the moratorium. Jordan ultimately spurned the Mavs to return to the Clippers. Wesley Matthews, however, was still said to be headed to the Mavericks.

Rajon Rondo will hook on with the Kings for one season to try to resurrect his market value after a lost season in Dallas. The Kings also dumped three players, including their lottery pick from last season, for more salary cap room. But they were essentially spurned and come into the season with an inflammatory circumstance and rumors of a DeMarcus Cousins trade or firing of coach George Karl.

The Knicks did get commitments from Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams and the Lakers from Hibbert, Williams and Brandon Bass. But all the top players bypassed the Lakers as they did the Celtics, the latter making a trade for David Lee and adding Amir Johnson. Thus it’s still well outside the playoffs and looking in for most of the prestigious markets while they wonder about the lures of Milwaukee, New Orleans and Memphis. And San Antonio, which is more than the Mexican cuisine.

It’s not a seismic shift in the NBA balance of power with the Cavaliers remaining the favorite in the Eastern Conference and the Spurs, who were contenders and upset early, rivaling the champion Warriors. With the return of Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka from injury, the Thunder also will be in the top West title mix. The Heat likely has moved up to a potential top four spot in the Eastern Conference with the Bulls. But it’s hardly guaranteed as the Bucks, Wizards and Pacers each could claim a top four East spot in a much stronger Eastern Conference.

So in the Western Conference, the playoff teams at this early stage look like the Spurs, Rockets, Warriors, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Thunder, Clippers and Jazz and Suns fighting for eighth with the Mavs apparently fading away.

In the Eastern Conference, it looks like the Cavs, Heat Bulls, Hawks, Wizards, Raptors, Pacers and Bucks with the Hornets and Pistons trying to upend someone for eighth.

Of course, that could change once the summer league games are played.

That also makes early losers of the Lakers, Knicks, Celtics, Rockets, Kings, Trailblazers and either the Mavs or Clippers, though there are still players to consider in trades. The 76ers? Who knows?

For the Bulls, it appeared to be an eventful/uneventful week and a half as they had the right to match any offer to Butler while Dunleavy apparently made it clear he likes the city and the team and wanted to return.

Most unexpected—or perhaps it shouldn’t have been—was the general league wide trend other than with David West, including with Butler, to take the money.

The speculation and some of it involving Butler was most players would seek short term deals to take advantage of the vastly increasing salary cap starting next year.

Instead, the majority of the players who apparently committed to deals opted for the longest deals they could get and generally with a players’ option for that final season. In Butler’s case, that would be in the fifth year.

Once Butler officially signs the contract, he will become the Bulls player owed the most money and with the longest commitment to the team. It’s seemingly contrary to reports Butler wanted a short team deal, the speculation being he was unhappy and would want to leave the team soon.

Instead, Butler apparently agreed to be locked into the team though the 2018-19 season. Going into 2015-16, Butler will be the only Bulls player on the roster with a guaranteed contract for that season.

Dunleavy’s deal is rumored to be for about $14.4 million over three years with a player option in the third year. Butler’s contract is estimated between $91 million and $95 million with a starting salary of about $16 million. Butler made $2 million last season after rejecting a four-year offer estimated at about $44 million to become a restricted free agent.

Since the actual salaries are based on the salary cap total (the players get a percentage), they cannot be calculated precisely yet since the new salary cap figures are finalized during the moratorium. Contracts also are based on seniority for veteran players and salary cap amounts in future years, so maximum deals can differ in amount.

Butler, who turns 26 in September, had his breakout year last season. He made the All-Star team and was named NBA Most Improved Player. He averaged 20 points to lead the team in scoring along with 5.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists. Butler’s career scoring average coming into the season was 8.9 on 31 percent three-point shooting. He shot 39.7 percent overall in 2013-14. Butler shot 37 percent on threes last season.

Dunleavy, who will be 35 in September, averaged 9.4 points and 3.9 rebounds last season while leading the team in three-point shooting at 41 percent. Pau Gasol shot 46 percent on threes, but with just 26 attempts. Dunleavy attempted 263. Dunleavy also reportedly was courted by the Cavaliers as LeBron James was said to have wanted Dunleavy to be like Mike Miller was for his team in Miami.

Brooks slumped in the playoffs. But he had a good season playing all 82 games and starting 21 as Rose had meniscus surgery. Brooks averaged 11.6 points and led the team in three pointers attempted. He shot 38.7 percent on threes and was the fourth leading scorer on the team.

The Bulls, thus, pretty much will have completed their roster for the 2015-16 season once the signings become official.

The budget and roster for the 2015-16 season would look something like this, according to published reports, with salaries in millions and approximations and the Bulls with one of the league’s highest payrolls and paying luxury tax:

bulls-get-the-band-back-together

Bulls get the band back together

Next act for the NBA is the future stars, and this 2015 draft on Thursday may have some.

There’s much anticipation and then often disappointment about recent NBA drafts because so many college freshman and teenagers, who dominate the top of these drafts, are not ready to step into a prime role in the NBA.

But this draft Thursday could prove an exception.

The general thinking for teams is they expect to get a  starter in the top five, a top six to seven rotation player from five through 10 and then after that in the rest of the first round to hope for an upset. It’s not that unusual, as  shown in Sunday’s Bulls.com draft story in a look back at the top drafts between 2003 and 2012.

Jimmy Butler, the No. 30 pick in 2011, is about to earn a maximum salary contract from the Bulls; however, players like Butler selected at the end of the first round are the exceptions.

But it is a potential star level top five in this draft with three big men and two point guards whom NBA executives say could be All-Stars within the next five years. There aren’t many drafts that boast that level of top talent.

The two top international players, center Kristaps Porzingis and wingman Mario Hezonja, are both regarded as can’t miss prospects despite traditional wariness about overhyped international players like Darko Milicic and Nikoloz Tskitishvili. There are players who supposedly can step in and help a good team, like Duke’s Justise Winslow and Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky. And there’ll be a run on point guards with teams like the Pacers, Thunder and Rockets in the market.

The Celtics and Lakers are the only teams with two first rounders, and most GMs expect the Celtics to be a big trade player this week in trying to move up and move players and one of the draft picks. The Celtics have multiple second rounders while the 76ers have five second rounders and certainly aren’t using all of them. And in an oddity, there are probably a half dozen left handed players who figure to be first round picks. Whatever that means.

Here’s a look at the best players by position:

top-5-draft-prospects-by-position

Top 5 Draft Prospects by Position

childukich

The contents of this page have not been reviewed or endorsed by the Chicago Bulls. All opinions expressed by Sam Smith are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of the Chicago Bulls or its Basketball Operations staff, parent company, partners, or sponsors. His sources are not known to the Bulls and he has no special access to information beyond the access and privileges that go along with being an NBA accredited member of the media.

That was too easy, but will it be worth the wait?

It really should be as the Cleveland Cavaliers with the generally recognized best player in the game in LeBron James face the league’s winningest team with the MVP, Stephen Curry. It’s as classic as you can get for an NBA championship. It starts 8 p.m. Thursday on ABC.

The two teams have been so dominant in the playoffs that it’s resulted in the longest ever break for two teams between the end of the conference finals and the start of the NBA Finals, seven days off. The NBA establishes a Finals date and given travel and housing arrangements for the thousands of media and fans coming from around the world it’s too difficult to change dates, much like a Super Bowl. Though it hasn’t been uncommon for teams in the last decade to have five off days before the start of the Finals. The champion Bulls once had eight off days when in 1996 they swept the Magic and made Shaq scared to play while Seattle went seven games with Utah. The Bulls closed on May 27 and the Finals began June 5.

The Bulls then won the first three games of the Finals, the narrative then being rest is good. Rest, however, is bad when you lose.

No excuses this time as both teams pretty much got the same time off with Golden State closing out Houston May 27, a day after the Cavs sweep. It’s given Klay Thompson enough time to recover from a concussion in the last game while the Cavs got additional rest for Kyrie Irving, though Irving said he’s still not near recovered from lower extremity ills.

Though none of that should take away from the dominant theme which seems to favor the Warriors: Is it better to have the best player or the best team?

History generally favors the best team theory, like last season when the San Antonio Spurs smothered James, Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat. When Miami beat the Spurs in 2013, the Heat also were the winningest team with the best player.

The Warriors come in with the league’s best regular season record of 67-15 and 12-3 in the playoffs for a remarkable 79-18. The Cavs were 53-29 in the regular season and 12-2 in the playoffs with sweeps over Boston and Atlanta. LeBron James is giving Oscar Robertson’s marks a run, averaging 27.6 points, 10.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists in the playoffs in one dominant performance after another. And that’s with shooting under 20 percent on threes. Imagine if he could make shots.

The history of these sorts of matchups greatly favors the more well balanced team, which suggests Golden State.

In 1964, Wilt Chamberlain was the dominant player of the era, but his then San Francisco Warriors lost to the Hall of Fame laden Boston Celtics. Boston was just a 48-win team in 1969, however, so not the best in Bill Russell’s last season when they defeated Wilt and the Lakers by a basket in Game 7.

In 1970, it was the quintessential team as the New York Knicks with their balanced attack defeated the Lakers with Wilt and Jerry West. The Knicks also did in 1973, but it was the Lakers with more wins. And Wilt wasn’t the dominant scorer any longer.

The 1974 Boston Celtics with Dave Cowens were a vintage team to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks with the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, though the Bucks also had a better record. There was no true one dominant player above the others in the 1980s with Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Julius Erving and Moses Malone.

Then the Bulls dynasty teams of the 1990s generally had the better record along with having the dominant player in Michael Jordan. In 1993, the Phoenix Suns had the best record. But it would be difficult to suggest the Suns were a better overall team given Dan Majerle was their second leading scorer.

Then it was on to 2007 with James the league’s best player and the Spurs team dominating in the Finals.

In 2008, the more versatile Boston Celtics team defeated the Lakers with the best player in Kobe Bryant. In 2010 when the Lakers defeated the Celtics, the Lakers also were the better all around team.

The best team generally beats the best player.

Unless the best player’s team has been the more dominant team that season.

This Finals also is the return to the 2-2-1-1-1 format.

The Finals schedule is Thursday-Sunday-Tuesday. There are two-day breaks between—if necessary, of course, and we hope—Game 4 and Game 5 and Game 6 and Game 7. Those are both travel periods, so the change of cities at the end should not become an issue.

The teams met twice in the regular season with little to be gleaned at this time, the last meeting Feb. 26. Though it was a James statement of sorts with Curry the frontrunner for MVP. James scored a season high 42 points in a 110-99 Cavs runaway that even had Brendan Haywood and Joe Harris playing. Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 31 points on 10 of 30 shooting while Irving had 24. A month before on Jan. 9 in Oakland, Curry and Thompson combined for 47 points in a 112-94 Golden State victory. James, however, didn’t play as he was on his two-week mid season hiatus in Florida. J.R. Smith led the Cavs that game with 27.

The Cavs have morphed a few times this season, first with major trades for Timofey Mozgov, Iman Shumpert and Smith and then with Kevin Love being injured in the first round series against Boston. After a brain cramp of starting James Jones against the Bulls in Game 1 of the conference semifinals, the Cavs went with Tristan Thompson, an impressive offensive rebounder. It’s made the Cavs a much better defensive team, though everything revolves around James on the offensive end. Many view the health of Irving as a deciding factor given his ability to be a high level scorer who can make his own plays.

The Warriors bring the essence of the game with the spectacular shooting backcourt, though Thompson has been inconsistent in the playoffs. They’re the new fun-to-watch version of last season’s Spurs with active ball movement, player movement, unselfish play and hustling defense. Their home court advantage, where they are 46-3 this season, has been the best in the game. They have the home court advantage to start the series by virtue of the better regular season record.

It’s also the Warriors with their 40-year championship drought and the Cavs without a title and Cleveland not celebrating since the Browns in 1964. There’s James playing in his fifth consecutive Finals and every Warriors player in his first. And the rookie coaches, though Cleveland’s David Blatt pretty much bristles about that with his international coaching resume.

The matchups with be evolving and changing like most in these playoffs and the NBA these days. Both teams like to go to small lineups, the Warriors especially to enhance their shooting and switching defenses. And James will pretty much move around and play different players. Though the Cavs do like to “rest” him on a weak offensive player at times, that will be difficult with the Warriors varied offense.

It finally begins Thursday, and it should be worth the wait.

Cleveland Cavaliers 53-29 (12-2) vs Golden State Warriors 67-15 (12-3)

Point Guard: Kyrie Irving vs Stephen Curry

It’s going to be difficult for Irving to chase around Curry with Irving’s knee problems, which flared up during the Bulls series. Irving still is the Cavs second leading scorer at 18.7 per game and shooting 48 percent on threes. So he can make a difference. But it’s tough to find a weak offensive player for him to defend. Draymond Green, for example, would just bull him into the post. Shooting guard Iman Shumpert probably will defend Curry often, though Thompson is too physical for Irving. Curry is averaging 29.2 in the playoffs and is likely voted the player most want to watch with his trick dribbling and quick draw shooting. And then bringing his daughter to the post game interviews. But look out Curry? Matthew “the battering ram” Dellavedova is in reserve and he’s already taken a few guys out of these playoffs.

Shooting Guard: Iman Shumpert vs Klay Thompson

Though Thompson hasn’t been spectacular, like his 37-point quarter this season, he’s averaging 19.7 in the playoffs. There are few backcourts that matchup with them, anyway. Shumpert is probably the Cavs best perimeter defender unless LeBron wants to try, though with Irving ailing they need his offense too much to ask him to constantly defend one of the “Splash Brothers” guards. Shumpert has come from Knicks purgatory with Smith to average 10.1 points in the playoffs and make some timely threes against the Bulls in the only series the Cavs were challenged.

Small Forward: LeBron James vs Harrison Barnes

James played Mike Dunleavy extensively against the Bulls and probably will remain on Barnes. Barnes probably will start on James, but James will see different defenders, like Andre Iguodala and Draymond Green. Though Jimmy Butler did as good as he could against James, it’s more advisable to show him different looks. Also, you don’t want to double team James as his court vision and sense is as good as anyone’s in the game. The Cavs are at their best when they can get scoring elsewhere. You almost want to ask James to get 40. Of course, when he did in February the Cavs beat up the Warriors. As there are no ready solutions for Curry and Thompson, there are none for James. The Cavs need his three-point shot to return. The Cavs could try to put their weakest defender in Irving on Barnes to try to force the Warriors to adjust and go to Barnes with the mismatch, which isn’t their philosophy. It’s unlikely they’d fall for that sort of trap.

Kidding, LeBron. Wanted to make sure you still were playing attention.

Power Forward: Tristan Thompson vs Draymond Green

The Cavs have become a tougher team with Thompson at power forward, but he has basically no offensive game other than the offensive boards. He goes hard and is effective, but the Warriors will come flying out with rebounds with almost anyone dribbling out and passing ahead and it’s trouble if Thompson is caught back. The Cavs will go with James often at power forward to open the court and provide more speed. Green has been the Warriors’ Swiss Army knife from Saginaw, able to switch and defend just about every position. His three-point shooting has been down in the playoffs. But he’s second to Curry in assists and keeps the ball moving in the pivotal move coach Steve Kerr made in starting him over David Lee, who rarely plays anymore. He could take Thompson away from the basket, changing the Cavs’ front court and maybe with LeBron then defending him.

Bogut doesn’t even look to score with all the acts going on in the Warriors offense. But he will be a good counter for the physical Mozgov. It’s probably as motivated about basketball the indifferent Bogut ever has been. He’s a good shot blocker and adequate passer and should be able to offset some of the pick and roll James likes to run with Mozgov. Mozgov was an emergency addition when Anderson Varejao was injured, but Mozgov fits better with his more physical style and ability to make a short jumper.

Matthew Dellavedova, J.R. Smith and James Jones against Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, Leandro Barbosa, Festus Ezeli and perhaps a return of Marreese Speights. This is a tough one for the Cavs and where the loss of Love hurts so much as their veteran backups like Shawn Marion and Mike Miller have pretty much dried up. Their X-factor is Smith and his threes, which are going up guarded or not, needed or not. The Warriors go deep into their bench for a playoff team with players flying into the game and pushing the ball, which has to be wearing for the Cavs. Ezeli is an underrated big man with skill and Iguodala would start for most NBA teams, including the Cavs.

Blatt was moments from infamy with the famed Game 4 timeout the refs didn’t see against the Bulls that could have made that series 3-1 Bulls and saved the job of Tom Thibodeau. That’s how little difference there can be between greatness and bitterness. Blatt has been under scrutiny and condemnation, as coaches often are with James around since he gets a lot of credit. But Blatt has basically handled himself well and proved to be a good NBA coach. He’s not quite the offensive genius as advertised, but who is besides guys like Curry? Kerr has been the new coaching rage of the NBA, the model for the Bulls’ hiring of Fred Hoiberg, a young, personable and innovative alchemist who has been able to turn the steel of a strong team into the gold of a true title contender.

sam-smiths-nba-finals-preview

Sam Smith's NBA Finals Preview

So how do the Bulls get Frank Kaminsky? Or Jerian Grant? Or Tyus Jones?

But Tuesday just before the Golden State Warriors defeated the Houston Rockets in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, the NBA conducted its lottery drawing. The Minnesota Timberwolves with the greatest odds by having the poorest record landed the No. 1 pick. The Los Angeles Lakers moved up in the drawing to No. 2 while the New York Knicks sunk back to No. 4. New York had the second poorest record. The Philadelphia 76ers stayed at No. 3. Otherwise, the lottery order remained according to record.

It’s not likely the Bulls get too involved in this draft with the No. 22 pick in the first round. The Bulls second round pick goes to Orlando as part of the Doug McDermott deal last year to clear salary cap room by trading Anthony Randolph.

The Bulls probably will just end up using their No. 22 pick, which should produce a competent backup player. After all, the Bulls have been one of the best teams in the league for finding talent with late first round picks. Three of their current eight rotation players were drafted between Nos. 23 and 30 with Nikola Mirotic No. 23 in 2011, Taj Gibson No. 26 in 2009 and Jimmy Butler No. 30 in 2011.

Perhaps the bigger issue is the Bulls already have arguably too many young players. And a lottery pick in McDermott, who basically didn’t play this season. McDermott played just 321 minutes in 36 games. In the Bulls 12 playoff games, McDermott played in just three for a total of 9:33. The Bulls cashed in two first round draft picks last year to move up to No. 11 to select McDermott.

So McDermott will surely have a regular role this season. It’s basically unprecedented not to even give a lottery pick a chance for two years. Plus, Mirotic in his first playoffs had a tough time. After a brilliant March and finish of the season and making all-rookie and Rookie of the Year runnerup, Mirotic averaged 5.7 points in the playoffs. He shot 30.3 percent overall and 23.3 percent on threes. He obviously needs some regular playing time. And so does Tony Snell, who averaged just 3.9 points in the playoffs. Snell shot 34 percent overall averaging 12 minutes played. Mirotic averaged about 15 minutes per game.

The Bulls still have their veteran core in Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Kirk Hinrich. But the team has several inexperienced players to begin working into the rotation. So it would seem unlikely they’d make a big move to add another rookie, especially when McDermott will essentially be having his rookie season again.

The Bulls don’t have a history of moving up in the draft, especially using players to do so. They did last year because they had the two first round picks, their own at No. 19 and Charlotte’s from the Tyrus Thomas trade in the rare season, unfortunate for the Bulls, that the Hornets made the playoffs. The Bulls swapped Nos. 16 and 19 with Denver for the rights to No. 11 to take McDermott. Denver used the picks for Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris. It still looks like a good deal for the Bulls even if they misused, or failed to use, McDermott this past season.

The Bulls haven’t gotten lucky as they negotiated the right to swap draft picks with the Cavaliers this season from the Luol Deng trade. But then LeBron James returned to Cleveland and the Cavs predictably ended with a lower pick than the Bulls’. So they won’t pursue that. The Bulls from that same Deng trade also got a Sacramento first protected one through 10. The Bulls won’t get the pick this season as the Kings got the No. 6 pick. But the Bulls still have the rights to the Kings pick in 2016 and 2017 if it is not top 10. With George Karl in as coach, the chances are the Kings could move out of the bottom 10 in the league.

Still, that leaves the Bulls with basically just No. 22 for this season.

Would it be worth it to trade their pick and, say, someone like Gibson, to move up four or five or maybe eight spots to get someone like local star Kaminsky or teammate Sam Dekker? Gibson’s name has come up nationally in conjecture as perhaps the player, if not likely to be traded, then most speculated upon.

That’s likely to continue as the Bulls have a crowd up front and probably want to find a more regular role at shooting power forward for Mirotic. But any trade could prove risky since Noah has had knee problems and enters the final season of his contract in 2015-16. Plus, Gasol turns 35 this summer and has played about 40,000 minutes in his career. It would be a big risk to move Gibson for potential when there is little assurance about the futures of Noah and Gasol.

Mike Dunleavy and Aaron Brooks are unrestricted free agents. Their returns are uncertain given Brooks probably earned above the minimum deal he has with the Bulls and while the Bulls value Dunleavy they have McDermott and Snell in line at small forward waiting for playing time. The Bulls are expected to settle a contract or match any offer for Butler. He could sign a modest one-year qualifying offer and then become an unrestricted free agent able to choose his destination after next season. But it would seem an outsized risk to pass up tens of millions of dollars for a second consecutive season and risk injury. By all accounts, the Bulls want to make a deal. Kirk Hinrich has an option for next season he is expected to pick up to return. E’Twaun Moore likely will return as the Bulls have an option and Nazr Mohammed could try to play another season, though it would be unclear where. He also was underutilized this past season.

Here a first, early look at the first round up to and including the Bulls pick:

1. Minnesota Timberwolves:  Jahlil Okafor, Duke, 6-11, 275.  Most NBA executives seem to prefer Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns as the top pick and prospect because of his versatility. But the ‘wolves, who got the 2013 and 2014 No. 1 overall draft picks in the Kevin Love trade, have been rumored for awhile interested in the Chicago product for their anemic offense.

2. Los Angeles Lakers: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, 7-0, 250. They’re not likely to break through to the playoffs quite yet, but they are the early draft winner. They faced losing their pick altogether by falling to six. Instead, they had the big jump and can get a big man to complement injured 2014 Kentucky rookie Julius Randle. It would be a big time start to a return to being the Lakers.

3. Philadelphia 76ers:  D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State, 6-5, 193. The losers again, which has been their habit, though this time they weren’t trying. They had an outside chance to get three lottery picks if the Lakers and Heat slipped. Instead, they end with one and basically get to replace Michael Carter-Williams. Russell’s a good addition with versatile skills.

4. New York Knicks: Emmanuel Mudiay, Congo/China, 6-5, 200. OK, maybe they were bigger losers. The Knicks had to blow off the season after basically falling apart. Then the hope became getting a big man for Phil Jackson’s rebuilding project. OK, plan B. Mudiay is regarded by some executives as maybe the elite talent of the draft. But Jackson isn’t building for five years from now with Carmelo Anthony. The pick will be in play, but since Jackson needs a star from the draft he likely won’t be offered enough. Hey, Walt Frazier was young once and from Southern Illinois, which can like a foreign country.

5. Orlando Magic: Justise Winslow, Duke, 6-6, 222. They’re putting together a lot of young talent for some coach. There’s a lot of talk for this point in the draft about the two talented international players, Kristaps Porzingis and Mario Hezonja. But they’ve had enough adding talent. They have to start to make a move, and though you don’t do it much with rookies figure they go for the talented player who is closer to ready.

6. Sacramento Kings: Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, 7-1, 242. You could make a joke out of this one as he’s kind of a flake, dying his hair for the interviews and changing his name. What a perfect team for him to join with DeMarcus Cousins, eh? But as an elite defender, especially for his size, he’s an ideal fit with Cousins. New GM Vlade Divac says the Kings need to have more fun. He should help.

7. Denver Nuggets: Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia, 6-11, 220. They need talent just about everywhere and he’s supposedly the most available. This is how impressive Nikola Mirotic has been. He’s compared with Mirotic. He’s a deep shooting, albeit skinny, power forward. Mike D’Antoni is a possible coaching replacement and would fit his style of play. They’ll hope no one recalls the Nikoloz Tskitishvili pick.

8. Detroit Pistons: Stanley Johnson, Arizona, 6-6, 242. It’s probably time to move beyond Caron Butler and Tayshaun Prince. He’s a strong guy, tough and with an all around solid game for a building team that has a shot at making the playoffs this season.

9. Charlotte Hornets: Devin Booker, Kentucky, 6-6 206. Shooting, shooting, shooting. Hey, did anyone mention shooting for them? It’s a hard working team that just can’t find anyone, or enough guys, to make shots. A good defender as well who should be a good fit.

10. Miami Heat: Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin, 7-1, 231. The local product will be a nice addition with a smart team that executes offense. Chris Bosh will return, so he can team with him as both are versatile and can shoot. A mature guy ready to play, tall but short armed. But smart.

11. Indiana Pacers: Jerian Grant, Notre Dame, 6-4, 198. Good genes as Harvey’s son and Horace’s nephew and a big time playmaker. They most need a point guard. He’s got good size and also can make shots, a heck of an addition for a team getting Paul George back and ready to be back in contention for the Eastern title.

12. Utah Jazz: Cameron Payne, Murray State, 6-2, 183. They’ve pretty much got all their positions except point guard, though they’ve drafted a few with that title if not that game. They made a strong move at the end of last season and if they can get a point guard who is a playmaker they can knock on the playoff door.

13. Phoenix Suns: Trey Lyles, Kentucky, 6-10, 242. It was tough to rate all those Kentucky guys with their two platoon system. But he’s a polished big man who can produce with good size and strength, both needed with the small ball Suns.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder: Mario Hezonj, Croatia, 6-7, 200. He’s considered a big time small forward talent, though playing in Spain and perhaps he doesn’t even come to the NBA this season. Some executives see him as a top five talent. And with Kevin Durant returning they probably can wait more than others as they’ve been known for taking risks that work out.

15. Atlanta Hawks: Myles Turner, Texas, 6-11 239. Something you don’t hear much about top prospects is uncertainty about the way he runs and if he has to work on that. Everyone says it can be fixed. OK. He’s big and long and the Hawks don’t have much of that with this gift pick from the Nets. Also he has good shooting range to fit their style.

16. Boston Celtics: Bobby Portis, Arkansas, 6-11, 246. Big guy with a skilled game. And they probably won’t get Kevin Love this summer. Has NBA size and a solid face up game.

17. Milwaukee Bucks: Sam Dekker, Wisconsin, 6-9, 219. Local favorite from the NCAA runs who is a shot maker and a good athlete to go with a developing young team with an emphasis on guys that size who can play multiple defensive positions.

18. Houston Rockets: Tyus Jones, Duke, 6-2 185. Selection from the Pelicans. The Rockets badly need a point guard and he’s a favorite of the pros and could move up from here given his aggressive play possibilities. Though not very big, the pros love his leadership abilities.

19. Washington Wizards: Kevon Looney, UCLA, 6-9, 222. Not necessarily because Gortat said so, but they need a front court guy who can stretch the floor. He’s probably the best there is this far down in the draft.

20. Toronto Raptors: Kelly Oubre, Kansas, 6-7, 203. An athlete who can defend and fit in at small forward. They haven’t quite found a role for Terrence Ross and perhaps they could look to move him for a big man with adding a small forward.

21. Dallas Mavericks: R.J. Hunter, Georgia State 6-6: 185. The best shooter left and we know how popular that is in the NBA these days. They’ll be all about free agency again, so who knows what the roster will look like. So shooting is good.

22. Bulls: Delon Wright, Utah, 6-6, 181. Fits the Bulls profile of a senior ready to contribute. Not because Derrick Rose’s health is an issue, but you always need insurance and you need a backup. He’s got good size, defends, is mature and projects as a solid rotation reserve.

There are other picks to be made, but we’ll be waiting for Gar at this point.

sam-smiths-2015-nba-mock-draft

Sam Smith's 2015 NBA Mock Draft

Bulls.com

The NBA’s final four (small letters with no sappy song at the end) begins Tuesday with the Houston Rockets against the Golden State Warriors. The Eastern Conference final opens Wednesday in Atlanta with the Cleveland Cavaliers playing the Hawks.

That would be the No. 1 vs No. 2 regular season teams in each conference meeting one another for the right to play for the NBA title. Of course, looking at it another way, perhaps we didn’t have to spend that much time with the playoffs since the No. 1 and No. 2 teams are where they should be, playing an elimination for the Finals.

The first game Tuesday gets a warm up act with the NBA draft lottery to determine which of the teams not much trying to win ultimately succeeded. Though not by that much as there isn’t a LeBron-esque gotta-have-him No. 1 pick this year. There never really is anymore with the top players leaving college after a year, or basically after John Calipari shouts, “Next!”

There’s plenty of uncertainty about the top pick, supposedly either Kentucky’s Karl Towns or Duke’s Jahlil Okafor. Though there’s a sense that it’s maybe a little like 2005 when the big guys, Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams, went 1-2, and then came the difference making guards, Chris Paul and Deron Williams. And it is a guard oriented NBA now as the conference finals suggest.

Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay who skipped college to play in China, and Duke’s Justise Winslow are supposed to be the next three and perhaps much more ready prospects than either of the top two.

It also so happens the Western Conference headliners are the Warriors’ Stephen Curry, the league’s Most Valuable Player, and Houston’s James Harden, the runner up, both the leading scorers on their teams and guards.

In the East, it’s LeBron James at basically every position, but sort of a hybrid power postup point guard since he runs the offense, bringing the ball up and also making plays for the shooters out of the post. Probably charting plays of the Western games on his day off. As the brilliant Mel Brooks prophesized, it is good to be the king. And then there’s the Hawks, or as they said in Atlanta, “Go figure.” That’s a 60-win team? Hey, the regular season said so. And the Bulls, Wizards, Raptors and the like aren’t laughing so hard now.

It’s been a heck of a playoffs, if surprisingly only in the lack of surprise that pretty much no one figured three of the four teams still playing would still be playing. LeBron, OK. You never have him out early. Of course, anytime he doesn’t win the title we can all say, “See, he’s no Jordan.” He is pretty tough, however, and has a good one going here. We thought it was amazing he got championship rings for Gary Payton, Antoine Walker and Rashard Lewis. But for J.R. Smith, Matthew Dellavedova and Timofey Mozgov? Now, that would be something.

When the season began, sure LeBron was in that, “hey, maybe” category. But not Atlanta, Golden State and Houston. Of course, but who? That’s one reason they are there because no one could figure who should be there.

The Heat melted down once LeBron left, and though the San Antonio Spurs were everyone’s “uh oh, watch out,” they proved the conventional wisdom that there was no dominant team this season. And the way these things work if you have brackets and games then someone has to win and move on.

That 1 vs 2 thing was clear enough in the East as the Hawks and Cavs did pretty much look like the best even if the Hawks didn’t quite dominate.

Though the Rockets were technically No. 2, it wasn’t exactly with great vision since if the Spurs had won their last game of the season they would have been No. 2 with home court. Instead, they fell to No. 6 in the wild and wacky West. Still, the lesson about the regular season proved useful. By getting that Game 7 at home, the Rockets were able to defeat the Clippers. It matters. The Clippers won a home Game 7 to knock out the defending champion Spurs.

Yes, after the first round it meant a new champion.

So it made for one of the better playoffs in recent memory because there was real mystery. It became a heck of a lot of, “Why not us.”

There was loads of great stuff, as good as any being the back to back buzzer beater winners in the Bulls-Cavs series by Derrick Rose and LeBron James. Paul Pierce got one and called “Game,” and then came a fraction late to force a Game 7. Chris Paul had the Willis Reed award moment with his Game 7 pulled hamstring performance to knock out the Spurs and Curry had an amazing three to force overtime that preserved the Warriors first round sweep. Anthony Davis introduced himself again averaging more than 30 points and 10 rebounds in his first playoff experience.

The playoffs, of course, are about winners and losers, and pretty much everyone is a winner who gets to the conference finals. Maybe not LeBron, as he’s judged on Jordan and championships. But even the 67-win Warriors cannot be judged a loser after losing in the first round last year with basically the same team.

Plus, there is winning in losing even in the playoffs. It didn’t help Monty Williams, but it was a win for the Pelicans to get there, and especially the way they did with a win over the Spurs on the last day when the Spurs needed a win. It was a win for the Bucks playing the Bulls even until Game 6, which probably should have been a bigger tipoff about the Bulls. It was a win for the Wizards. Even though they went as far as they did last season, they were impressive even with John Wall out and pulled off maybe the biggest surprise the way they swept the Raptors. The Celtics also were winners competing as well as they did, though the Cavs still are mad for the Kevin Love injury that knocked him out of the playoffs—another big story—and provoking J.R. Smith, which isn’t that difficult.

Losers included the Raptors for even further minimizing the value of a division title, the Trailblazers for going out so quickly and perhaps provoking a bigger loss with the free agency of LaMarcus Aldridge, the Clippers blowing that 3-1 lead to a Rockets team that seemed ready to give up and Chris Paul being tattooed now with the second-round-and-done label. There was the Mavericks, who basically came apart with all their moves gone bad and basically cut Rajon Rondo during the playoffs. Make it just disappointing for the Spurs losing early as you can’t condemn them after consecutive Finals appearances and a tough seven-game series. They’ll never be losers. The Bulls, however, have to go onto that list with an opportunity squandered with Love out, Smith suspended and Rose back in All-Star form and still losing in six games. They’ll remember this one perhaps as much as the Clippers will regret their two weeks.

How do you beat LeBron? Heck, the Hawks did it three of four times this season. Kyrie Irving is expected to play after some sort of aggravation in Game 6 against the Bulls. Not to say he was acting a bit, but he sure scored a lot of points with such a bad injury. He obviously was hurt in some regard, but it doesn’t seem serious.

Still, without Love this makes it a very competitive series. The Hawks have a bothersome lineup for the Cavs’ Mozgov and Tristan Thompson because of the way Al Horford and Paul Millsap shoot from outside. Neither of the Cavs’ bigs is very mobile moving outside. Horford probably is most responsible for winning the series with Washington. And the Cavs small lineup is too small with Smith, Iman Shumpert, Dellavedova and James Jones. Kendrick Perkins? The Hawks can pray he plays. The Hawks are a tough team to play the way they are all small ball, moving and passing and shooting threes. All the teams still playing were in the top five this season in made three pointers. Memo to Bulls: Shooting! But the Hawks’ shooters seem to have worn down some with the additional defensive pressure of the playoffs. They’ve got a shot at the Cavs, and DeMarre Carroll, much like Jimmy Butler, does a good job on LeBron, or as good as one can. The Hawks were one of the best teams this season pressuring James and Irving and basically challenging the other guys, frustrating LeBron some in a regular season Hawks win.

“I can't be worried about the Hawks right now. It's not like we're going to face them in the first round," James said then. "It was the first time they used that game plan on us (pressuring he and Irving). They kind of caught us by surprise. Down the road if we get to that point, we'll be all right."

Those other guys were better against the Bulls. Can they still be? The Bulls didn’t do a very good job of that. If the Hawks can they could pull the upset, at least as upsets go when you’ve won 60 games and have home court advantage.

This is going to be one big time shoot ‘em up even if San Francisco has the strictest weapons bans. There even were some hard feelings—not the level of Warriors and Clippers—but Curry got into it with Trevor Ariza in the last regular season game as the Warriors won all four by double digits, a 15 per game winning margin. And that was when the Rockets had Patrick Beverley, their best perimeter defender, and Donatas Montiejunas, a reliable interior scorer.

Harden and Jason Terry guarding Curry and Klay Thompson? It’s getting tough to figure how the Rockets will win a game, let alone the series. The Warriors have been the healthiest team and have a tough defense. Draymond Green will ride Harden and Andrew Bogut will get in the way of Dwight Howard. Howard even taunted them the last time they met, saying the Hawks were better. “They’ve (Atlanta) got the best record, right. I thought they were the best team. They play well, they move the ball, the defense and offense has been great this year.”

The Warriors, if Howard hadn’t noticed, have excellent depth and will run in better defenders off the bench than the Rockets have anywhere on the team. Though reaching the conference finals was a huge win for the Rockets, who perennially have been a first round out team and had the most unlikely series win to get to the conference finals. It seemed fairly obvious all the Rockets players brought golf clubs to Game 5 and the Clippers refused to win. And nobody in the playoffs has been worse defensively. The Warriors averaged 115 against them this season and 129 the two games Howard played. If anyone has seen a Rockets players challenge a jump shot in these playoffs raise your hand. At least someone would.  These Warriors will be so close now to the first Finals in 40 years there should be no holding them back.

sam-smiths-conference-finals-preview

Sam Smith's Conference Finals preview

“While one may encounter many defeats, one must not be defeated.”

And so the Bulls’ 2014-15 season ends with arguably their worst loss of the season at the most vital time, the closeout game of the conference semifinal against rival LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, who defeated the Bulls 94-73.

It perhaps sets back the Bulls farther than they imagined, now five and 16 in four playoff series losses to a James team in the last six years, unable to make progress against James even as he played with a shorthanded team and Thursday had just 15 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds. So it raises questions about the future of coach Tom Thibodeau, of whether personnel changes are coming after falling so rapidly after winning the first game of the series in Cleveland and whether the Bulls overestimated what they had.

“That’s the goal every year, (a title),” said Joakim Noah. “Come in every year focused, give (us) a shot. Right now we’re disappointed; it always takes time to digest a season, a lot of ups and down. Right now, I think everybody is hurt, everybody is down. Disappointed with the way the season ended.”

It ended pretty much midway through the second quarter after a spirited 12-6 Bulls start behind Rose pushing the ball in transition and Pau Gasol fighting back from a hamstring injury for eight first quarter points. Though the Bulls trailed 33-31 after one, they were scoring and shooting well (56.5 percent in the quarter), Gasol looked lively, Jimmy Butler was holding down James, two of seven shooting in the quarter, and the expectant home crowd was rocking.

Then early in the second quarter, Kyrie Irving buckled in a collision with teammate Tristan Thompson and had to leave for the game after scoring six points in the first quarter. With Kevin Love out for the series and now Irving heading for the locker room, it was looking more and more like a Game 7 Sunday in Cleveland. And we all know that’s the anything can happen game.

The Bulls pulled ahead 40-38 on a Nikola Mirotic offensive rebound score and one of two free throws after taking J.R. Smith into the post. But the game would soon change dramatically when Mirotic reached across trying to stop a driving Iman Shumpert. Mirotic got Shumpert across the neck for what would be called a flagrant foul while Mirotic would peer over Shumpert. Shumpert, the Oak Park native, made one of two free throws and then a jumper and a three, yelling and cursing afterward at Mirotic after each.

“I think that was the wrong guy to clothesline in his home town,” said Cavs coach David Blatt. “He is really a tough guy besides being a heck of a basketball player. It seemed to really wake him up.”

The Bulls basically never recovered; it’s not a group that quits, but they seemed to, at least, give in. Shumpert hit another three and J.R. Smith added one for a 20-4 run to end the half, the Cavs taking a 58-44 halftime lead. The Bulls then opened the second half missing 10 of their first 11 shots, reverting to their slow paced, heavy play call, stagnant offense with one screen or dribble handoff and shot. They’d pushed the ball in that first quarter, swung for open shots. Now it was back to running down the shot clock and the season. Butler had a little run at the end of the third to get the Bulls within 73-60. But then Dellavedova playing for Irving shot the Bulls out of it to open the fourth and midway through the period the arena was emptying with the Cavs leading by 25.

“For whatever reason we couldn’t really channel our best effort and that’s really been the story all year long,” said Mike Dunleavy. “Since that Game 6 in Milwaukee, we just couldn’t get it going. We have a lot of talent, at our best as good as anybody, and a lot of high expectations. If you would have told me at the beginning of the series about all of Cleveland’s ailments, I would have really liked our chances. We just could not figure it out for whatever reason, whether it be chemistry or injuries. I just can’t put a finger on it. We couldn’t put it together.”

The most frequent question hanging over the team this season has been the fate of coach Tom Thibodeau.
“Until they tell me I’m not, I expect to be here,” Thibodeau said when asked post game about if he’ll be back. “That’s how I’m approaching it.”

Thibodeau has been rumored as a top candidate for vacant positions in Orlando and New Orleans, but Thibodeau said he hasn’t thought about that.

Thibodeau is 255-139 in five seasons with the Bulls, one of the best regular season records in the league in that span. It’s a winning mark of 64 percent. But the Bulls are 23-28 in the playoffs under Thibodeau, a 45 percent success rate. Plus, the Bulls have twice lost in the first round to lower seeds, though one was in 2012 when Rose suffered his ACL injury. The Bulls have lost to James teams in the playoffs three times in five games and this season in six.

Players generally don’t want to be involved in management decisions regarding coaching, but all basically supported Thibodeau.

“Me and Thibs really grew a relationship after the season last year when I was coming back with USA Basketball,” said Rose. “Went to eat with him at least a couple of times when we were out there. He was working me out every day while we were with USA Basketball. If it’s a feud or whatever is going on I just hope they fix it. I don’t mind him as a coach. We don’t talk about it (Thibodeau’s situation). When you have times you go six minutes without scoring it’s bigger than a coach. It’s all about the players. He came out to L.A. to check on me when I was working out after my surgeries. It’s not my decision. I love him as a coach.”

“Thibs is a hard worker, somebody who always has had us prepared,” said Noah. “We don’t know what the situation is with anybody. We lost in the second round, but a lot of great memories. It’s not my decision.”

“He has done a great job,” said Dunleavy. “He’s given us everything he has every single day and anyone would want a coach like that. We have a lot of great guys in this group and we will better next year.”

Dunleavy has said he’d love to return. He is an unrestricted free agent who has been a vital all around contributor. But the Bulls want to see Doug McDermott and Tony Snell play more. So Dunleavy’s fate is uncertain. Nazr Mohammed likely will retire. Aaron Brooks is the third unrestricted free agent and probably will get an offer above his minimum deal with the Bulls. Jimmy Butler is a restricted free agent and the Bulls have been on record saying they will match any offer for Butler, so his return seems certain.

The Bulls are over the salary cap, but they are limited in even using their mid level exception given the maximum salary Butler likely will command. So an addition seems uncertain. They have one first round draft pick, No. 22. So the current core likely will be together another season without any significant change.

“This team has more potential,” said Gasol. “We showed at times our potential. In order to be a great team, a championship caliber team, you have to be little more consistent than we have been. Injuries have been a factor, but that happens to most teams. We just have to mature and take this opportunity to grow as a team. Kind of digest the pain of losing against the Cavs and being eliminated from the playoffs. Understand how every game is important in the regular season. This team has more potential to get farther and have a chance to win the title.”

Maybe it was the injuries or minutes restrictions which bothered Thibodeau, the uncertainty regarding Rose, the sub-par season from Noah, the troubles for Kirk Hinrich, the fall of the bench in the playoffs (Dellavedova outscored the entire Bulls bench until the last seconds), the inconsistent use and play of the young players, the change in character of the team with the addition of offensive oriented players like Gasol, Brooks and Mirotic. In any case, it was a team that played games and the season in spurts, droughts in games, weeks of uninspired play. It wasn’t the same Bulls team of recent years, overachieving if underwhelming in the end.

“I don’t know if there will be changes,” said Gasol. “It’s something management and ownership have to decide. The team, at times, has shown great potential and high quality, but we have to find more consistency. We have to understand and have a better sense of urgency throughout the year. We’re a resilient team, but I feel like there are certain points we were content with having a few good games and having good stretches. To be one of the top teams you have to stay hungry, stay focused, stay disciplined throughout the 82 games.”

Perhaps most surprising Thursday was not only losing in rebounding again (Tristan Thompson with 13 points and 17 rebounds), but being dominated 53-32 on the boards by a team without Love, losing Irving, Smith with more rebounds than any Bulls player but Noah.

“Yes,” Noah said about it being a lost opportunity against a weakened Cavs team that had Smith suspended the first two games. “The reality is there’s no more basketball, no more practices, no more meetings with this group. That’s always hard; it always takes a little time to digest. Really disappointed right now.

I feel like I definitely have to play better than I did this year; I’m disappointed about that. This is definitely a really tough point right now losing with the caliber of players we had and the expectations we had. But I think it’s going to make us stronger and make us work that much harder.”

It was as close a Bulls team has looked to admitting defeat to end a great series that had three straight games come down to the last seconds. But Thursday not only do the Bulls get outrebounded by 21, but they get just 10 free throws, showing little aggression on both sides of the ball. It was the biggest loss in a closeout game in franchise history.

“Not at all,” said Rose. “When I think about that (window closing), I think about the Dallas team that won a couple of years ago; nobody had them winning. I think just coming out here and believing that’s what it’s all about.

“We’ve been trying to figure this out the entire year, our ups and downs,” Rose added. “Trying to give you the best answer as possible, I really don’t know. Look at film, as I always say, and try to fix. Hopefully, when we come back we’ll have a different game plan, a different approach to how we play each game; we’ve got to figure it out.”

bulls-season-ends-with-game-6-loss-to-cavaliers

Bulls season ends with Game 6 loss to Cavaliers

Pau Gasol said he’s going to play Thursday against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinal after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. Taj Gibson wasn’t suspended—or facing any further penalty—after his ejection in the Game 5 loss that gave the Cavs a 3-2 series lead. Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said Derrick Rose’s “nicked up” right shoulder/arm/wrist/hand was workable and not an issue. Aaron Brooks was not getting a fine for his little push in the Gibson incident.

“Right now it’s win or go home,” Gasol said in a cliché go to for elimination games. “There’s nothing left besides tomorrow’s game. Our backs are against the wall. But I like our chances, to be honest with you. I love our team. I like our resiliency. They are in a close out position, but it’s up to us to stand up to the challenge and fight for our lives. We have to win two games to advance.”

It was as positive as it could be after a light Bulls practice Wednesday, Gasol back, though he said likely in limited playing time and depending on how he endured. He said he’d begun running, but had not tried to jump yet. Which didn’t sound so encouraging. The mantra was another sports bromide, just looking toward Game 6. And then worry about a Game 7 in Cleveland.

Though the way this series has gone the worry is LeBron James.

The Bulls may be finding out what so many like the Knicks and Pacers and Cavaliers of that era discovered. You can be good enough to win a championship if not born in the wrong decade. That was Michael’s time. This is LeBron’s time and he’s been spectacular in this series.

There was the game winner in Game 4 amidst a series of amazing performances, including Tuesday’s steamroller 38 points, 12 rebounds, six assists, three steals and three blocks without a turnover. Jimmy Butler guarding James had 29 points and nine rebounds, an amazing game basically no one noticed.

Sometimes someone comes along who is just too good.

Though he’s not exactly unbeatable in a series that has been as evenly contested as any in these playoffs. The teams have the exact same number of field goals after five games. The number of free throws is almost the same and their free throw shooting is .001 apart. The Cavs have scored 12 more points over five games. The Bulls have five more rebounds. The Cavs have two more assists. The Cavs have one more turnover and were called for six more fouls. The Bulls have six more steals while the Cavs have six more blocks. Two games came down to a last shot; Game 5 saw the Bulls with a shot to take the lead with 46 seconds left.

So it’s hardly like trying to defeat a monolith.

The series, in many respects, has been there for the taking for the Bulls with Kevin Love and J.R. Smith out, Smith the first two games, and Kyrie Irving supposedly with a leg injury, though he’s moving pretty well and had 25 points in Game 5.

Still, this is about LeBron, who does virtually everything for the Cavs, far more than any player has been asked to do in these playoffs and, probably, in any playoffs for years.

James leads the Cavs in scoring, rebounding and assists. He is almost exclusively their primary ball handler. He’s averaging 12 more shots per game than any teammate. He’s leading in steals and has been called for more fouls than any teammate. See, they call fouls on him, though he hasn’t agreed with any yet. He’s shooting more free throws than anyone and only Iman Shumpert has attempted more threes, even with James bricking them up at a 12.5 percent rate. He’s the only Cav averaging more than 40 minutes per game, the true indispensible man.

There’s really no stopping James, and Butler has done as well as anyone usually can even with those amazing statistics for James. But you have to try something. James wants to pass and the Cavs’ best game is when they move the ball for three-point shooting.

The Bulls cannot allow that. The Bulls have basically done a good job defending the three-point line as even the Bulls at 36 percent are shooting better than the Cavs’ 34 percent from distance.

The Bulls have to do a better job running Irving off the three-point line. Though J.R. Smith has shot well from three and leads them at 42.9 percent, I wouldn’t worry so much about him as he’ll fall in love with the bad shot too easily. The Cavs’ best games basically have been with Irving to support James, though Irving slumped in the weekend game in the United Center, shooting five for 23.

This Cavs team simply doesn’t have enough to win without greatness from James and very goodness from Irving. Though Thibodeau Wednesday in his routine celebration of opponents had staff running for defibrillators when he declared, “Dellavedova is dangerous.” That’s three words heard about as often as, “Enjoying Chicago’s winter?”