NBA Draft 2020

Bulls.com

I'm pretty excited! So, who do we take? We have a lot to look forward to. New management's first decisions, new coach, 4th pick. The offseason will be an exciting time.

Ball, Avdija, Haliburton or Toppin? Want to vote?

Tough decision but nice place to be in for the Bulls. I'm a Knicks fan and they are snake bitten. I really love Obi, but you have Porter, Carter etc. ...I would definitely seriously consider Halliburton. Just hope he is more than Dunn with an outside shot, although that combination might be an All-Star. Obi would be incredible, also but I think Bulls have a lot of that skill level already. Deni might be the Dave Debusherre / Biil Bradley missing key to the Bulls equation

Sounds like a '70 Knicks fan. It's been a tough half century. I'm looking at Avdija, of course, with the classic American expertise of never having seen him play. I guessed a few months ago with a wink after Arturas was hired that it was now international guys for the Bulls. I'm sure Arturas won't show his cards and we won't know until the draft who's his ace. But without major trades in the picks ahead of the Bulls, it seems like Avdija would be there and could be a nice fit with the Bulls young guys and semi-vet Zach. I'd certainly like to take a look at Coby, Zach. Deni, Lauri and Wendell. That seems like much more than 28-win talent. Though I've said before. Would help to find a Walt Frazier type, though.

Warriors send #2 to Knicks for 8 and Mitchell? If that's your proposal, hmmm, I think Wiseman as a rookie will be better than Robinson will be in year 3. Robinson is a nice defender but hard to keep on the floor because he fouls too much, also not much of an offensive game besides lobs and putbacks. Toppin? I get Boozer vibes. Been there done that for us.

Toppin seems much more active and athletic and more aggressive; after all Boozer was a second round pick. The Warriors centers like JaVale McGee, etc. have been defensive role players. Like Mitchell. Then they get a lottery pick, too. They seem the most likely to try to turn it into two players.

Do you feel that the Knicks would trade a pick and contracts for Lavine considering they are stacking up on young players?

There's been that LaVine speculation to New York or Brooklyn. But the Knicks have so little. Now we know the Knicks have No. 8, which is not nearly as good as No. 4. Something they probably know even in the New York public school system. Thibs had Zach, after all, and traded him. Can't see anyone on the roster other than Barrett I'd be remotely interested in for Zach, who, by the way, is better than Barrett.

The search is on. What are some key things Bulls management should be looking for in their new coach? Atkinson, Unseld Jr, and Udoka seem to have the best odds. I'm hoping they get a more offensive mind as head coach. Could D'Antoni be a name to watch if he can't agree to an extension with Houston? Whose currently available with head coaching experience? Maybe someone like Alvin Gentry, Dave Joerger, and Mark Jackson.. Joerger would be the most appealing to me from that list. I've seen Ty Lue's name pop up as a candidate, but its hard to judge somebody that won with LeBron

Though I hear Lue is going to the Pelicans. That's the job everyone wants with Zion, Ingram and all those picks. Unseld and Udoka are the most popular names for now given they worked with Karnisovas (Unseld) or Eversley (Udoka). Plus Udoka has big Spurs stuff on his resume having played and coached there. It still counts. Maybe until they miss the playoffs twice in a row. Atkinson also is frequently mentioned because he's available and the Nets were viewed as overachievers. Karnisovas has shown he's careful, deliberate and thorough. And the Bulls aren't playing for months. Though there's a camp of sorts in September, I hardly see any urgency to have a coach by then given there's not much players will be doing beyond conditioning and perhaps an occasional scrimmage. There'll be another more serious training camp before the 2020-21 season starts, whenever that may be. Another potential coaching name that might come up and hasn't is Chris Finch. He's known Karnisovas for a long time as a European player and coach and was with him in Houston and Denver, the latter where Finch was Mike Malone's associate coach for offense. He had that role for Alvin Gentry last season in New Orleans. My guess is it's a long list. This does not seem to be a management team that makes hasty decisions.

Whom do you like for HC for the Bulls? For the type of game that's being played now, I feel that Mark Jackson should become our new HC. He helped shelter in this current Warriors team. They've made it to the Playoffs when he was coach there in Golden State. Also too, we should look into Brian Shaw. Run the triangle with this Bulls Team. Or Mike Brown. LBJames 1st Coach?

Mark has been a favorite of a lot of fans, and maybe it would get Pete Myers back with the Bulls since he was close with Mark in Golden State. It's an interesting dichotomy with Mark in Golden State. He featured Curry and Thompson when many doubted it would work and they became a 50-win team. Then Steve Kerr in that A to B to C thing took over and they were a 70-win team with essentially the same personnel and a game with more movement. Still, the Bulls are at A. Whatever the Bulls do, it's apparent especially watching games now that offense, movement and wing play have dominated and that's where the Bulls need improvement.

Fred VanVleet is my favorite player of all time. He is the most intelligent hard nosed player in the nba. He doesn't gloat. He doesn't disrespect anyone. He's getting paid. My guess is the Bulls go after him. He's a winner. In his whole life, he's risen to the occasion. Does what's needed for the greater good of the team. That's a PG. The NBA is positionless at the highest levels. If you think he goes to a team like the Bulls and doesn't immediately run the team and take them to the playoffs, you don't know basketball.

I'll admit VanVleet has surprised me, though apparently a lot of NBA people as well since he wasn't drafted. And college guys, too, since he didn't get any real major college offers. So good for him. He makes about the NBA average salary and having played for a championship Raptors team that remarkably could repeat he's going to be a top free agent. Obviously the Bulls over the cap once Otto Porter opts in aren't involved. I assume he resigns with Toronto as the Bird exception will give most teams their flexibility. But Toronto's payroll could be massive with Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol free agents, also. I have my doubts how much market a six foot combo guard has given VanVleet works so well because the Raptors system of play is so evenly divided. When he started the season fast there was talk he's a $25 million to $30 million annual player. I doubt that. Obviously good for him for a good kid from Rockford. He'll be an intriguing test case in the new NBA economics to come which is going to be a surprise to a lot of players.

I think the bulls have one of the strangest rosters for any Bulls team I remember. No idea if any of these pieces fit together well, who is good or bad, and what they are going to do with it. But whatever the case, thank goodness they made the decision to move on.

The sentiment obviously was for change, a familiar theme in sports, business and politics. Karnisovas has insisted the roster is better than its record, and I tend to agree. And not only because I had the Bulls making the playoffs last season. OK, but I didn't the season before. There are some significant job openings, perhaps mostly at point guard. Though Portland has looked good with two scoring guards taking turns in the backcourt. And the way Miami plays with Adebayo isn't much different than the way in this era the Bulls can use Carter. And there's no way last season was really Markkanen. I do think Karnisovas' vision is accurate and he gets the Bulls more organized moving and more efficient no matter who is coaching.

Did you watch the Clippers vs. Mavs? Joakim only played 1 minute. Do you think Joakim still is the defensive athletic where he could've helped guard Porzingis and prevent him from scoring most of those 20-some points?

We're still rooting for the Clippers for Jo. He's obviously there for emergency with Harrell out during the seeding games and Doc Rivers enamored with Zubac. But things change quickly when things go badly. Rivers never has been afraid to take chances with personnel and I wouldn't be surprised to see Jo out there if only to give Porzingis a different look with his size. Like the late 90s Bulls, maybe it's time for the three-headed monster.

I realize there may be some bias here related to the 76ers wobbly playoff performance and what they might do in the future, but it occurs to me that the Bulls are a natural fit as a trade partner should they decide to build their team around Embiid and trade Simmons, especially with Marc Eversley's connections to that organization. Playing around with the trade machine I'm having a hard time seeing a loser in a deal built around Lavine (scorer on a good contract), Thad Young (back-up big + return to PHI) and Otto Porter (3+D and in the last year of his Contract if he opts in) + 2020 1st rd pick for Simmons (Bulls get their *star*) and Horford (Bulls swallow the overpay for Horford for the next 4 yrs). Thoughts on the 76ers current roster and whether this might be something the new FO might be pursuing?

They have said they are committed to making the team better, and Simmons certainly would. I know the Bulls never could stop him. I'm sure we'll see plenty of break up Embiid/Simmons stuff once the 76ers are out of the playoffs, but it hardly seems to me two All-Stars (even if Al is a few years removed) for two expiring contract role players and Zach wouldn't exactly thrill a tough fan base. If the 76ers were to move Simmons, they'd want shooting around Embiid. Certainly Embiid would since he told Simmons to shoot more. My guess is they keep them together for another season perhaps with a different coach. There's no hurry to get rid of stars. Zach is good and underappreciated, but probably plays a little too much like Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris for the 76ers to jump on something like that. Better get back to that trade machine.

Bulls get: Simmons, whatever bad contract (Horford)

Sixers get: Lavine, Lauri, pick, and prob Otto's expiring to balance out the money Lauri and Lavine would prob fit with Embiid quite well. Simmons is great. What do you think? Bring back trading Sam. He's a 23-year old two-time all star. you play him like Giannis and surround him with shooters.

Now the 76ers would have to think about that. Zach and Lauri for shooting and the No. 4 pick? That is a lot to give up. It's sort of the Jimmy deal in reverse. Can Simmons be your Giannis? The NBA is about stars, and Arturas has acknowledged you're as good as your star, as the Nuggets are with Jokic. Take a chance? Would the Bulls be better? And who are the shooters after getting rid of the two best in LaVine and Markkanen? Simmons, Coby, Otto/Hutchison, Carter and Gafford? I have the draft getting the Bulls Avdija and I like him with what the Bulls have now. Though I do see a lot of trade talk/possibilities/speculation for this draft and Ask Sam. Golden State is one, of course. But say the Cavs want local guy Toppin and he's available to the Bulls. Flip a point guard and an exchange of picks? The Knicks likely want to move up for a point guard. They have a few, like Elfrid Payton, and they're not doing much with Kevin Knox. And maybe Arturas likes someone at eight. He's been creative and daring with the group in Denver with second round picks, chances on players like Michael Porter Jr. and often trading draft picks. And then what if the Bulls grab someone like Toppin? Then they have power forwards who can be attractive in trade. This, after all, may be a more interesting fall than with the games. Which the commissioner indicated in an ESPN interview before the lottery may not occur again until into 2021.

Kenny Atkinson's name is the one for Bulls coach from the Vegas guys. They get a lot right. Looking back at the articles published when Atkinson was fired, a lot of people were "shocked". You hear more about Kyrie, but I suspect KD was in on it too. I've also read that Atkinson didn't like them any more than they liked him. Interesting that Atkinson is characterized both as 'tough' and 'player friendly'. To me, that translates to a guy who can drive them hard but still keep Their trust &amp; respect... which describes most of the coaches we admire, like Phil, Pop, and both Reds.

He seems to be one of the leaders in the proverbial clubhouse, though I suspect that is more speculation than reality since it's been obvious that Karnisovas is crafty, cautious, calculating and canny. I think in the end he chooses someone he knows well. After all, that's really what it is all about when a new management takes over. And understandable. They want their own people. As is appropriate. So someone he (or Eversley) knows well and is comfortable to work with. Karnisovas has a long history with multiple organizations and countries, so some on the list could be unfamiliar. One of the bigger debates/questions to me is whether the Bulls go with training wheels again and someone who never has been an NBA coach or experience. NBA head coaching inexperienced Tim Floyd and Jim Boylen didn't work; Tom Thibodeau did. Experience doesn't guarantee success, either, because it means that guy was fired. Probably more than once. Maybe Arturas needs one of those cool slogans like, Yes We Can or Four More Years. Though perhaps with Change he can say Happy Days are Here Again.

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Ask Sam Mailbag: Who should the Bulls take at #4, Head Coach candidates, and NBA Playoffs

Sam Smith

Sam Smith breaks down what moving up to the fourth pick means for the Bulls.

You can just hear the United Center announcer now. Frommmmmmm Maccabi Tel Aviv, forwardddddd….Deni Avdija.

Who just might be the Bulls 2020 draft selection now that the Bulls Thursday in the NBA draft lottery moved up to No. 4 for October's NBA draft.

"How happy we are to move up, to break recent tradition," Bulls Executive Vice-president of Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas said on a post drawing media call. "We know that moving up from seven (the last three drafts) to four is a huge deal for our organization and for the city of Chicago and the fans of the Chicago Bulls. So we're extremely happy."

Karnisovas represented the Bulls on the video call set up by ESPN and the NBA. Karnisovas was at the Advocate center wearing a black Bulls golf shirt with red Bulls logo. As ESPN counted down, he was looking inscrutable as the announcer intoned that the Bulls and Hornets had moved up when the Knicks came up with No. 8, a drop of two places. The Bulls would move up three after dropping three last year, from four to seven. Karnisovas was shown with a shy smile when the Bulls were revealed fourth.

"A bunch of things happen in the draft," noted Karnisovas, who was typically circumspect about his intentions. "You're going to move up. You're going to move down. Who knows? There's going to be a lot of conversations with other teams. It's an exciting time. People are going to have different evaluations of each player and opinion is going to vary (because of inactions since March). I think there are opportunities there and we're going to take advantage of them. Some teams are going to look at that player at the four. Some teams are going to look at him at 18.

"There's a lot of opportunity in that environment," Karnisovas added. "I was obviously hoping for top three. But it was great, great news. Hopefully at four we're going to get a very good player."

It's not considered a potential superstar heavy draft at the top like last year with Zion Williamson. And especially with the Golden State Warriors at No. 2 and going to get back in title contention, there could be trades. The Knicks, for instance, are said to be anxious to draft a point guard. But they fell from sixth to eighth when both the Bulls and Charlotte Hornets, the big lottery winners, moved ahead. Charlotte picks third. Could the Knicks put together a package and the Warriors still would have a lottery pick?

But without a trade it also makes sense for Golden State to add a player most rank as the No. 1 or No. 2 prospect in athletic seven footer James Wiseman. The Minnesota Timberwolves with center Karl-Anthony Towns figure to be attracted to the other most highly regarded prospect, Georgia shooting guard Anthony Edwards.

That sort of sequence—or pretty much any other—would leave the Bulls able to fill crucial needs almost no matter how the first three selections go. Though Karnisovas has been coy about the Bulls needs, the biggest gaps seem to be at point guard and small forward. Perhaps a big center if Wiseman were available.

Certainly Charlotte could select Avdija, a versatile small forward who already is playing professional basketball. Which would leave the Bulls with a further interesting dilemma since Dayton's athletic scoring forward Obi Toppin is regarded as the most can't miss prospect in this draft.

The Bulls have depth at power forward with Lauri Markkanen and perhaps Wendell Carter Jr., who in this NBA still projects as a possible center. But Karnisovas has said he doesn't worry about position and has duplicated positions in the draft if the player is the most talented.

There also would be one or two highly rated point guards available, the most notable being LaMelo Ball. The younger brother of the Pelicans' Lonzo is the more talented in the family, a brassy lead guard with an often spectacular style and polarizing family name. He's likely to be the most notable player coming into the draft and an attraction with his passing. Iowa State point guard Tyrese Haliburton isn't considered as eye catching. He's steadier and more versatile with an ability to play off the ball as well. Either could be the facilitating point guard the Bulls miss.

But Avdija would be an ideal fit, a fluid, athletic and versatile point forward who could draw comparisons to Toni Kukoc and Scottie Pippen, if not quite with their resumes. Israel restarted playing and Avdija has averaging 17.3 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists while shooting 41 percent on threes, the latter often considered a flaw. He's able to deliver the ball off the dribble and play a full court transition game that would fit with Zach LaVine and Coby White. The prospects are tantalizing.

Which is why hitting the lottery for the first time since the 2008 draft and Derrick Rose was crucial for the Bulls. They were settled into the seventh spot again with the possibility of falling one or two spots if teams jumped, like the Lakers, Pelicans and Grizzlies did last year.

Though Karnisovas has emphasized there's a wide variety of opinion about this draft and indicated there is value to be found throughout, the consensus about the most talented players has been through the sixth or seventh selections. Moving up to No. 4 assures the Bulls of being able to select among the most elite players in this draft.

Karnisovas also noted the expected variations of analysis in this draft because of the coronavirus. Plus when he was a top executive with the Denver Nuggets, the team often traded down in the draft. They did so to positive results when they traded the No. 11 pick in the 2014 draft for Nos. 16 and 19. Doug McDermott didn't work out for the Bulls that year while the Nuggets were pleased with Gary Harris and Jusuf Nurkic. But the Nuggets also traded down with Utah, trading the Jazz in 2017 the rights to Donovan Mitchell for Trey Lyles and the No 24 pick, which they used for Tyler Lydon.

This will be the first time Karnisovas is in charge of an organization with the responsibility of making the final draft decision. Moving up in the draft for the No. 4 selection is a huge preliminary victory. The October draft will help determine whether it will eventually translate into more wins for the Bulls.

"I think you address by selecting the best player available, especially at four," said Karnisovas. "I don't think you address needs at the four. You get the best talent. That's what we're going to be looking for with the highest upside player. The way I approach the draft is there's a ton of opportunities. You're going to take 100 calls and possibly nothing is going to happen and you're going to stay at four and (second round) 44. It's an exciting time to make your organization better that night. It will probably be a difference of opinion from team to team, which creates opportunities. So that's the way I'm looking at it.

"On Oct. 16," said Karnisovas, "you'll see who it's going to be. We're going to select a player that's going to help us next year and in the future for sure."

1. Minnesota Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards, Georgia SG

They've got center Karl-Anthony Towns and traded for his buddy, point guard D'Angelo Russell. Edwards is the big, athletic shooting guard for that Big Three. Though he's somewhat erratic and reminds me a bit of Isaiah Rider. Bad memories in Minnesota with JR. He's considered by many the top talent in this draft.

2. Golden State Warriors, James Wiseman, Memphis C

With Steph Curry and Klay Thompson returning from injury, they're not the typical lottery team. So they'll also be looking at trades to make an immediate rerun. If they keep the pick, Wiseman makes the most sense as a big time athlete to hand off the baton to compete into the next decade.

3. Charlotte Hornets, Obi Toppin, Dayton, PF

There'll be talk about LaMelo Ball and the attention he brings in a market with modest interest. Perhaps too much risk/reward. They have a bunch of guards and need scoring. Toppin is the safest pick, a sure athletic scorer in a scoring league.

4. Bulls, Deni Avdija, Maccabi Tel Aviv, SF

Ball would be appealing for attention and excitement. And need as the Bulls don't have a true facilitating point guard. But you still could make a case of seeing what Coby White and Zach LaVine could do together. The wing position is virtually empty and with his international experience he's already a pro who also can be a secondary ball handler. Luka-light? That wouldn't be too bad.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers, LaMelo Ball, Ball-land, PG

What, another point guard! Yes, it was Collin Sexton, who is sort of a point guard, and last year Darius Garland. Sure it's a guard/wing league. But another? Ball's too talented to pass. You can always trade a point guard. Perhaps the Bulls would be interested as they were enamored of Garland last year. Plus in post-LeBron/Kyrie times you need an attraction.

He's a physical and powerful inside force to support the addition of Clint Capela and the presence of John Collins to add that toughness to all the skilled shooters and Trae Young.

7. Detroit Pistons, Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State, PG

Derrick Rose has some years left, but they'll need a successor. Plus he's excellent at playing off the ball and can work into an eventual starting spot as a reliable leader.

8. New York Knicks, Isaac Okoro, Auburn, F

He'll begin the Thibs effect as probably the best wing defender in this draft. They were supposedly hoping for a point guard but don't seem to have anything to trade up and the remaining points may be too big a risk. You hire Thibs, you have to play his way.

9. Washington Wizards, Killian Hayes, France, PG

John Wall is set to return and supposedly looking good. But those were a lot of surgeries and after losing Tomas Satoransky to the Bulls there really was no replacement. So they'll eventually need one, if not sooner.

10. Phoenix Suns, Devin Vassell, Florida State, F

You never can have too much shooting in this NBA. The Suns have the league's longest winning streak going with those bubbleicious eight straight. They have Mikal Bridges, one of those 3-D guys like Vassell. Devin Booker always can use more spacing and shooting around him.

11. San Antonio Spurs, Patrick Williams, Florida State F

He's another of those kinds of players who can surprise and be one of the best in this draft with his potential two-way skills and perhaps another steal for the Spurs

12. Sacramento Kings, Cole Anthony, North Carolina PG

It's been a tough year for the Kings, bad in the bubble, the GM fired and having to look at the what if of Luka all the time. Anthony was the big prospect last year and had a knee injury. Worth a look for the upside.

13. New Orleans Pelicans, Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt, SG

Could be the best shooter in the draft who had an even shorter season than most in college with a foot injury. Lots of young guys and some missing shooting if they don't keep JJ Redick beyond next season.

14. Boston Celtics, Saddiq Bey, Villanova, F

This was Memphis' pick from a trade and the Celtics have two other firsts. So who knows what they'll do as they don't figure to use all three. Bey's an excellent shooter and though they need size their wing formula seems to work well. He's more insurance as Hayward has had injury issues.

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Sam Smith's Mock Draft after Bulls land No. 4 Pick

childukich

If any teams should be angry about the draft lottery, it's the Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis/Vancouver Grizzlies.

Imagine how different the history of the NBA would be if the Timberwolves, especially, were not perennial victims of an unequal lottery draw.

Consider in 1992 when the Timberwolves had the worst record in the NBA. By a lot, by the way.

It was an historic NBA draft with perhaps one of the 10 best ever NBA players, Shaquille O'Neal at No. 1 and Hall of Famer Alonzo Mourning at No. 2. Imagine how either would have changed one of the most inefficient franchises since its inception, especially O'Neal. And then perhaps a decade later missing out on Kyrie Irving.

Or how about that franchise agreement the NBA hung on the Grizzlies? Perhaps the Ja Morant draft last year finally was payback. The Grizzlies, who started in Vancouver, agreed in their entry not to have the first draft pick for four years. It kept them from having a chance to draft Tim Duncan in 1997. And probably having remained in Canada. The year before it kept them from drafting Allen Iverson. How long would Iverson/Duncan lasted as a dynasty? And you'd probably never have heard of Gregg Popovich.

It's the somewhat arbitrary nature of not only the draft but team success.

No matter a team's culture, veteran experience and front office savvy, draft lottery success probably more often builds champions. Without the Grizzlies, the Celtics were in line for No. 1 in 1997. Duncan became Chauncey Billups and coach Rick Pitino's NBA career ended quickly.

How about if Charlotte in 2012 with the poorest record ended up with the No. 1 pick and Anthony Davis? Instead of No. 2. Michael Jordan would be a much smarter executive. And in 1985 didn't the Pacers with the poorest record deserve Patrick Ewing more than the Knicks? After all, it was the Pacers draft choice the Trailblazers used in 1984 for Sam Bowie one pick ahead of Jordan. So, yes, it also helps to take the right guy when you have a chance.

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Sam Smith: The unlucky side of the NBA Draft Lottery

Sam Smith breaks down how picks have played out for teams that jumped up the draft board.

It's fortunate to be fortunate on Lottery Day in the NBA. But it doesn't guarantee your fortune.

No team that has defied the greatest lottery odds has used that luck to win an NBA championship.

The Orlando Magic may have been closest and probably remain one of the best NBA teams never to win an NBA title.

The Magic started in 1989 and became the story of the lottery after the first one in 1985 when the Knicks moved up from No. 3 to grab college superstar Patrick Ewing with the top pick and the NBA was forever erroneously accused of manipulating the lottery to favor the Knicks. All non playoff teams had equal chances for the No. 1 pick then. The Knicks went on to finish last in Ewing's rookie season and never win a title. The Knicks in the woeful 1986 lottery fell from first to fifth. Four of the top seven picks in that draft fell victim to drug problems.

The following season the rules were changed to make the lottery for the top three picks and then by record. In 1990, it was modified again to a weighted system to give greater odds to the team with the worst record.

There were huge variances to start with Seattle jumping eight spots for Gary Payton in 1990 and Charlotte six spots for Alonzo Mourning in 1992. In that draft, the Magic moved up from No. 2 to get Shaquille O'Neal at No. 1. The following year the Magic moved up from 11th to No. 1 for Chris Webber. Orlando traded that pick to the Warriors for the No. 3 selection for Penny Hardaway and three future No. 1s, in effect, four first rounders for Webber. It enabled the Magic to build what seemed to be a dynasty with O'Neal and Hardaway, the latter then a talent rival to Kobe Bryant, and high previous draft picks like Nick Anderson and Dennis Scott. But the Magic was thwarted by the Rockets in the 1995 Finals, Michael Jordan's return and community hostility toward O'Neal's contract requests that led to his leaving for the Lakers in free agency in 1996.

The Bulls looked on the road to that title with Rose before his serious knee injury in the 2012 playoffs and now we'll see whether Williamson or Morant can lead a revival of their franchises. Luck can carry you only so far.

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Sam Smith: The luck of the Lottery

Sam Smith takes a look back at the top Draft Picks in the past

In this political convention season, perhaps it’s appropriate for the Bulls
  facing the 2020 NBA draft to paraphrase James Carville’s pithy advice to Bill Clinton in the 1992 presidential
  campaign: “It’s the scouting, stupid.”

The Bulls hope Thursday in the NBA Draft Lottery, 7:30 p.m. ESPN, to draw a
  lucky combination and at least get into the top four from their current No. 7 position. They have a 7.5 percent chance
  to get the No. 1 overall pick.

And it’s certainly better to have a higher draft pick.

But it doesn’t mean you can’t get a star player. And especially in this draft
  with so much uncertainty because players have not been able to work out for teams and the NCAA tournament was
  cancelled because of the coronavirus.

NBA history, especially recently, is filled with franchise star players who
  weren’t even lottery picks, like Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Pascal Siakam. Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash
  weren’t top 10 picks in 1996, the Spurs built their post David Robinson years with Tim Duncan and future international
  picks late in the first and in the second round. And Bulls Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations Arturas
  Karnisovas was part of the Denver braintrust that built the current contending Nuggets with second round pick Nikola
  Jokic.

So there’s value to be found. It’s up to the team to unearth.

While many top picks are obvious, like LeBron James in 2003, Duncan in 1997 and
  Shaquille O’Neal in 1992, having the No. 1 pick doesn’t guarantee success.

Kings general manager Vlade Divac probably just lost his job because he had No.
  2 while the No. 3 pick in that draft was Luka Doncic, who is becoming a top NBA star. The consensus in 2007 was to
  select Greg Oden No 1. Kevin Durant at No. 2 became one of the great stars in league history as Oden had a short
  career with injuries.

Zion Williamson was everyone’s favorite last year. But many are already saying
  with Williamson’s injuries and body type that Ja Morant at No. 2 will be the better player in the long run. The
  decisions become even more complex because players now come into the NBA so young. And this year because many players
  didn’t even have one full college season or a post season tournament. Some of the top prospects, like James Wiseman
  and LaMelo Ball, barely played at all or overseas.

So consider the gems that perhaps were a combination of bad lottery luck and
  good scouting.

Scottie Pippen, of course, whom the Bulls long chased and only managed to get
  on draft night in a trade with the Seattle Supersonics for the Bulls No. 8 pick. Plus the Bulls got a little lucky
  when the Clippers selected Reggie Williams No. 4. The Supersonics wanted Williams. When he wasn’t available, only then
  they agreed to the swap of draft picks. Sacramento at No. 6 in that draft also was seeking Pippen. They selected Kenny
  Smith. Future All-Star point guard Kevin Johnson was seventh. Who would the Bulls have taken if they stayed at No. 8?
  Olden Polynice as Seattle did?

Consider some recent drafts, and perhaps it’s a clue to what works in the NBA
  and what scouts tend to ignore.

Some of the best recent players from the lottery were selections out of the top
  seven, like C.J. McCollum, No. 10 in 2013, Klay Thompson No. 11 in 2011, Devin Booker No. 13 in 2015 and Donovan
  Mitchell No. 13 in 2017. Talk about your lucky 13. You can add No. 13 Zach LaVine to that list from 2014. All are
  shooting guard/wing player types who can also make plays, which has been the emphasis in the constantly downsizing
  NBA.

Look at some of the other best players leading teams these days, like Doncic
  with the Mavericks, Jayson Tatum with the Celtics, Jimmy Butler, James Harden and until his injuries Victor Oladipo.

Scouts often still hold onto the belief of the dominant big man. And if you can
  find Tim Duncan or Shaquille O’Neal, take him. But there are few like them. With examination and information, it
  appears more often these days a clever team can identify a talented player who doesn’t appear to have exceptional
  skills or size and develop a team leader. Perhaps LaVine can take that final step under new management. Or that new
  management can discover even outside the top four picks, if it comes to that, the kind of talented player to join the
  underachieving talent the Bulls may just have. Those players are there to be uncovered. Perhaps one just needs to look
  more carefully.

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Sam Smith: Star players can be found all over the draft

Sam Smith revisits the two previous times the Bulls won the NBA Draft Lottery, landing Elton Brand and Derrick Rose, and recaps the Bulls' recent lottery results.

It happens for the Bulls about once a decade.

Is this the year the Bulls get the lottery luck again and move into the No. 1 position in Thursday's NBA Draft Lottery?

It happened in 1999 with Elton Brand and in 2008 with Derrick Rose. One for two isn't bad. At least in baseball.

In 1999, the Bulls had the third position and about a 16 percent chance of getting the first draft pick. The Bulls did get the top pick, unfortunately, in a draft with no so called franchise players.

The Bulls made the correct selection, if not the best followup.

The top of that draft was considered a four-player selection among Brand, Steve Francis, Baron Davis and Lamar Odom. It proved to be a generally weak draft with no long term All-Stars. Perhaps the best player was future prospect Manu Ginobili, selected 57th—next to last—by the Spurs.

Brand was the most conservative choice, a very good player with a limited ceiling. Francis initially looked like the best player with multiple All-Star starting selections. But his career was short after he refused to go to Vancouver, which drafted him. Davis previously had knee surgery and Odom was rumored to have drug issues, which occurred later in his career.

Brand did make two All-Star teams and averaged 25 points in a playoff series. But that was with the Clippers, who traded for him for the rights to the No. 2 draft pick in 2001. The Bulls used that pick for Tyson Chandler. The Bulls general manager accurately didn't believe Brand was good enough to lead a team to a title. So he gambled that a duo of seven footers in Chandler and Eddy Curry could. It went badly for the Bulls as both Curry and Chandler failed and Krause was replaced by John Paxson. Brand averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds in both his Bulls seasons. Brand had a strong run with the Clippers averaging more than 20 points over six seasons before a knee injury.

Two Chicago No.1 overall selections: Elton Brand and Derrick Rose.

The 2008 draft became the closest the Bulls were to a championship since the Michael Jordan era.

The Bulls tied for the third biggest all-time lottery leap, going from ninth to first with 1.7 percent odds in their first season of missing the playoffs in four years. The prize was a franchise star from Chicago, Derrick Rose, who went on to become the youngest MVP in league history.

The Bulls were able to build a team around Rose without another superstar player and led the league in wins in consecutive seasons and seemed on pace to win a title. But Rose suffered a serious ACL knee injury in the 2012 playoffs and never regained that elite form. He was traded following the 2015-16 season after the Bulls averaged 47 wins in his eight seasons with a five-year run of about 52 wins.

It was back into the lottery after the Rose trade and none or bad luck since.

The Bulls had the last pick in 2014, which became the only lottery since the weighted system in 1990 when no team changed position. The Bulls stayed at No. 14 and drafted Denzel Valentine. There was one All-Star taken after that pick, Toronto with Pascal Siakam at No 27. Caris LeVert was No 20 and Malcolm Brogdon was No. 36 in a relatively weak draft.

The Bulls picked well in the 2018 draft the next time they were in the lottery with Wendell Carter Jr. at No. 7. He has been injured, but shows considerable room for growth. But there was a big "could have been" that could have put the Bulls in position to select Luka Doncic. Would they have? We'll never know.

The Bulls and Sacramento Kings tied with a 27-55 record. The Bulls won the tiebreaker for the extra lottery ball chance to move to sixth. Sacramento's sequence of balls at No. 7, the loser of the tie breaker, moved up to No. 2 in the draft. The Kings selected Duke's Marvin Bagley after the Suns took consensus No. 1 choice Deandre Ayton. Kings general manager Vlade Divac, like Krause after the Chandler/Curry draft, lost his job recently. Atlanta with the No. 3 pick traded down to Dallas for No. 5 and a future No. 1 pick. Atlanta's selection, Trae Young, has become an All-Star. Doncic is already an MVP contender. The Bulls were that close to the No. 2 pick.

No. 7 overall selection in the 2019 Draft: Coby White.

Last year, the Bulls didn't get lucky again, though it didn't prove fatal. Coby White at No. 7 appears to be a potential All-Star selection. But the Bulls had bad lottery luck, falling three spots to No. 7 in the lottery drawing with two potential franchise players available at the top of the draft.

It was the most unexpected lottery drawing with three teams moving up at least six spots. New Orleans and Memphis each moved six places to get the No. 1 and 2 picks and future stars Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. The Lakers moved seven spots to No. 4, the pick going to Atlanta through the Pelicans from the Anthony Davis trade. The Hawks selected De'Andre Hunter.

NBA success generally is predicated on stars to build around, like the Bulls had with Rose in the 2008 draft and the Mavericks have now with Doncic from 2018. There doesn't appear to be that level of talented player in this draft. But history generally shows a team has a better chance at a special player in the top four than where the Bulls have been drafting recently at No. 7. And where they are slotted for now going into Thursday's drawing.

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A Brief History of the Chicago Bulls in the Draft Lottery

Sam Smith joined Arturas Karnisovas on the phone where they discussed this Thursday's Draft Lottery, Draft philosophy, and more.

Bulls Executive Vice President - Basketball Operations Arturas Karnisovas has made several significant decisions since being hired by the Bulls in April. General Manager Gar Forman was released and replaced by 76ers executive Marc Eversley. Head Athletic Trainer Jeff Tanaka's contract was not picked up and Friday Head Coach Jim Boylen was dismissed. And now comes the hard part.

Perhaps the fun part if Karnisovas proves to be the talisman for the Bulls.

Karnisovas will represent the Bulls Thursday in the NBA's annual Draft Lottery, which will be conducted at the NBA offices in Secaucus, New Jersey at 7:30 p.m. central time on ESPN. The drawing was in Chicago the last year two years. Participants, with Karnisovas representing the Bulls, will appear from their remote locations because of the coronavirus precautions.

The personnel considerations then accelerate since the Bulls will know at what number they are drafting. They can begin to get more clarity regarding potential trades and roster moves and begin to refine the vision for this Bulls team in the 2020-21 season. Karnisovas said he will join other team executives in Orlando later this month, though he has not been to the "bubble" yet. The NBA recently changed course and is allowing executives from the eight excluded teams into the "bubble" for scouting and discussions. The NBA also announced late Tuesday following this interview that the eight teams eliminated from Orlando can gather their players on a voluntary basis for team activities similar to a training camp starting next month. The Draft will be Oct. 16.

Karnisovas Tuesday answered questions from Bulls.com about the Draft and his personnel emphasis as he assumes organizational responsibility.

Bulls.com: Why are you representing the Bulls in Thursday's virtual Lottery?

Karnisovas: How come? Hmmm. Probably not because I have the best luck.

Karnisovas: I'm not a gambler. But just from the new look of the front office, with the changes happening now with the Chicago Bulls, I thought I would represent our organization.

Bulls.com: Media tradition requires me to ask you if you are bringing or holding a good luck charm as we saw in the past with Bulls representatives who got No. 1 picks like Jerry Krause and Steve Schanwald.

Karnisovas: I do not have one. I don't even know what kind of poker face I am going to bring to the virtual Lottery. Maybe a very serious Eastern European look. I'm not going to show too much emotion, but I don't know how I am going to handle it if we have good luck by maybe moving up. I'm hoping.

Karnisovas: We're going be in Chicago, in the Advocate Center. We're setting up a kit that was sent by ESPN. That will be set up there.

Bulls.com: How has this Draft preparation been different without personal workouts?

Karniovas: It's unusual, to say the least. We have done Zoom calls with prospects. We did a lot of video work and watched games. We had Zoom calls with the staff and conversations about the prospects. Over the years, I have been a proponent of, at the Combine, eliminating the workouts and just doing your job during the year and collecting information and checking backgrounds. The physicals that are done at the Combine are a big part of it with important information for the decisions. It's been OK; obviously unprecedented times. I don't think we will see those players in live action leading to the Draft. We've done a lot of work on videos and background and interviews that we will be able to make a decision.

Bulls.com: How many interviews have you done?

Karnisovas: I don't know the exact number, but we've done a lot.

Bulls.com: What have you gained from those conversations and how much does that influence your decision making?

Karnisovas: You get to know them. Listen to their point of view on things. Ask questions about their careers. It's just a small part of the process. The video evaluation and live evaluation is huge as well and then the background.

Bulls.com: Do you have any sense of how your draft process is different from the Bulls' in previous years?

Karnisovas: We added people to our organization who worked in various environments. We're going to come up with the best practices. I'm always looking for ways to improve. My biggest thing is how do you minimize the noise. Whether external from media and numerous mock drafts and how does that sway you one way or another. I am trying to eliminate that noise and have our internal process that we can come up with our own Draft board. There's a lot of experience in that Draft room. We're going to be able to make that decision on the player we are taking.

Bulls.com: Will you be the final decision maker?

Karnisovas: Yes, yes. I'll definitely take the input and there will be group discussions, probably smaller groups and then it's going to come down to me.

Karnisovas: Draft priority? Probably adding talent. It's a talent driven league. Talent wins championships. So we're going to be focused on adding talent. It's going to be up to the coaches to maximize it. Just to get high upside guys on our team. Looking at our roster I love what I see. The players we have now, a young core with vets like Thad and Otto. I think we can build on that. This group definitely can do better than what they've showed the last couple of years.

Bulls.com: Considering your experience as a top executive with the Denver Nuggets, what do you primarily look for in the Draft?

Karnisovas: It depends on where you pick, right? Again, always in every situation we chased talent. The huge discussions around the league are the best available versus the need. But I think where we are going to be picking it is going to be the most talented guy available. And not to be too general, I'm looking for value. Even when we get into the second round, you can find valuable assets that most teams under appreciated. You look for opportunities. Would that be moving up? Moving down? There's always opportunities. It's obviously going to be a busy time to talk on the phone with numerous teams. We'll obviously look at opportunities to make our team better.

Bulls.com: The Nuggets when you were there had a lot of success with international players. Plus you have the international background. Is that somewhere we should look?

Karnisovas: It's probably a natural thing for us to get a better feel with what's going on internationally, connections and the international community we know. But at the end of the day you are looking for the best player available. Would that be international? Would that be American? The way we approached the Draft in the past wherever I have been has been just that.

Bulls.com: What is the Bulls' greatest need?

Karnisovas: Well, besides winning games? The consistency. I think right now we have a priority to find a head coach who will lead this group. We still don't have a schedule for 2020-21. There's a lot of uncertainty. We'll take our time selecting a coach and go from there. The needs are obviously confidence for this group that they can do it. Developing our own players. Some of the players took a step back last year, which we are trying to address. When Marc and I came in, we came in with the No. 1 priority of player care and player development. So we're going to address that.

Bulls.com: The seeding games in the bubble and playoffs just starting are a small sample. But it seems the league emphasis now is very much offensive. Is that the direction to head?

Karnisovas: Every team is trying to find their own style. Some teams play small ball. Some teams play more traditional. Every team relies on their stars and on talent. In terms of do they pay more attention to offense, they pay attention to both. But for us specifically, we have to address offense and how do you maximize your players offensively. They showed a lot of improvement defensively last year. I think offense is the one we are going to employ this year as well.

Bulls.com: Despite the Bulls' poor record last season, there seems to be the most depth at shooting guard and power forward. If you were to advance into the top four given this Draft's uncertainty, would you look for position to address a need?

Karnisovas: No, I think at that spot you pick the best available. The roster balance is going to all sort out. From experience, even in the past when we (in Denver) selected Nikola (Jokic) or selected Nurk (Jusuf Nurkic) there were six or seven bigs on our roster. The roster balance you can sort that out. You go after talent in that position.

Bulls.com: After arriving here, you said in a media call you believed this Draft is better than advertised despite no supposed franchise player. What have you seen to suggest that?

Karnisovas: Again, it's opinion. The way I am looking at the Draft is there is good balance across the Draft, good talent you can find. I think it's stronger than what a lot of people indicate. I'm pretty confident you can find value in the second round, in the first round. I think across it's a good balance of talent this year.

Bulls.com: We know the Bulls are slotted seventh now in the first round. What is the second round status and your philosophy with using second round picks?

Karnisovas: They just broke the ties. We have 44. We had 47. There's still a long way to go, but I am excited to have that pick as well. Washington is getting our second and we are getting Memphis'.

Bulls.com: If you look at the projected top 10 by various mock drafts and speculation, do you see All-Stars?

Karnisovas: Do I have a sense? No. Do I project? Yes. There are a bunch of guys, especially when a lot of those guys are very young. The difference I think with this Draft is there's going to be a huge variation of opinions just because of the unprecedented times and the last four or five months there's not a lot of movement. You can't watch workouts, so I think the opinions are going to be really different of one team and the next team. There's going to be a huge variation with mock drafts and whoever thinks where somebody is going to go. So I think there's going to be a lot of surprises.

Bulls.com: This Bulls roster as you noted has a lot of youth. Does that suggest trading a pick, moving down in the Draft?

Karnisovas: Again, it depends what opportunity is going to present itself. However, I always like to have a balance of the roster with rookie scale contracts, especially now with the expectations that the salary cap is going to go down. I think it's important to add a young player who can bring value not only with talent but also with the rookie scale contract.

Bulls.com: There are differences, but the consensus in these mock drafts has been Wiseman, Edwards, Ball and Toppin in the top five. Do you see it that way?

Karnisovas: I cannot talk about specific players. Like I said, the consensus is going to be so different from one team to another. The opinions of one team, what the top five looks like is going to be different from the other teams. The farther you are going to go the more the variations are going to grow because of the way we have been isolating so long and we haven't seen those players.

Bulls. com: Would you like to say who you'd select if you get the No. 1 pick?

Karnisovas: I would like to have the No. 1 pick. But the odds are so long. I would like to have better odds, actually. What are our odds, 7.5 percent to get a first? To get a second 7.8, 8.1 to get a third, 8.5 to get a fourth (32 percent top four). Those odds are pretty slim, but I still believe on Thursday maybe magic can happen.

Bulls.com: There are contract/free agency decisions to make on players like Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine. When it is that likely?

Karnisovas: It also depends on who you are going to select in the Draft. Those decisions can be made leading to the Draft (in October). The free agents are going to be two days right after the Draft (6 p.m. October 18). I think we'll have a better feel by then.

Bulls.com: With the salary cap situation and Bulls payroll, are there free agent possibilities?

Karnisovas: Again, we are going to be driven by what is going to happen during the Draft. Are we making a trade? Are we selecting a certain player? It depends on the roster balance at that point. We're going to look at what are the needs of the team and we'll address it in free agency. We are going to have a mid-level exception and a biannual.

Bulls.com: Last thing, mercifully. How much of a setback has it been for the Bulls not being able to compete and team bond in Orlando, especially with all the teams you have to beat getting that experience. Your players may not have competition until next year. Will it have an effect?

Karnisovas: It's a disadvantage. We're doing the best we can right now with having players work out individually at the facility and they are working out on their own. It is a disadvantage for us. We have to be creative in the offseason. From talking to players, they are looking forward. They want to get back on the court, they are hungry and they are excited about next season. It's kind of strange because there is no schedule; there's so much unknown and we have to wait.

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Q&A with Arturas Karnisovas going into the Draft Lottery

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Draft Lottery Mixtape

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