Where LeBron, Wade and the free agents are going...
The heat is on and there are an awful lot of team executives sweating right now, reports Sam Smith. So what's going to happen and who's going where? Smith writes the Bulls do have a pretty good shot to hit the jackpot, though he doesn't see it in the end.
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As the Great One said, "And away we go."
No, not LeBron, the real Great One, Jackie Gleason. Of course, that may be bad karma here as he went to Miami.
No, I don't believe LeBron is going to Miami to form some superhero trio of Flash, Batman and Robin, also known as Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh, if only because Wade doesn't want to be elbowed aside, Bosh doesn't want to be a third wheel doing the inside dirty work and LeBron doesn't want to be known as a guy who needed Dwyane Wade to get him a championship. Plus, who really wants to play for Pat Riley? He'll put on a great pitch, as he is probably the league's most impressive salesman/motivator. But who needs those Kremlin rules and three-hour practices?
I think the key to all this may be Chris Bosh.
He seems like the mystery figure to me. Everyone seems to assume/hear/believe/know he's going as some sort of tag along for LeBron or Wade. He could, but I don't believe he views himself that way. I'm not sure he needs to be the dominant figure, as he's pretty much shown he's not up to being able to carry a team. But he also has made it clear he's not playing center--Miami and New York have no center--and never has been a defensive stalwart. Bosh has an ego as well and if not the guy to carry a team, which he'd have to be in New York, then he likely doesn't also want to be the guy to be ignored and the third option for a shot. I know we all want to say they'd sacrifice for winning. But you also want to be a large part of that.
Plus, Bosh is most likely, along with Joe Johnson, to want a sign-and-trade. Johnson will for sure if he were to leave, because five years from now at his age, now 29, there'd be no way he'd be in position for a $28 million pay day, which is about the final year of a six-year contract. Likely Bosh as well, even though he's 26. A dozen years into his career, it's hard to see how Bosh would command a salary that high.
In addition, there's little chance in a new labor deal after next summer anyone would be able to make that kind of money in one season in the future. That is also why Wade stays in Miami. At 28 and with a history of injuries, Wade needs to cash in now as well.
The only one who really doesn't need to is LeBron, who is 25 and likely to still be in his prime if he were to leave and sign for five years. The Cavs seem to have made it clear they are not doing any sign and trade to accommodate LeBron, especially to an Eastern team. But LeBron has outside earnings interests that basically none of the others have with the exception, perhaps to a limited extent, of Wade.
Meetings began just after midnight Eastern Time Thursday morning, with LeBron's expected to last about three days. The thinking is he'll commit to someone fairly soon after that, as he's been accused enough already of making this a circus-like atmosphere. Some of those meetings will be based on whether the team can produce another free agent to join LeBron and whom that might be. Despite what you may have heard, LeBron isn't delivering anyone else. He's expecting a team to show him what they can do, not unlike Wade, who has been asking the same of the Heat.
Yes, the heat is on and there are an awful lot of team executives sweating.
So what's going to happen and who's going where? I think the Bulls do have a pretty good shot to hit the jackpot, though I don't see it in the end.
LeBron James: Cavs. Since when did they get so bad? They just won 127 games in two seasons and had LeBron himself not gone into that mysterious Game 5 pout against the Celtics they probably would have won that series. They are getting a new coach, likely Byron Scott or Brian Shaw, both appealing to James for their championship playing experience. Plus, because they are over the cap they have the mid level exception and will be able to give someone a $35 million deal, which will get you a very good player in this era. Anderson Varejao can be somewhat like Joakim Noah at center. They have Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams, near All Stars and potentially could have cap room after one more season. He just built a huge mansion near Akron, where the Cavs built their training facility and can you go home again after being the basketball version of Art Modell, who stole your team and chance for something special. And there's that extra approximately $30 million he gets from staying a sixth year. I know he has a lot of money. But that's what Michael Jordan made when he finally hit it big with the Bulls. And after next summer with a new labor deal, those kinds of one season paydays are probably over with. I believe his only other choice will be Chicago if the Bulls can attract Chris Bosh, whom I believe they will. LeBron will have a tough time making that choice, but eventually will stay home.
Chris Bosh: Bulls. This would be a huge coup for the Bulls, even if LeBron doesn't come. If they get a commitment from Bosh, it makes them the most appealing to LeBron. Though the complication is a sign-and-trade. Bosh wants it and all things being equal will go to another team that's close if he can get it. I believe Miami is out because all they can really offer is Michael Beasley, whom I've heard the Raptors won't take because of his myriad of issues. Heck, with his record he might not even make it past customs. Same with Chalmers. So forget that. Would Bosh go to Houston to play with Yao? The Mavs? The Lakers made sense, but they say they are out. We'll see. The Raptors surely would prefer Bosh out of the East and could get a decent sign-and-trade involving Luis Scola and then maybe build up a deal to enable the Raptors to get rid of Hedo Turkoglu or Jose Calderon. But would Bosh want to go there? That's why he's the mystery in all this. He seems the toughest to read with statements one day he wants to be the main man and then the obvious that he cannot be. He's given the Raptors a list of seven teams he'd go to for a sign and trade, so there are options for the Raptors. Chicago would fit him perfectly as there's a center so he doesn't have to play there and worry about defense and a point guard who doesn't really want to be the leading scorer and he can be the leading scorer without having to carry the load, seemingly ideal for him. I've heard he's been in touch regularly with Rose and has told Rose of his interest previously. In the end, my guess is the Raptors take Taj Gibson, three No. 1s and the maximum $3 million. That's also a huge trade exception for them and they can do some maneuvering on their own. Is that enough to attract LeBron? But then LeBron comes at less money and he's the man while Bosh makes more. I've never seen that as a happy locker room in the NBA. I wouldn't be surprised if Bosh would prefer it that way without LeBron because then the Bulls would be in position to win the East and LeBron would be without a super teammate as he likely wouldn't go to Miami. Then the Bulls go for a shooting guard like Ray Allen, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer or J.J. Redick. The Bosh scenario is the scenario to watch most closely. I see the Bosh/Carlos Boozer tandem as the main possibilities for the Bulls and Heat. So if Bosh flees, the battle likely is over Boozer.
Dwyane Wade: Miami. He's not going anywhere and leaving that extra $28 million or so on the table, the lack of state taxes, South Beach and it looks like him getting custody of his kids and why would he want to be anywhere else? He'll get a power forward partner. Bosh is his choice as he and Bosh share agents. But he probably realizes there isn't a huge chance. Pat Riley has privately said for months the Heat is getting LeBron, but that's no place to build an international brand as LeBron wants to do. I know, Cleveland probably isn't, either, but you get some credit for staying and building. Wade will visit the Bulls among a few other spots, but it's hard to see that as other than a fact finding visit about what those teams are up to as Wade has been very open, the most among the top free agents, in personally recruiting.
Joe Johnson: Atlanta. Once word started to come out that the Hawks were going to offer Johnson a max deal, it was over. There's no way he could walk away from six years and $126 million at age 29 and coming off that desultory playoff finish that labeled him to some not even worth a five year maximum. I'd take him, and he was committed as much as anyone to the Bulls for much of the season. But the Hawks make a good point in saying even with Chicago having someone like Bosh they are as good as the Bulls with Johnson and a chance to add a mid level player and Jamal Crawford going into his final season and trade material. And without Kirk Hinrich there wasn't any real sign and trade possibility with Atlanta for the Bulls. The Mavs will try a sign and trade with Caron Butler, but the Hawks are for sale and like with the Tribune's view of the Soriano signing when the team was being sold, what's the big deal. The next guy will pay the contract.
Carlos Boozer: Miami. Though he has his Coconut Grove home up for sale. Boozer is also the Bulls fallback if somehow Bosh gets to Miami and Wade. As I said, I cannot see it as he is likely to get a reasonable sign and trade somewhere he prefers and as much a competitor as Bosh might be, he's not about to go for winning while he makes all the monetary sacrifice and Wade makes none. With slightly less than $30 million after signing Wade, the Heat have money for an additional guy after signing Boozer and that should be enough to at least keep Wade there. Look, without a low post All Star they won 47 games. They should still be right there in the mix. But rather than everyone coming together I see most of them going for what's best for each and the Lakers still the favorite coming into next season.
Amar'e Stoudemire: Suns. The assumption in Phoenix has been owner Robert Sarver won't pay Stoudemire. Stoudemire's not likely to warrant a huge sign and trade or likely any. He's cocky, but he has it awfully good in Phoenix with Steve Nash and a comfort zone now. There remain concerns about the possibilities of more surgery, though he is fine now, after microfracture a few years back. He may be too much of a risk on the outside, though the Nets could take a shot.
David Lee: Nets. The Nets are the wildcard in the LeBron race because everyone with an arched eyebrow wonders what the new Russian oligarch owner will promise LeBron. The league will be watching, though they are more like the SEC trying to figure out what the banks are doing. They don't have the expertise to examine these kinds of holdings and business deals. If the owner puts away a $100 million annuity for LeBron, no one would ever know. Heck, it could be in gold bars with his initials on them in some country without vowels. Lee doesn't need to be a savior in New York when they strike out. He could play off Brook Lopez well with his new shooting and help Lopez' rebounding and give time for Derrick Favors to develop.
Dirk Nowitzki: Dallas. I know he talks all the time about nothing meaning much but winning, but he does have an owner who will make moves. Cuban is all over the free agents to try for a sign and trade and will be trying hard for Bosh as well. The money is too big to pass on and the possibilities of being better than Dallas now are uncertain.
Paul Pierce. Celtics. Likewise with Nowitzki, he's a lifer. His value likely isn't that much anyway as he was part of one of the losingest teams ever until Garnett and Ray Allen showed up. He wants a longer deal and certainly will get it.
Rudy Gay. Knicks. Rudy will be the biggest winner because the Knicks cannot come out of this empty handed and have the most money to waste. Gay will be the most not worth it, but he's a lot better than trying to resign Al Harrington. He's a huge talent and can be a spectacular player with a personality that can fit the city. They'll make runs at other players and throw such a front loaded deal at Memphis since Rudy is restricted that Elvis will roll over in his grave.
Of course, sources who may or may not know assure me this may or may not happen. But it sure is going to be fun to find out. How sweet it is!
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