Sam Smith: Rewriting NBA Draft History

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Posted by Sam Smith | asksam@bulls.com | 06.23.09 | 4:10 p.m. CT

What if you could go back in time, knowing then what you know now? Everyone fantasizes about doing that in their lives, because we all know we could have been smarter, or, at the very least, way more confident with our choices in life. Everyone has moments they wish they could change.

The NBA Draft is one of the most second-guessed events in sports because it is so inexact. When it comes to picking the right players, general managers have to measure a young kid who has often played against lesser competition and try to imagine how he will hold up and respond to bigger situations against better talent.

Now, let's get this straight - everyone makes mistakes. Some of them are really big ones. So if you're a NBA GM, in all honesty all you can really do is hope to get it right most of the time.

With the NBA Draft just a couple days away, I decided to take a look at the last 10 drafts and rerate each of them. We're essentially stepping back in history and rewriting the books. What would you do today if you had the chance to re-draft?

In doing this exercise, what I found most interesting is that a lot of team executives tend to have a pack mentality when it comes to the Draft. These men seem to follow the same set of guidelines, but some also tend to make the same mistakes over and over.

Basically, these appear to be the four main rules:

You see, it's much safer to do what everyone else does.

Of course, there are always exceptions to these rules and a good number of team bosses make some savvy moves. But like in life, it's usually safer and more socially acceptable to not rock the boat by staying in agreement with your peers.

It's perhaps why if you're a really smart evaluator, you'll find some top-notch players every now and then with a low first round or medium second round pick, while everyone else is busy trying to land a knockout punch. Too often teams spend their time trying to land an All-Star with every pick instead of securing solid players who can fill a needed role and be in the rotation.

The truth is it's virtually impossible to get it right even much of the time. Every team does an amazing amount of research on every player in the Draft. They give these guys all sorts of physical and psychological tests and explore their entire family backgrounds. But even with all that, one never really knows if a guy is going to work hard once you sign him to a multi-million dollar deal. Does he want to take the big shot or does he just want to be part of the background? Can he stand up to the public and media scrutiny and live the right life? Will he stay healthy? When it comes to the Draft, there's generally way more luck than skill involved.

Here's a look at the top 10 picks in the last 10 Drafts, along with a look at the top 10 in each of those same Drafts if I could do them today.