Playoff Race Update: Too Close With Two Games To Play

It's never easy.

After clinching a spot in the 2018 postseason over a week ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Trail Blazers would sew up homecourt advantage, if not the three seed, at some point during their four-game road trip. There was even talk that they might clinch homecourt early enough to rest some of their key players in the final week of the season.

But things haven't played out that way. After a truly confounding loss to the Dallas Mavericks, the Trail Blazers dropped games to the Rockets and Spurs to go winless during their time in Texas, cutting what was a comfortable lead for the three seed down to just 1.5 games over the four seed Jazz. And had the Spurs not taken back-to-back losses to the L.A. teams earlier in the week, Portland's situation would be far more tenuous.

But as it currently stands, the Trail Blazers are still the odds-on favorites to get homecourt, as they need just one win in their final two games versus the Nuggets and Jazz to guarantee they'll start the postseason in Portland. Jazz losses help the Trail Blazers' cause. So do losses for the Spurs and Pelicans (they play each other in their last games of the season, so only the winner of that matchup could conceivably catch the Trail Blazers, though you should root for the Pelicans since the Trail Blazers own that tiebreaker). Oklahoma City is no threat, as they can only match the Trail Blazers' record and do not own the tiebreaker, so their final two games don't matter much in terms of Portland's seeding, though it does matter in terms of playoff matchups.

And then there's the three seed. The Trail Blazers winning both of their remaining games would ensure the Northwest Division title and the three seed, though it's debatable whether that's actually a good thing, as it could be argued whichever team ends up as the fifth seed is a better matchup than the sixth seed. You could also argue it would be advantageous to play the Rockets in the second round in the one-four matchup rather than you are facing the Warriors in the two-three matchup (assuming Houston and Golden State advance). So whether or not you're rooting for securing the three seed depends entirely on which side you come down on those debates. But consider this: would you rather be locked into the three seed with a less favorable matchup or have the option of picking the more favorable matchup by either winning or losing the last game of the season?

While the answers to those questions largely depend on which team you think Portland matches up best with, all can agree that the Trail Blazers do not want to go into their season finale versus the Jazz on April 11 needing a win to secure homecourt. Utah losing one of their two games against the Lakers and Warriors prior to the finale would negate that scenario, but the Trail Blazers could do the work themselves by finishing their final road trip of the regular season with a win in Denver.

With all of that said, here is the final playoff race breakdown of the season. The Clippers have been eliminated from playoff contention, and thus, have been dropped from the update, which includes all games played through Saturday, April 7.

Overall record: 48-32 | Conference record: 30-20 | Division record: 8-6Home record: 27-13 | Away record: 21-19 | Games back: 16

Remaining home games: 1 (4/11 vs. Jazz)Remaining road games: 1 (4/9 @ Nuggets)

Remaining games versus teams under .500: 0Remaining games versus teams over .500: 2 (1 home, 1 away)

Magic Numbers: The Trail Blazers magic number for clinching homecourt advantage is any combination of wins or Jazz losses equaling one.

Overall record: 46-33 | Conference record: 32-17 | Division record: 7-8Home record: 27-13 | Away record: 19-20 | Games back: 17.5

Remaining home games: 1 (4/10 vs. Warriors)Remaining road games: 2 (4/8 @ Lakers, 4/11 @ Trail Blazers)

Remaining games versus teams under .500: 2 (1 home, 1 away) Remaining games versus teams over .500: 1 (0 home, 1 away)

Tiebreaker: The Jazz currently lead the season series 2-1 versus the Trail Blazers with one game to play (which also happens to be the last game of the season for both teams). If the Jazz win the final meeting, they win the tiebreaker. If the Trail Blazers win, and thus, tie the season series 2-2, the next tiebreaker is division winner. If neither the Blazers nor Jazz win the Northwest Division, the next tiebreaker is division record (The Trail Blazers currently have a 8-6 record in the Northwest Division, while the Jazz have a 7-8 division record).

Overall record: 46-34 | Conference record: 25-25 | Division record: 8-7Home record: 23-17 | Away record: 23-17 | Games back: 18

Remaining home games: 1 (4/11 vs. Spurs)Remaining road games: 1 (4/9 @ Clippers)

Remaining games versus teams under .500: 0 Remaining games versus teams over .500: 2 (1 home, 1 away)

Tiebreaker: The Pelicans and Trail Blazers finished their season series tied at 2-2, so the first tiebreaker would be division winner (the Pelicans cannot win their division while the Trail Blazers are currently first place in the Northwest Division). If the Blazers do not win the Northwest Division, the tiebreaker then goes to win percentage against teams in the Western Conference. New Orleans has a conference record of 25-25 and cannot match Portland's conference record of 30-20 with two games to play, so the Blazers own the tiebreaker.

Overall record: 46-34 | Conference record: 28-22 | Division record: 9-6Home record: 32-8 | Away record: 14-26 | Games back: 18

Remaining home games: 1 (4/9 vs. Kings)Remaining road games: 1 (4/11 @ Pelicans)

Remaining games versus teams under .500: 1 (1 away) Remaining games versus teams over .500: 1 (1 away)

Tiebreaker: The Spurs own the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series 2-1.

Overall record: 46-34 | Conference record: 27-28 | Division record: 5-11 Home record: 26-14 | Away record: 20-20 | Games back: 18

Remaining home games: 1 (4/11 vs. Grizzlies)Remaining road games: 1 (4/9 @ Heat)

Remaining games versus teams under .500: 1 (1 home, 0 away) Remaining games versus teams over .500: 3 (1 away)

Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers own the tiebreaker over the Thunder thanks to sweeping the season series 4-0.

Overall record: 45-35 | Conference record: 32-18 | Division record: 9-6Home record: 28-11 | Away record: 17-24 | Games back: 19

Remaining home games: 2 (4/9 vs. Grizzlies, 4/11 vs. Nuggets)Remaining road games: 0

Remaining games versus teams under .500: 1 (1 home) Remaining games versus teams over .500: 1 (1 home)

Tiebreaker: At 45-35 with two games to play, the Timberwolves cannot tie the Trail Blazers' record.

Overall record: 45-35 | Conference record: 27-23 | Division record: 8-6Home record: 30-10 | Away record: 15-25 | Games back: 19

Remaining home games: 3 (4/3 vs. Pacers, 4/5 vs. Timberwolves, 4/9 vs. Trail Blazers)Remaining road games: 2 (4/7 @ Clippers, 4/11 @ Timberwolves)

Remaining games versus teams under .500: 0 Remaining games versus teams over .500: 5 (3 home, 2 away)

Tiebreaker: At 45-35 with two games to play, the Nuggets cannot tie the Trail Blazers' record.