Playoff Race Update » A Good Weekend For Avoiding The Play-In

May 10, 202110:55 AM PDT

The play-in tournament might not have killed the playoff "magic number" but it greatly reduced its usefulness.

In previous seasons, a team generally knew about 10 days in advance of the end of the regular season how many games they'd have to win combined with the number of games their closest rivals would have to lose in order to ensure a spot in the postseason, a calculation known throughout sports as the "magic number." But with the introduction of the play-in tournament, the teams that finish the season in seventh or eighth, positions that previously came with guaranteed playoff berths, are no longer assured of a spot in the postseason. Not to mention that the teams finishing in ninth and tenth now have a chance to claim one of the last two playoff spots whereas before, those teams' years ended with their final regular season game.

So with only the top six teams guaranteed a playoff spot and teams from fifth through tenth all still in jeopardy of ending up in the play-in tournament, it's rather vexing to come up with "magic number" for the Trail Blazers despite their being just four games to play. The issue, at least for another day or so, is the possibility of three-way ties. With three-way ties between the Blazers, Mavericks and Lakers (I believe this three-way tie would finish Mavericks, Blazers, Lakers) as well as three-way ties between the Blazers, Lakers and Warriors (I believe this three-way tie would finish Blazers, Lakers, Warriors), still on the table, and the loser of those ties ending up in seventh, and thus, not being a guaranteed playoff team, there's too much uncertainty for this reporter to be able to state emphatically how many Trail Blazers wins combined with losses for the Lakers and/or Warriors for sixth, and Trail Blazers wins and Mavericks losses for fifth, it would take to ensure a spot in the postseason.

But here's what we do know: the Trail Blazers greatly improved their chances of finishing sixth or better by winning back-to-back games versus the Lakers and Spurs last week. There's still a possibility of moving past the Mavericks to get into fifth, though they'll need some help from Dallas' opponents, none of which have much to play for. And if they win three of their last four games, they are very likely to end the season no worse than sixth (the prospect of a three-way tie between the Trail Blazers, Lakers and Warriors is no longer possible the next time Golden State loses, which would bring some clarity to the situation). They'll finish no worse than tenth and no better than fifth. Everything in between is still on the table.

Here's where the playoff race in the West stands with four games to play.

DALLAS MAVERICKS, 5TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

Overall record: 40-28 | Conference record: 20-19 | Division record: 6-4Home record: 19-15 | Away record: 21-13 | Games back from 1st: 10

Remaining home games: 2 (5/12 vs. Pelicans, 5/14 vs. Raptors)Remaining road games: 2 (5/11 @ Grizzlies, 5/16 @ Timberwolves)

Remaining games versus teams over .500: 1 (0 home, 1 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 3 (2 home, 1 away)

Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers own the tiebreaker versus the Mavericks by virtue of winning the season series 2-1.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS, 6TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

Remaining home games: 2 (5/10 vs. Rockets, 5/16 vs. Nuggets)Remaining road games: 2 (5/12 @ Jazz, 5/13 @ Suns)

Remaining games versus teams over .500: 3 (1 home, 2 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 1 (1 home, 0 away)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS, 7TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

Remaining home games: 2 (5/11 vs. Knicks, 5/12 vs. Rockets)Remaining road games: 2 (5/15 @ Pacers, 5/16 @ Pelicans)

Remaining games versus teams over .500: 1 (1 home, 0 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 3 (1 home, 2 away)

Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers own the tiebreaker versus the Lakers by virtue of winning the season series 2-1.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS, 8TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

Remaining home games: 4 (5/10 vs. Jazz, 5/11 vs. Suns, 5/14 vs. Pelicans, 5/16 vs. Grizzlies)Remaining road games: 0

Remaining games versus teams over .500: 3 (3 home, 0 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 1 (1 home, 0 away)

Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers own the tiebreaker versus the Warriors by virtue of winning the season series 2-1.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, 9TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

Remaining home games: 4 (5/10 vs. Pelicans, 5/11 vs. Mavericks, 5/13 vs. Kings, 5/14 vs. Kings)Remaining road games: 1 (5/16 @ Warriors)

Remaining games versus teams over .500: 2 (1 home, 1 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 3 (3 home, 0 away)

Tiebreaker: The Grizzlies own the tiebreaker versus the Trail Blazers by virtue of winning the season series 2-1.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS, 10TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

Remaining home games: 3 (5/10 vs. Bucks, 5/15 vs. Suns, 5/16 vs. Suns)Remaining road games: 2 (5/12 @ Nets, 5/13 @ Knicks)

Remaining games versus teams over .500: 5 (3 home, 2 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 0 (0 home, 0 away)

Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers own the tiebreaker versus the Spurs by virtue of winning the season series 2-1. However, with five games to play, the Spurs cannot finish the season tied with the Trail Blazers.

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS, 11TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

Remaining home games: 1 (5/15 vs. Lakers)Remaining road games: 3 (5/10 @ Grizzlies, 5/12 @ Mavericks, 5/14 @ Warriors)

Remaining games versus teams over .500: 5 (1 home, 3 away) Remaining games versus teams under .500: 0 (0 home, 0 away)

Tiebreaker: The Trail Blazers own the tiebreaker versus the Pelicans by virtue of sweeping the season series 3-0. However, with four games to play, the Pelicans cannot finish the season tied with the Trail Blazers.

SACRAMENTO KINGS, 12TH IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

Remaining home games: 2 ( 5/11 vs. Thunder, 5/16 vs. Jazz)Remaining road games: 2 (5/13 @ Grizzlies, 5/14 @ Grizzlies)