We’ve got the first elimination game on the NBA slate for the second round of the playoffs. The Boston Celtics currently lead the Cleveland Cavaliers, 3-1, in the best-of-seven series. One more win, and the Cavaliers would be eliminated.
Meanwhile, we’re guaranteed at least six games in the Mavericks-Thunder series. With the series tied 2-2, this Game 5 will be pivotal.
Here are my two favorite NBA picks for tonight’s playoff action.
Wednesday’s Top NBA Picks
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
The Cavaliers won’t throw in the towel even without Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen. Cleveland covered the spread at home in Game 4 despite being without their two best players. Cleveland has enough depth. In the most recent game, the Cavaliers added 16.5% of turnovers and held the Celtics to 118.7 points per 100 possessions.
On the other hand, the Celtics only turned the ball over 8.8% of the time and scored 111 points per 100 possessions. But that was ultimately due to the Cavaliers’ inability to add offensive rebounds and get to the foul line. While the foul shots and second chances will stay limited, it can’t get much worse. Plus, the last time the Cavaliers were on the road, in Game 2, Cleveland added a 65.2% effective field goal percentage and scored 134.5 points per 100 possessions.
There’s almost no doubt that the Boston Celtics will win tonight’s game. But a 15.5-point spread is a little much, even without Mitchell and Allen.
That said, Mitchell and Allen are still both questionable. It’s probably unlikely they play at this time, but that information isn’t out yet. If either of those two ends up playing, the Cavaliers’ line at 15.5 points won’t be there by game time.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers +15.5 (-115)
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
In Game 4, the Oklahoma City Thunder finally played well defensively again. In Games 2 and 3, the Thunder allowed at least 110.5 points per 100 possessions, which they hadn’t allowed since early April in the regular season.
But in Game 4, the typical Thunder defense finally made an appearance. Oklahoma City held the Mavericks to 100 points per 100 possessions and limited the Thunder to a 47.7% effective field goal percentage. In three of the first four games, the Thunder have kept the Mavericks to a field goal percentage of no better than 49.4%. With the Thunder heading home, Oklahoma City will likely continue its dominant defensive play against the Mavericks.
After all, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving aren’t even the leading scorers for the Mavericks in this series. It’s PJ Washington.
On the other hand, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 34 points, he ultimately did it by shooting a bunch of mid-rangers. He’s incredible at taking those shots, but anybody in the analytics knows these aren’t the best shots to take on an NBA floor. Shai has shot 48.4% from the field in this series while scoring nearly 32 points per game.
It’s taken him more than 23 shots to score 32 points. Therefore, I’m riding the Under 212.5 in Game 5.
NBA Pick: Under 212.5 (-105)
