Inside The 2012 NBA Draft Lottery


With the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery fast approaching, warriors.com recently took the time to answer some of the most frequently asked questions regarding the entire process. Read below to find out everything from when the Lottery will occur, to the likelihood of the Warriors landing one of the top-three draft positions.

When and where will the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery take place?
The 2012 NBA Draft Lottery, where ping-pong balls supplant basketballs as the tools of determining supremacy, will be held on Wednesday, May 30, at the Disney/ABC’s Times Square Studios in New York City. The 28th annual edition of the NBA Draft Lottery will determine the order of selection for the first 14 picks of the 2012 NBA Draft. Warriors General Manager Bob Myers will act as the team's representative at the Lottery.

This year, warriors.com reporter Laurence Scott is in New York City, and he will be providing a variety of updates and video features from Times Square. Watch his first update in the video below.




How does the lottery process work?
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a drum. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Prior to the Lottery, 1,000 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating Lottery teams by a computer.

The Charlotte Bobcats finished the season with the NBA’s worst record (7-59), so they will be assigned 250 combinations. The Houston Rockets, the best team in the lottery at 34-32, will have five combinations out of 1,000.

Four balls will be drawn to the top to determine a four-digit combination. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the number one pick. The four balls are placed back in the drum and the process is repeated to determine the number two and three picks. (Note: If the one unassigned combination is drawn, the balls are drawn to the top again.)

The order of selection for the teams that do not win one of the top three picks will be determined by inverse order of their regular season record. Thus, Charlotte can pick no lower than fourth, Washington (20-46) no lower than fifth, Cleveland (21-45) no lower than sixth, New Orleans (21-45) no lower than seventh, and so on.

The actual Lottery procedure will take place in a separate room prior to the national broadcast on ESPN with NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm of Ernst & Young in attendance.

Following the drawing, team logo cards will be inserted into envelopes marked 1 through 14 by an Ernst & Young representative. These envelopes then will be sealed and brought on-stage, where the announcement of the Lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver. A second representative from each participating team will be seated on-stage. Neither the Deputy Commissioner nor the team representatives will be informed of the Lottery results prior to the opening of the envelopes.

The team whose logo is in the last envelope opened will pick first in the 2012 NBA Draft, to be held on Thursday, June 28, at The Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.


What are the Warriors chances of winning the Lottery?
The Charlotte Bobcats finished the season with the NBA’s worst record (7-59), so they will be assigned 250 combinations. Golden State, which finished the 2011-12 campaign 23-43, will have the seventh most chances with 36 out of a posible 1,000 combinations.

In terms of percentages, there is a 60.00 percent chance that the Warriors will retain their pre-lottery position and obtain the seventh pick. The Warriors do have a chance – 12.66 percent to be exact – of moving up to one of the top three positions in the NBA Draft. To get more specific, the Warriors have a 3.60 percent shot of landing the top selection, a 4.16 percent chance at the second pick and a 4.90 percent shot at the No. 3 pick. Should the Warriors move down in the draft order, their first-round pick will go to the Jazz (via the Nets) as part of the Marcus Williams trade on July 22, 2008. The Warriors will only keep their first-round pick if it remains in the top seven after the Draft Lottery. Otherwise, Utah gets the selection.

NBA DRAFT LOTTERY ODDS

Team
# Combos 1st pick 2nd pick 3rd pick Any top 3 pick
Charlotte
250
25.00%
21.47%
17.72%
64.19%
Washington
199
19.90%
18.78%
17.06%
55.74%
Cleveland
138
13.80%
14.24%
14.53%
42.57%
New Orleans
137
13.70%
14.16%
14.47%
42.33%
Sacramento
76
7.60%
8.44%
9.46%
25.50%
Brooklyn (1)
75
7.50%
8.33%
9.36%
25.19%
Golden State (2)
36
3.60%
4.16%
4.90%
12.66%
Toronto
35
3.50%
4.05%
4.77%
12.32%
Detroit
17
1.70%
2.00%
2.40%
6.10%
Minnesota (3)
11
1.10%
1.30%
1.57%
3.97%
Portland
8
0.80%
0.95%
1.15%
2.90%
Milwaukee
7
0.70%
0.83%
1.01%
2.54%
Phoenix
6
0.60%
0.71%
0.87%
2.18%
Houston
5
0.50%
0.59%
0.72%
1.81%



Will the Lottery affect the second-round draft order?

The second round is ordered in terms of teams' records in the regular season, with the lowest winning percentages selecting first. In the event of teams possessing identical records, such as the Warriors and Raptors, the team drafting earlier in the first round would pick later in the second round. The Warriors, who obtained Brooklyn's second-round pick (as part of the Brandan Wright and Dan Gadzuric trade on February 23, 2011), will pick fifth or sixth in the second round (35th or 36th overall), pending the result of the Draft Lottery. Golden State also owns Atlanta's second-round pick, which will be the 52nd overall selection in the Draft. The Warriors' own second round pick was traded to New York as part of the David Lee trade on July 22, 2008.



Want more information on the Warriors history in the Lottery? Check out some of the following links.

  • Warriors Draft Lottery History
  • Warriors Draft Pick Status
  • Year-By-Year Lottery Probabilities
  • Year-By-Year Lottery Selections
  • NBA Pre-Lottery Position History
  • Top 14 Draft Picks Since 1980