Finally, we get a chance to take a breath.
The last week has been an absolute whirlwind. Last Monday the Wolves shipped out Jimmy Butler and Justin Patton for Robert Covington, Dario Saric and Jerryd Bayless. They then went on to win three games in a row, Prince night happened and the new additions shined. The streak was snapped on Sunday in an ugly loss to the Grizzlies.
The honeymoon period is over, now the work begins—the work of figuring out what kind of team the Wolves are going to be for the rest of the season. For the sake of argument, let’s throw out the Wolves victory over the Nets because the team was at far less than full strength and the new guys hadn’t even practiced yet and look three numbers that jump out from the last three games. Obviously, this comes with the caveat of an incredibly small sample size. Right now, however, it’s the sample we have. I am not a patient person so yes, I will be jumping to conclusions.
Number No. 1: 12.7
This is a fun one. That’s the number of threes the Wolves have hit per game since Saric and Covington started playing with Minnesota. The Wolves have hit the fifth-most threes in the league over the last three. The teams above them? The Rockets, Bucks, Pistons and Nuggets. Fun fact: the Warriors are in last in per-game 3PM in that span—they’ve made just six per game.
Anyways, the Wolves are certainly going to be making more threes with Covington and Saric on the team, both of whom have flashed truly exciting shooting ability. The shooting is more than just a commitment to taking more threes—the Wolves are hitting them at a fantastic clip. Minnesota has shot 42.7 percent from three since Saric and Covington started playing. That’s the third-best mark in the league.
Coach Tom Thibodeau often hears criticism for not running a “modern NBA offense.” That criticism is not fair. Thibodeau has had the Wolves shooting more threes than they ever have. This season so far has contained two of the top five games in Wolves history in terms of attempted threes and seen the team set a franchise record for made three. Thibodeau has always said that threes and dunks are the most important baskets—if that’s not 2018 NBA logic I don’t know what is.
Number No. 2: 97.7
That’s the Wolves’ defensive rating in their last three games. In a league where teams are consistently scoring far over 100 points per game, that’s an incredibly solid number—fifth best in the NBA. It hasn’t come against weak offenses either. Minnesota held Portland to 96 points. A big part of that number? The Wolves are stealing the ball 11 times per game and forcing 16 turnovers. The other part of it? The Wolves have only allowed their opponents to shoot 42.4 percent from the field and 28.3 percent from three.
Those numbers are probably not sustainable, but they demonstrate the way the Wolves are committed to playing defense. They are extremely aggressive, but they’re not gambling. It’s hard to get a lot of steals without taking risks being out of possession. What the Wolves are is opportunistic without being risky. That’s the ultimate hallmark of a good defense. The three-point percentage is especially nice—teams are trying to shoot more and more threes ever week it seems, and in that arms race it becomes easier and easier to beat teams if you deny them open looks from beyond the arc. Let’s hope the trend continues.
Number No. 3: 67.5
This one is a little bit of a deep cut but it might be the most important stat of the bunch. Sixty-seven and a half is the Wolves’ assist percentage since Covington and Saric came aboard. It’s the best assist percentage in the league.
Think for a minute what that number means. Well over half of the Wolves’ buckets are coming directly after a pass. The iso possessions are drying up and the ball is moving effectively. While assist percentage is a great indicator of ball movement it doesn’t even capture the whole picture. The other thing that ball movement does is force rotations and create mismatches. That way, even if Wolves players do go into isolation, they do so in situations that are much more likely to result in success.
Covington and Saric are key in the Wolves’ assist percentage being so good. Saric is a wonderful distributor and both are excellent shooters. Three-pointers, unless they are in in transition, are very likely to come off of assists from kickouts or swinging the ball around the arc. Making those extra passes has been a huge factor in the Wolves’ rising three-point percentage.