by Jim Petersen, Wolves Radio Analyst

This is the best time of year in the NBA. The long 82-game grind has melted away along with the snow and cold of winter, and now it's time to find out who will be World Champions of the NBA.

Wally Szczerbiak ranked fourth in the NBA in three-point percentage, registering a career-high 45.5 percent. David Sherman, NBAE/Getty Images

I made two main predictions concerning the Minnesota Timberwolves way back in October. First, I felt that the defensive rules changes, along with the Wolves' tremendous length and Coach Flip Saunders' decision to move Wally Szczerbiak to shooting guard, would give the Minnesota a chance to win the Midwest Division. I also looked at the team's five first-round playoff defeats and predicted Minnesota would finally win a playoff series. Terrell Brandon's knee injury, coupled with the Nuggets' fire sale to the Mavs and David Robinson's healthy season, took care of the first prediction, but I'm still not willing to give up on my second. This is a very winnable series for the Wolves, but before I tell you about the matchup, I want to give you a few numbers to chew on about the best-of-five playoff format.

In a five-game series, two factors usually determine which team comes out on top: the team that wins game one, and home-court advantage. Here are the numbers:

172	Number of times the five-game format has been used
143	Number of times the team that wins game one, wins the series
125	Number of times the team with home-court wins series
6	Number of times teams have come back from 2-0 deficit to win

It is interesting to note that this Dallas team defied the odds on all accounts just last season. They are one of only six teams in NBA history to come back from an 0-2 deficit to win a first round best-of-five playoff series (Robert Pack's #8 seed Nuggets also did it against the #1 seed Seattle Sonics in 1994). The Mavericks lost to Utah at the Delta Center twice to open the 2001 playoffs and then came back to win three in a row, including a dramatic 84-83 victory at Delta Center to finish the series.

So as you can see, while it is possible to defy the odds, the Wolves need to win Game One to avoid running into the law of averages. Many would say that just getting a split would be good enough, thus gaining home court advantage, but the Wolves split their first two games at Seattle in 1998 and San Antonio in 1999 and still came up short. Better yet, I liked Flip's idea of stating that his team will win two, as he also said last season against the Spurs. While it's fodder for the media, you must instill this type of mindset with your players that winning two is the goal.

Nick Van Exel was traded to the Mavericks on Feb. 21. Glenn James, NBAE/Getty Images

On the trade deadline, Saunders and Kevin McHale made seemingly a great deal for the Wolves. They got Marc Jackson from the Warriors for the beloved, but little-used, Dean Garrett. Wonderful, Minnesota gets some extra size, rebounding and more help for KG in the paint. Then a few minutes later, I was sitting with some folks in the press lounge when we saw on television that the Mavericks made "The Trade" that brought the volatile but talented Nick Van Exel and the shot blocking, three-point-shooting center Raef LaFrentz to Big D. I thought to myself, "checkmate."



The trade has made the Mavericks one of the most exciting teams to watch in the NBA. The Big Three of Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki and Michael Finley and the additions of Van Exel and LaFrentz helped Dallas set a team record for wins this season and also record an NBA-best 27-14 road mark. I know, after playing for Mavs coach Don Nelson when he was at Golden State, this is his kind of team. Great jump-shooters who can put the ball on the floor and create, supported by good role players, and a team filled with interchangeable parts. They also have good defensive players, including guys like Greg Buckner, Adrian Griffin, Eduardo Najera and Shawn Bradley, who has been very disruptive against the Wolves in the past. Wang Zhizhi is playing the part of 7-7, 211-pound Manute Bol for Nelson, the unlikely big guy who jacks up three-point shots to the delight of NBA fans all over the world. Manute cast up threes with little success, but the scary part is that Zhizhi is really good at it, hitting 41 percent (48-of-116) from three point range. Don't go to sleep on him if he's outside the three-point line — he's the real deal.

The only player with real playoff experience for Dallas is former San Antonio Spur Avery Johnson, another of the Denver players to come over in the big trade. The "Little General" has been placed on the inactive roster for the entire playoffs and will be added as a coach to Don Nelson's already large coaching staff. I think that was a mistake — I want to go to war with Avery Johnson in uniform because he is a tough guy who knows how to win.

Kevin Garnett earned a team-record 59 double-doubles this season. D. Clarke Evans, NBAE/Getty Images

The Wolves start out the season 40-19 and finish 10-13. We have seen how winning breeds harmony in the Wolves locker room; however, the rumblings of discontent at the end of the season are difficult to overlook. But let me say this from experience, you try spending literally almost everyday with someone and see how much you dig their act after seven months in the pressure cooker of an 82-game NBA schedule — it ain't easy. The Wolves' locker room is filled with good people who like each other. Let's just hope they have enough talent to beat the Dallas Mavericks, who have plenty.

The Wolves will only go as far as Kevin Garnett will take them. He and Wally both must be front and center in Game One for the Wolves to win this series. They must both be productive and not have bad starts, but more importantly, strong fourth quarters are essential. Chauncey Billups has done an admirable job filling in for Brandon this season. I love Chauncey. He is a guy who wants to get better and loves to play. He has heart and has gained a lot of respect around the league when many people had written him off. He is another guy who must play well if the Wolves are going to "shock the world."

My concerns for this playoff series are primarily with the bench. Flip has hinted that he may start Sam Mitchell in place of Joe Smith to match Sam with Nowitzki and KG with Najera. If Sam doesn't start, he doesn't seem to make it into Flip's rotation as readily coming off the bench, but he should in this series.

Anthony Peeler might be just as important as Billups in many respects, mainly because Flip loves to play him in late-game situations. If AP is a primetime player, he must make good decisions and hopefully his jumper is on. Smith and Gary Trent have to score — Joe with the jumper, Gary with the post-up.

This series will be won or lost by the team who has the greatest number of players playing as offensively efficient as possible — and these two guys have to bring it. The Wolves need toughness, and Smith and Trent are just the guys to supply added support for KG and Rasho Nesterovic.

Steve Nash led the Mavericks with 7.7 assists per game. Rocky Widner, NBAE/Getty Images

1. Shooting Percentage (it's gonna be a gunfight): I think this is the number one key in the series. Will you be like Chuck Conners in "The Rifleman" or like Barney Fife trying to dig your bullet out of your front shirt pocket? The Wolves have the gunfighters in KG, Wally, Chauncey and AP — but they must also shoot a high percentage by dominating the paint and getting easy baskets in transition.
   
2. Bench Scoring: If the Wolves get little or no production from Anthony Peeler, Gary Trent and Robert Pack, it will be three and out.
   
3. Play physical with the Mavericks: The Mavs are just as talented as the Sacramento Kings, but not as physical. You have to pound them in the painted area. Don't let the high-flying Finley get the crowd involved by doing one of gravity-defying dunks. And contain Nash, because he can give you the blues if you let him run all over the floor with the basketball. Go jaw-to-jaw with Nowitzki.

This series is winnable for Minnesota because the Mavericks, while talented, do not have a tremendous amount of playoff experience. They have put together back-to-back 50-win seasons, but had not been in the playoffs for 10 years before that. Dallas expended a lot of energy trying to win the Midwest division and has some injuries (Nowitzki ankle, Nash back). The Wolves are relatively healthy, except of course for Brandon.

The Wolves and Mavericks split the season series but the Wolves outplayed them three out of four. In my mind, Minnesota winning in Dallas without KG trumps Dallas' 22-point comeback at Target Center. This has been a fun season, and this series will be icing on the cake. I can't think of anything better than watching five All-Stars (Garnett, Szczerbiak, Nash, Nowitzki and Finley) do the unthinkable on the court. Unless, of course, we get to see Shaq and Kobe do the unthinkable, if ya know what I mean. Enjoy the games.