Fantasy Forecast: Week 4
Many fantasy owners couldn’t breathe when they saw Chris Paul go down and cringe in pain as he sprained his ankle this week. A top two pick in any format, CP3 is a huge loss that sent owners scrambling to pick up back-up PG Darren Collison. Paul could be out for as many as 2 weeks, so plan accordingly. Oh, and then there was the rookie that dropped a 55 spot this week. Yes, I am speaking of none other than Brandon Jennings, who was on the waiver wire in 40% of leagues just last week. He isn’t anymore, but that just goes to show you why paying attention to the waiver is essential to win in your league.
Start Em’
Russell Westbrook: Westbrook is a sneaky fantasy PG because Oklahoma City isn’t a very good team and you don’t think they have anyone worth owning outside of Kevin Durant. However, Westbrook is averaging 15.4 points, 7.7 assists, and 4.9 rebounds this season, but his drawback comes in FG% (.430) and FT% (.744). If you can deal with those or your league doesn’t count them, then Westbrook is a great play this week with four games.
Brandon Jennings:I wouldn’t expect more 55 point nights from Jennings, but the kid is averaging 25.6 points, 5.1 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per contest so far. His FG and FT numbers are good, he is seeing nearly 34 minutes a night, and the Bucks need him just as much as he needs them, so Jennings is top tier PG play this week. I’ve seen some rankings that have him as low as #10 this week and that is just crazy.
Dahntay Jones: Jones was known for his defense before he moved to Indiana this season. But, he has been forced into a starting role with Troy Murphy injuring his back and is making the most of it by averaging 16.4 points and 4.1 rebounds per-game. If you need sneaky points at the SG position, I bet Jones is still available in most fantasy leagues.
J.R. Smith: Smith is back from his suspension and is starting to heat up already. In just three games, Smith is averaging 14.3 points, 1.7 steals and 1.7 3-pointers a game. His value really comes from points and 3’s if your league counts them. Smith will only get better as he becomes more comfortable in the offense, so see if you can buy low on him via trade.
Trevor Ariza: Before the season I had Ariza as one of my sleepers and I caught some flak for it. So far Ariza is averaging 19.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.9 steals per-game, so to all those who thought I was wrong I say “HA!” The Rockets have four games this week and I wouldn’t have any issues sticking Ariza in my SF slot.
Charlie Villanueva: Villanueva will qualify at both SF and PF in fantasy leagues, but I am going to stick him in the SF spot because… well… I can. Over the past week Villanueva has averaged 23.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.3 steals and blocks, so he makes a pretty good four game play at either the SF or PF spot.
David West: The Hornets are without CP3 as I said above, so the team is going to lean on West even more this week than they did the rest of the season. New Orleans has four games this week and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see West post averages in the 15 points and 9 rebound range this week… and maybe even a 20+ point game or two.
Carlos Boozer: Boozer is back and looks like a guy that wants to be the best he can on the floor each and every game. So far this season he is averaging 17.6 points and 10.7 rebounds and that is good enough to rank him #1 in the NBA right now. I’d have no issues whatsoever sticking Boozer in my starting PF slot this week.
Greg Oden: Oden was one of my pre-season sleepers and many people told me I was wrong and Oden would be more Sam Bowie than Shaquille O’Neal. From a center, I was rebounds and blocks and Oden has been providing both with 8.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per-game this season. Portland plays four games and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oden finish the week with 10+ blocks.
Roy Hibbert: Hibbert is someone else I had on the sleeper list because I also write for the Pacers and heard very good things about him from Danny Granger. Hibbert is putting up 11.7 points, 9 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks every single game; so playing him at center with four games is an easy call for me this week.
Sit Em’
Jonny Flynn: Flynn has managed to come in and secure the starting PG job despite the Timberwolves signing Ramon Session in the off-season. But, with just two games this week it is not the week to put Flynn into your line-ups.
Darren Collison: Now, I know you want to grab him and start him, but Collison is going to be too erratic to count on. The problem with Collison is that he may score 10 points, but he won’t get you 5+ assists and assists are essential any fantasy PG.
Richard Hamilton: I am not a RIP fan to begin with because all he gives you is empty points. Now, add to that an injury to his ankle and no set time for his return and you will want to make sure you keep him on your bench this week.
Kirk Hinrich: Over the past week Hinrich has averaged 12 points and 5 assists, which is an increase over his season average of 9.9 points and 4.6 assists. With three games this week and two of them against the Lakers and Nuggets, I would leave Hinrich on the bench because I think his numbers will dip back down to the season averages this week.
Andrei Kirilenko: AK47 has found a way to step back into fantasy line-ups this season with his 13.4 points, 5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. But, this week Kirilenko has three games against the Raptors, Pistons, and Spurs, which means tough match-ups will make his normal stats will fluctuate just a bit.
Richard Jefferson: Jefferson is averaging his fewest points-per-game since the 02-03 season and the Spurs face the Jazz and Mavericks of two of their three games. San Antonio plays a team game that means scorers like Jefferson will normally suffer, as he is this season. I’d sit him this week and look to deal him if you can get value because he still has a name.
Al Jefferson: With just two games this week, there is only so much damage big Al can do. This pick isn’t anything more than a lack of chances to play.
Elton Brand: How the mighty have fallen as Brandi s averaging just 9.8 points and 5.3 rebounds this season. Brand is in the same boat as Richard Jefferson with the name value and trading him, but I would almost take whatever I could get for Brand at this point.
Shaquille O’Neal: Shaq has looked somewhat rejuvenated this season playing alongside of Lebron James. But, when you take a look closer you will notice that he is only averaging 11.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks a night in just 24 minutes per-game. Shaq is up and down with the stats and he has a strained shoulder; just sit him this week if you can.
Chuck Hayes: Hayes is getting over 27 MPG, but he is putting up just 6 points and rebounds a night with less than one block. What that means is he isn’t putting up the stats I want from a fantasy center and I would sit him until there is a reason to play him again.
James Morris hails from Rio Rancho, N.M., and has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. In addition to writing the Timberwolves Fantasy Forecast, Morris also writes fantasy articles for the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz as well as the NFL fantasy forecast for the Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, and San Diego Chargers. You can also find him on Twitter or listen to his radio show online at 101.7 FM in Albuquerque, NM.
