Fantasy Forecast: Week 16
Week 16 of the NBA season brings us to the All Star break, which means shortened fantasy schedules and a mid-season recap of fantasy players. As with any fantasy game, some players perform above expectation and get to wear the stud cap, some perform below and are forced to sport the dud cap and yet still others fly under the mainstream radar because while they didn’t do anything wrong, they also did nothing to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack. Since there is only one team with three games this week (Orlando Magic), 20 teams with two games and nine teams with just one game, I will give you a condensed start and sit section and finish off the article with some winners and losers for the first half of the NBA fantasy season.
Start Em’
PG – Jameer Nelson: This is all about sheer number of games played. The Magic play the most games of any NBA team this week and that means Nelson and crew will have the most opportunities to put up numbers for their fantasy owners.SG – Jamal Crawford: Crawford has averaged 18.7 points while shooting 45.6 percent from the field over the past month. This week the Hawks face the Grizzlies and HEAT, so he should be able to reach the 20-plus point mark in one, if not both, games this week.
SF – Rashard Lewis: I’m not really a big fan of Lewis’, but I can’t ignore the Magic’s three-game schedule this week. Lewis has averaged 13.3 points with 5.3 rebounds and 2.3 three pointers a night over the past week, so there is no reason to not play him when the rest of the league plays one or two games and he will play three.
PF – Kenyon Martin: With Anthony missing games, Martin has been the one to step up his game and fill the void. He has averaged for five straight games and eight of the last 10 games. Since I think Anthony sits out this week too, Martin looks like a sexy sleeper for me.
C – Chris Kaman: The easy pick here would have been Dwight Howard, but I can’t name every Orlando Magic player for the Start Em’ section. Kaman is a legit top 10 fantasy center and with his two-game schedule this week I can see him 35-40 points and 15-20 rebounds, with a block or two mixed in for good measure.
Sit Em’
PG – Rajon Rondo: Because the Celtics play just one game this week, I am going to have to sit Rondo heading into the break. If he played in just one more game I would have no problems playing, but the lack of playing time is a killer when every game will count this week.SG – Brandon Rush: Rush was one of the people I put as a starter in my Pacers article last week because he is averaging 12 points and 4.3 rebounds while shooting a blistering 51.4 percent from the field over the past week. The Pacers play just one game this week so see if you can find someone that plays multiple games in his place.
SF – Carmelo Anthony: I am going to sit Anthony this week because he has now missed eight straight games and there is no real for the Nuggets to bring him back with the All Star break upon us. Anthony is questionable for Tuesday’s game, but I think he will miss both the Nuggets games this week.
PF – Antawn Jamison: I think Jamison will average a double-double this week, but he also plays just one game and that doesn’t help in a short week. Jamison is in the same boat as Rondo… lack of games played.
C – Marc Gasol: Gasol has been money for his fantasy owners this season, but the one-game week is going to kill his fantasy value and you could find a better option if you just looked. I’d give Emeka Okafor in New Orleans a look if you own Gasol as a one-week rental player.
Mid-Season Report
Winners:
Carmelo Anthony: Right now Anthony is in third place for scoring with 29.7 PPG (Lebron James has 29.8 PPG and Kevin Durant also has 29.7 PPG), but his average draft position was 26th overall, which equates to about the middle of the second round. I’ll take nearly 30 points a night from my second player picked any day of the week, and twice on Sunday’s!
Corey Maggette: Maggette entered the season projected around the 125-130 range, but he enters week 16 as the 41st ranked player in standard fantasy scoring leagues. If you can get 20.8 points and 6.1 rebounds while shooting 51.9 percent from the field in round 11, I say take it and run.
Losers
Gilbert Arenas: I put Arenas on my Do Not Draft list in all 25 leagues this year because I knew it would be something. I didn’t know what, but I knew there would be something that would keep him off the floor and I was right. Arenas will miss the rest of the season as he serves out a suspension by the league and his fantasy owners wasted yet another high draft pick on him in 2009.
Devin Harris: Harris is having one of those seasons that we all wish we could forget about. He is shooting 38.3 percent from the field and 79.2 percent from the free-throw line, so the 15.8 PPG is a little misleading. The only saving grace for him is the 6.3 assists and 1.4 steals he gets owners nightly. I would still look to trade him while you can because the Nets are a really bad team and Harris is suffering.
Right where we expected them to be
Chris Paul: CP3 entered the fantasy draft as many people’s #1 overall pick, and right now he is leading standard scoring formats with his 20.4 points, 11.2 assists, 2.3 steals and 50.6 percent from the field averages. Paul is going to miss another month or two with a torn meniscus, but he still gave his owners what they expected in the first half of the season.
Monta Ellis: Ellis entered the season projected at around #45 for fantasy players and he heads into week 6 ranked #45. Ellis went through a stretch where he was white-hot, but overall this season he is averaging 26.2 points, 5.4 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 2.1 steals nightly. Ellis is on an up-and-down the court team, so his stats are likely to continue in the second half of the season.
James Morris hails from Rio Rancho, N.M., and has been playing fantasy sports since 1997. In addition to writing the Timberwolves Fantasy Forecast, Morris also writes fantasy articles for the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz as well as the NFL fantasy forecast for the Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, and San Diego Chargers. You can also find him on Twitter or listen to his radio show online at 101.7 FM in Albuquerque, NM.
