Battle of the Bloggers -- No. 1

After scouring the Web to identify the state's most-frequented blogs, we enlisting the top bloggers to discuss Wolves-related issues right here on www.timberwolves.com.

This is your first edition of "The Battle of the Bloggers," and your chance to vote on who best answered our first question. You'll notice the poll if you scroll down on the screen, and hopefully we don't have to explain how to use it. Right?

Remember that we are keeping score here, and will declare a winner at a to-be-determined juncture; I will be dissecting each of the arguments and doing my best to identify both solid points and faulty logic, and you can read that after hearing from the bloggers.

Once again, here are the participants and their respective blogs:
1) Kate Doan: mnsportsfans.com
2) Stephen Litel: minnesotabasketball.blogspot.com; hoopsworld.com
3) Anthony Hall: mvn.com
4) Derek Hanson: twolvesblog.com
5) Dave Kelsey: twolvesblog.com
6) Alex Halsted: minnesotasportszone.com
7) Sonia Grover: iheartkg.com

And here's our first question:

QUESTION:
WILL AL JEFFERSON BECOME AN NBA ALL-STAR THIS SEASON IN HIS FIRST YEAR WITH THE TIMBERWOLVES? WHY OR WHY NOT?

ANSWERS:

1) Kate Doan
Al Jefferson will not make the All-Star team his first season with the Wolves. He may perform at near All-Star level, but the depth at the forward positions in the Western Conference will keep him from the team. While Kevin Garnett, Zach Randolph, and Rashard Lewis have all moved to the Eastern Conference the talent at the forward positions in the West is still considerable. Many factors contribute to whether a player makes the All-Star team, first is fan popularity for the starters, and I simply do not think Al Jefferson has the popularity that can eclipse the likes of forwards Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, or the duo of Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire in the fan voting.

Remember, despite Carmelo’s considerable popularity with fans around the league, he finally achieved All-Star status last season, which shows the height of the hill that a play must climb to make it on the team. Players who do not come with the help of media exposure due to their endorsement contracts, team success usually gets the player on the team as a reserve. I expect that the first time Al makes the All-Star team it will because the team breaks out and begins to win, much like what the Jazz did last season. Although, I’d love Al to be a perennial All-Star, I think that mantle will passed to guys who were declared franchise players before they were even drafted, such as Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony.

2) Stephen Litel
Statistically speaking, if Al Jefferson had put up the same numbers in the Western Conference last season he did in Boston, he would have had an argument to replace the injured Carlos Boozer in the All-Star game. Jefferson’s 16 points and 11 rebounds per game average from last season are significantly better the Mehmet Okur’s 11.8 points and 7.8 rebounds, who eventually replaced Boozer.

Now, with a larger role in the Timberwolves offense then he had last season in Boston, those numbers should only continue to rise. Does that mean that we will see Jefferson in the All-Star game this season? Not necessarily, as there is still a pecking order in which Jefferson must climb among power forwards/centers in the Western Conference.

In a conference which features players named Duncan, Nowitzki, Stoudemire, Boozer, Ming, Brand and Gasol, Jefferson must show in his fourth NBA season he belongs in that same category. With other up-and-comers in the Western Conference like Greg Oden, LeMarcus Aldridge and David West, “Big Al” should have a leg up on the young competition, as he will be the focal point of the Timberwolves attack.

He is more then confident that the 2007-08 season will be his break out year and what better way to do that then by making the NBA All-Star team? If he can push his scoring average up to around 20 points, as well as keeping his rebounding stats the same, Al Jefferson could very well be a lock to make the team.

3) Anthony Hall
Sorry, Big Al. While you’ll be a perennial All-Star down the road, your debut won’t come in the 2007-08 season. Coming into the Western Conference will likely prove to be a difficult transition for Al. The West is home to more quality big men than the East, meaning the competition on the inside just got a lot tougher for Al. I don’t doubt that Al will ultimately prove to be a dominant big man in the West, but the initial challenge of playing in the Western Conference will be a difficult one for him.

Also, Al faces the challenge of playing alongside an inexperienced supporting cast. The big guys rely heavily on their supporting cast for their points, and Al will be playing with one of the youngest teams in the NBA. Give Al a veteran point guard, put an established lineup around him, and I’d give him a better shot at an All-Star spot this season. But that’s just not the situation he’s in with the Timberwolves.

While offensively, Paul Pierce was the first-option in Boston, Jefferson will step into the role of first-option in Minnesota. True, this means more shots for Al, but it also means he’ll be the main focus of opposing defenses for the first time in his NBA career. With tougher big men in the West, an inexperienced supporting cast, and the greater defensive pressure he’ll face, it just doesn’t look like Big Al will get the All-Star nod this season.

4) Derek Hanson
The Timberwolves fan inside of me wants to say that Al Jefferson will be making the trip to the 2008 All-Star Weekend – and not just to help Gerald Green defend his Slam Dunk Competition title. However, the West is loaded with premiere big men, so "Big" Al will have to prove he's one of the largest of them all to make the roster. Considering that Duncan, Nowitzki, and Yao are near-locks for the starting spots, we're left with Amare, Marion, Boozer, and Carmelo as Jefferson's main competition for the 4-5 forward/center reserve spots. If Al can build on last year's 16 points and 11 boards, he will definitely be in the running. There are also intangibles that may open up a spot as well. Boozer is bound to hurt something, and you never know when Carmelo is going to earn another suspension for throwing a sucker punch and scampering away!

Based on merit, Jefferson should be on the roster if his upward trend continues. But there's still the "Oden and Durant" factor to consider. I'd be shocked if either of those two have better numbers than Jefferson, but they'll certainly be more marketable selections for the league. (You know what that means…) To avoid getting "overlooked", Al is going to have to average 20+ points and make the selection of either of the rookies over him unjustifiable. As our go-to guy and franchise player, that goal should certainly be reached. My prediction: 22 points, 13 boards, and an All-Star appearance!

5) Dave Kelsey
As much as it pains me to say this, I cannot endorse Big Al’s All-Star candidacy next season. Don’t get me wrong, I’m ready to embrace Big Al like my own, but we can all spare some collective tears if we are willing to accept reality.

The harsh truth is that the West is already loaded with proven and ultra-talented All-Star big men. Since he entered the league, Big Al has exponentially improved all facets of his game, but will it be enough for this season? Last year’s All-Star big men were extremely productive, and have shown no signs of slowing down or tapering off.

Like it or not, when it comes down to the final few selections, the record of a given team is often correlative towards the likelihood of a given fringe player making the All-Star squad. I’m not saying the Wolves will be atrocious, but typically when it comes down to it, the players on the better teams tend to land the final roster spots. Last season, Ray Allen and KG were the only two players to make the West Squad on sub .500 teams.

However, if Big Al is able to improve his passing, minimize his turnovers, and markedly step up his overall man and help defense, he could become a fixture on the All-Star squad for years to come. You never know… it could happen this season, but I wouldn’t bet your lucky KG boxers on it if I were you. I deplorably answer “No.”

6) Alex Halsted
Al Jefferson put up pretty good numbers last season with averages of 16 points per game and 11 rebounds per game. However, there has been one thing that has really kept him from taking that next step and becoming an All-Star -- injuries. Over the past two seasons, Jefferson has had ankle injuries that have caused him to miss a little time. The ankle injuries, although they didn’t cause him to miss a lot of time last season, did slow him down until he fully recovered later in the season.

Last season however, he did indeed show that he can put up All-Star numbers when healthy as he averaged nearly 20 points per game in March, and 22 points per game in April. Last season, KG averaged 22 points per game and 13 rebounds per game. So, if Jefferson puts up numbers like his final few months last season, he’ll already be pretty close to those “All-Star Numbers”.

In addition to injuries, there have been some questions if Jefferson can compete against the Western Conference big guys, but that that wasn’t too big of a problem last season as he put up good numbers against San Antonio and decent numbers against other teams with good forwards such as the Phoenix Suns.

If Jefferson can stay healthy for the entire season, and continue to progress the way he did towards the end of last season, then there is no doubt in my mind, he’ll be an All-Star.

7) Sonia Grover
After a disappointing sophomore campaign, the centerpiece for the Garnett trade made major strides last season. On par with the league’s quality big men, he averaged 19.8 points and 11.5 rebounds in 25 games after the All-Star break while also increasing his scoring percentage each month. His breakout performance, coupled with a renewed commitment to his game, ensures that Big Al will continue to be a beast.

Despite this, he is by no means a lock for this year’s all-star game. The Western Conference recently lost several all-star caliber forwards, but competition will still be fierce with the likes of Duncan, Nowitzki, Marion, and a healthy Gasol making it all but impossible to land a slot. If Jefferson ends up playing center more frequently, he’ll have a better chance of getting a look. While unlikely to unseat Yao anytime soon, odds for him are slightly higher when vying against competitors such as Stoudemire, Camby, and Okur. Depending on his progression, he could perhaps garner some votes as a backup center.

Also against his favor is that though he fared statistically better against teams from the west, Jefferson will now be facing these tougher opponents more often. In addition, he’ll be doing so while shouldering the offensive load and leadership of a young team.

While not enough for a berth this year, his stellar season, continued improvement, and selection to the USA select team demonstrate that the young player is poised to be a league force and the team’s next all-star.

Mike Trudell, Wolves Reporter
Excellent arguments all around, bloggers. I will now acknowledge what I feel are the best points and highlight the weaker ones for each respective entry. This is just my opinion, so feel free to ignore it and just go vote. I of course have the benefit of hindsight after reading all of the points, and I also installed a 250-word limit on the writers. Lastly, bloggers, we can talk about your getting a chance to fire back at my Monday Morning Quarterbacking:

DOAN
A) You pointed out that the depth at the forward position in the West will keep Big Al from the team. Here are the 2007 All-Star forwards out West: Dirk Nowitzki, KG, Carmelo Anthony, Shawn Marion, Josh Howard and Mehmet Okur. KG went East, along with All-Star Ray Allen and potential All-Stars Zach Randolph, Rashard Lewis and Jason Richardson. Only Dirk, Duncan and Carmelo had better all-around numbers than Big Al last year among the rest of those forwards (we'll talk about Al's center eligibility later).
B) The Carmelo Anthony situation you mentioned was based solely on his big suspension. He was a lock before missing those 15 games and had to get put in late by the Commish.
C) Good point about break-out teams having more All-Stars. That's true in every sport.

LITEL
A) Good call on Jefferson's having a larger role in the Wolves' offense this year. If you had more words I bet you would have talked about Al literally being a perfect fit in the type of low-post oriented, bang-bang style McHale and Wittman envision.
B) You mentioned some of the established vets that are ahead of Jefferson in the "pecking order," though remember that Al's numbers are very favorable to other third-year players (and rising). I had my intern do a whole article on this that'll go out next week.
C) I agree with you that Al will keep his board numbers where they are while improving his scoring, giving him a good statistical shot, at least, to make it.

HALL
A) The margin isn't as far as it seems in terms of quality big men in respective conferences. Shaq, Jermaine O'Neal, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor and now Garnett match up OK with Duncan, Dirk, Amare, Yao, Boozer and Gasol.
B) Like everyone else, you could have looked at Jefferson's season splits last year against the West, when he averaged 16.3 points and 11.3 boards compared to 15.9 and 10.7 vs the East. (Howling to the Future article)
C) I'm struggling with your point about it being tougher to play with an inexperienced supporting cast -- which is generally true, sure -- when that's exactly what Big Al did last year. Paul Pierce missed 35 games last year and Jefferson was the focus of opposing defenses.

HANSON
A) Respect for the point about Carmelo being due for another suspension for throwing a sucker punch. Don't snitch!!!
B) You weren't the only one to mention the Oden and Durant factor, and are correct in mentioning that neither will have better numbers than Jefferson next year. But the marketability factor is fair...
C) We'll take 22, 13 and an All-Star appearance if you can promise it.

KELSEY
A) You're calling it "reality" that Al won't make it this year? A bit strong there, maybe. B) We've already been over the "proven" and "ultra-talented" All-Star big men, but I'd argue that Jefferson proved that he was ultra-talented last year, more so than Brand, Boozer and others were in their third years. And he just got out of high school a couple years ago!
C) Terrific point about Ray Allen and KG being the only two players to make the West squad on sub .500 teams last year. Well done.

HALSTED
A) You were the only one to mention Big Al's injury concerns, saying it was the one thing that kept him from taking the next step and becoming an All-Star. I couldn't disagree more: last year he missed 11 games, and could have played in more had Boston been contending. More importantly, taking the next step is precisely what he did last year. His points jumped from 7.9 to 16.0, and his boards from 5.1 to 11.0.
B) Good work pointing out that he put up 20 points a game in March and 22 in April.
C) Also solid mention that the whole Western Conference being tougher on him being a non-issue last year. You obviously checked the season splits.

GROVER
A) Love your first stat: 19.8 points and 11.5 boards in 25 games after the All-Star break and increasing his scoring percentage each month. That is telling.
B) "All but impossible" is way too strong when talking about his potentially landing a spot.
C) I also like your explicit mention of him having a better chance if he plays center on first thought. But on second thought, Yao and Amare might be more entrenched than the five or six forwards on the squad? Also, you made a good point that he'll be seeing tougher opponents more often.