Kevin Pelton, SUPERSONICS.COM | Nov. 3, 2004
Yesterday, I
posted the results of my statistical projection of the 2004-05 season (read it now if you haven't already). Today, I'll go through each team to explain why they rated where they did, specifically in the case of teams where the numbers may depart from conventional wisdom. In addition to coming up with an expected record, the method I used also predicted how often they would come out atop the newly realigned divisions. I've included this information along with the projected record for each team.
Dampier is the Mavericks best center in years.
Layne Murdoch/NBAE/Getty
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Dallas Mavericks (49-33, 9.02%)
The assumption, which may or may not be fair, is that
Erick Dampier will take a huge step backwards this season in Dallas. It's fair to the extent that players who improve their field-goal percentage as much as Dampier did last year aren't usually able to repeat it because two-point shooting is the most inconsistent major statistic. I don't think it's fair to write off Dampier's performance to a "contract year" for two reasons. First - Dampier's contract wasn't up (he opted out of the final two years); under the theory, he could have underperformed another two seasons before playing hard. Second - Dampier made major improvement the year before when free agency wasn't an option. If Dampier plays well and the Mavericks have the quality center they've lacked since … James Donaldson? … Dallas is in good shape even with the loss of
Steve Nash.
Devin Harris rates as a quality player who, like most of his teammates, rarely turns the ball over. Seeing him named the starting point guard is no surprise, and Harris should eventually justify the decision to let Nash walk as a free agent.
Denver Nuggets (45-37, 10.9%)
Why don't the Nuggets take the step forward everyone else seems to expect? The biggest reason is that, as good as Kenyon Martin is, he can't be a huge upgrade over an already strong frontcourt with Marcus Camby and Nenę. Camby's unlikely to play 72 games as he did last year, which is where Martin becomes extremely valuable, but even then his value is largely in keeping Denver from backsliding. Shooting could be a huge problem for Denver, particularly after Voshon Lenard was likely lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon suffered last night against the Lakers. The Nuggets struggled in that game, shooting 34.1% from the field and 25.0% from downtown.
Golden State Warriors (32-50, 0.0%)
The Warriors could miss last season's surprise contributor, Brian Cardinal, who provided excellent contributions off the bench. Part of that will be made up for by a healthy Troy Murphy, but Cardinal and Dampier are still big losses that largely offset the improvement the Warriors youngsters should make.
Houston Rockets (47-35, 3.8%)
Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming are the only pair of teammates both rated as worth double-digit wins above replacement level, but the supporting cast around them still needs to be developed. The Rockets will miss Kelvin Cato more than you might think. While Juwan Howard is a better player than Cato overall, he duplicates Maurice Taylor's skills and the Rockets defense benefited from having Cato in the lineup as a second rebounder and shot-blocker alongside Yao. Comparable players also portend a big drop-off for 34-year-old Jim Jackson.
L.A. Clippers (41-41, 3.4%)
Far and away, this was the strangest result from the spreadsheet. Here are three reasons why it might be possible. First - Marko Jaric and Chris Kaman kept the Clippers from doing more a year ago, and both are unlikely to be as ineffective this season. Second - the Clippers were actually a pretty decent team at the end of February before limping to the finish line by losing 22 of their last 25 games. Third - Kerry Kittles for Quentin Richardson is probably a slight win if Kittles can get healthy. On the other hand … these are the Clippers we're talking about.
Who knew about Mihm? Us, that's who.
Lisa Blumenfeld/NBAE/Getty
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L.A. Lakers (41-41, 4.1%)
I had figured this would be a surprising result, but it looks like most prognosticators have the Lakers either at the bottom of the West playoff picture or out of it, which is where they rate here.
Kobe Bryant and
Lamar Odom provide a good one-two punch, but the Lakers have little at point guard or power forward.
Chris Mihm's awesome opening night (23 points, 12 rebounds) shouldn't be expected night in and night out, but Mihm averaged 17.4 points and 14.9 rebounds per 48 minutes last season and was a quietly solid addition by the Lakers. If Bryant is as unselfish as he was in the opener, the Lakers could easily make some noise.
Memphis (49-33, 12.4%)
Who did the Grizzlies lose to make everyone so pessimistic about them this season? Bo Outlaw? (Actually, cutting Outlaw did hurt Memphis' record, and I confess I don't understand keeping Ryan Humphrey over him.) The Grizzlies return their core virtually intact and add the underrated Brian Cardinal, a perfect Grizzlies player if ever there was one. Yes, Memphis struggled in the playoffs, but they were playing a very good San Antonio team. I think the Grizzlies will be just fine.
Minnesota (46-36, 15.5%)
Latrell Sprewell is projected to lose 6.7% of his performance this year, and the spreadsheet doesn't even know he's threatened to tank it unless he gets a contract extension. Sprewell is 34 and Sam Cassell will turn 35 in a couple of weeks, and that presents the biggest threat to the Timberwolves success this season. In all likelihood, the Timberwolves will win 50 games or more, but the spreadsheet has to factor in the chance that Cassell struggles with injuries and the Timberwolves struggle on the court. (Yes, Troy Hudson is a very good backup, but he's no Cassell and that would force Anthony Carter, found lacking by the Spurs a year ago, into the rotation.)
New Orleans (36-46, 0.0%)
Poor, poor Hornets. In the East, they'd be strong playoff contenders - and possibly division contenders, if they were in the Southeast or the Atlantic. In the West, they're in trouble. Starters David Wesley and George Lynch are aging, and the best choice as a replacement is a high schooler, J.R. Smith. David West and Chris Andersen give the Hornets one of the best backup frontcourts in the league, but that's not enough in the West.
Nash gives the Suns one of the league's most exciting lineups.
Barry Gossage/NBAE/Getty
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Phoenix (40-42, 2.9%)
Best-case scenario - everyone stays healthy, the centers do just enough to justify their minutes on the floor, and the Suns end up scaring a team in the first round of the playoffs like they did with San Antonio two years ago. If
Amaré Stoudemire can't stay healthy, however (he missed 27 games last year), there's not a lot up front. Based on his comparable players, Nash's performance should hold up surprisingly well.
Portland (38-44, 0.8%)
I was surprised that the Blazers rated this low, given how well they played at the end of last season, and the system may be substantially underrating Theo Ratliff. Based on similar players, look for Zach Randolph to continue developing this season. He averaged 20 and 10 last year, but is not a finished product.
Sacramento (51-31, 89.7%)
These aren't the dominant Kings of a few years back, but they should cruise to a division title unless the Lakers or the Suns really surprise. The big question mark, then, is in the playoffs, where Predrag Stojakovic has traditionally struggled. There's concern in Sacramento about the depth, but Geoff Petrie has done a typically excellent job of picking up unheralded contributors like Matt Barnes and Erik Daniels (who made the team after going undrafted this June). The Kings bench isn't quite the Bench Mob of a few years back, but it could surprise some doubters.
San Antonio (55-27, 74.8%)
The spreadsheet and conventional wisdom are in complete agreement: The Spurs are easily the class of the Western Conference, and anything but a championship would qualify as a disappointment. Brent Barry gives the Spurs three starters in the backcourt, while Gregg Popovich loves first-round pick Beno Udrih. The Spurs need to keep Radoslav Nesterovic healthy, as there isn't a lot of quality center size behind him, but injuries look like the only thing that can derail them.
Utah (51-31, 72.8%)
Let me sum up why I like the Jazz. Utah was nearly a playoff team last year (even if they did outperform their point differential) with Michael Ruffin and Tom Gugliotta at power forward. This year, they give those minutes to Carlos Boozer, Matt Harpring and Kris Humphries. Boozer's addition alone could add nearly 10 wins to the Jazz's bottom line; he's precisely the kind of efficient, smart player who will fit perfectly with Jerry Sloan. Mehmet Okur, given freedom to be what he is (a jump-shooting center who spreads the defense), should be solid, while Carlos Arroyo is on the rise and Andrei Kirilenko is quietly one of the league's most valuable players because of his incredible versatility. The Jazz are young, and they're going to be good for a very long time.
Check out SUPERSONICS.COM's analysis of the Eastern Conference.
