Ten Questions For the 2004-05 Season
Kevin Pelton, SUPERSONICS.COM | Oct. 20, 2004
With the benefit of time and hindsight, many of the 10 questions SUPERSONICS.COM posed about the Seattle SuperSonics a year ago as the season approached seem curiously naive. Would the Sonics get bench scoring? Yes, in fact as much as anyone in the league. Would either Ronald "Flip" Murray or Luke Ridnour step up? Try both.

Still, fools that we are, we'll try it again halfway through the 2004 preseason schedule.


Reggie Evans is just one of several fine rebounders the Sonics boast up front.
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Can the Sonics improve on the boards?

Sonics management has made no secret of the fact that they were disappointed by the team's rebounding last season, as the Sonics ranked 29th of 29 NBA teams in rebounds per game. In reality, the Sonics weren't quite that bad. In terms of team rebounding percentage - a more accurate metric because it takes into account the fact that the Sonics and their opponents combined to hit about 44.8% of their shots last year, way above the league average of 43.9%, meaning less rebounds for both teams - the Sonics were 27th. That's still not very good.

What you might not know is that the Sonics were actually a very respectable rebounding team two years ago, ranking 24th in the NBA in rebounds per game but a middle-of-the-pack 16th in rebound percentage. With two of the NBA's best per-minute rebounders on the roster in Reggie Evans and Danny Fortson, as well as Nick Collison, who averaged 10.0 rebounds per game as a senior at Kansas, the Sonics will almost certainly be much improved on the glass. Helping matters will be less use of the trap in halfcourt, meaning Sonics forwards and centers won't be pulled away from the basket as much. The results have been tangible thus far in preseason, with the Sonics posting a strong 52.2% rebounding percentage, good for seventh in the NBA through Monday's preseason action.

How will the Sonics respond to trapping and double-teaming less aggressively on defense?

After the Sonics allowed 97.8 points per game last season, Coach Nate McMillan has made the most dramatic changes to his defensive scheme since he took over the helm of the Sonics early in the 2000-01 season. The trapping style the Sonics have used in halfcourt since the George Karl era will be scaled back this season as the Sonics emphasize containing on defense. Too often in the past, opposing perimeter players came into a game expecting to have a big night against the Sonics because of the open looks they would get when the Sonics would double-team. This year, the Sonics aim to make other teams work for their looks, forcing shots with a hand in the face of the shooter. The question mark is whether the Sonics can contain individually on the perimeter. There will also be an adjustment period as players who have grown used to the trapping style relearn what to do on defense. In time, however, the change should prove a positive one for the Sonics.

What impact will the impending free agency of seven Sonics players have this season?

Beginning with Ray Allen, more than half of the Sonics roster could become free agents at season's end. Already, the situation has drawn numerous comparisons to the 2002-03 L.A. Clippers, who collapsed from 39 wins to 27 despite adding Andre Miller in an off-season trade because of the weight of selfishness from impending free agents. The comparison might not be apt, however. While the Clippers free agents were all young, many in their early 20s and looking for their first big NBA payday, the only Sonics that fit that description are Murray and Vladimir Radmanovic. The 29-year-old Allen is a professional, and NBA teams already know what he can do. The same is true of players like Antonio Daniels and Vitaly Potapenko (also both 29). A free agent market that more and more is eschewing high scorers in favor of unheralded team players like Brian Cardinal or defenders like Trenton Hassell will also help the Sonics cause. Whether a coming payday acts as motivation to work hard or be selfish depends on the player, and the Sonics group is more likely to follow the former path.


Luke Ridnour has started two of the three preseason games he's played this season.
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Is Luke Ridnour ready to start?

It's funny to hear some national columnists describe Ridnour's rookie campaign as a "disappointment". After Ridnour missed the entire summer and much of training camp because of an avulsion fraction of his pelvic bone and a severely pulled abdominal muscle, and with two veteran point guards already on the roster, Ridnour was expected to do a lot of watching as a rookie. Instead, he played over 1,100 minutes and averaged 10.0 points and 5.0 assists in his six starts. Now, with Brent Barry gone to San Antonio, Ridnour's role will increase; he's been the starting point guard throughout camp and has done nothing to lose that role. As a result, Ridnour could be poised for a breakout year. Food for thought: As a freshman at Oregon, Ridnour averaged 7.4 points and 3.8 assists and shot 33.9% from the field and 29.3% from downtown. In year two, after he settled in, those marks exploded to 15.5 points, 5.0 assists, 46.8% shooting and 44.1% from downtown.

How ready is Nick Collison?

Ridnour's fellow 2003 first-round pick did sit and watch last season, though not by choice. Twin shoulder surgeries sidelined Collison for the entire 2003-04 campaign, but he is healthy now and has participated in training camp without any restrictions. Expectations were high for Collison after he averaged 18.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game as a senior at Kansas and shot 56.2% during his Jayhawks career, and that's still the case. At times, Collison has looked a bit tentative, and it may take him a while to adjust to the speed of the NBA game a year and a half removed from the conclusion of his college career, but once that happens, Collison is the Sonics most well-rounded option at power forward. He continues to display a knack for finishing around the basket that should help him shoot a high percentage from the field and get to the free-throw line. The biggest concern right now is fouls; Collison has 16 in 101 preseason minutes.

What role will Danny Fortson play?

Already, Fortson has done his part to remake the image of the Sonics as a tougher team with his training-camp battles with Evans. As a result, "practice is a lot harder than the games," rookie Robert Swift said recently. Fortson is the NBA's best rebounding specialist, and so far he's picked up 12 boards in 38 minutes of preseason action. To win playing time at a crowded power forward position, however, Fortson will need to do more than rebound. Whether Fortson can repeat last year's 51.1% shooting or is nearer his 42.8% mark from 2001-02 in Golden State will go a long ways towards determining how much action Fortson sees. While his size helps him in the post and on the glass, it does make agile power forwards who can shoot from the perimeter a tough guard, and McMillan may be more apt to use Evans or Radmanovic in those situations.

Will Robert Swift get his chance this season?

The Sonics didn't draft high school center Swift in the first round this June for what he could bring to the team this season; instead, the Sonics are looking at Swift to give them a long-term option in the middle they previously lacked. With Jerome James and Potapenko amongst the group of free agents after this season, Swift's time in the rotation is likely to come in a year, but his solid performance in training camp and preseason means he could get some minutes this season. The combination of James, Potapenko and players like Fortson playing in the middle will probably keep Swift on the bench most of the time, but injuries could make this more than a redshirt season for the youngster.


Vitaly Potapenko was a key contributor for the Sonics the second half of last season.
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What can Vitaly Potapenko provide in the middle?

How about some love for Big V? Aside from his tan, Potapenko has been invisible in training-camp coverage on this site and elsewhere despite the fact that Sonics GM Rick Sund says Potapenko hasn't been in the kind of shape he's currently in since college. Potapenko did start 38 of the Sonics final 40 games last season, and was effective in that role, averaging 9.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game and shooting 50.3% from the field. Potapenko looked completely healthy for the first time in two seasons in Seattle after tearing his left ACL with Boston during the 2002 Playoffs. In great shape and now two full seasons removed from the injury, Potapenko could have his best season with the Sonics. He's off to a good start, averaging 8.7 points and shooting 11-for-15 from the field in three preseason games thus far.

Is there a surprise breakout lurking on the roster?

As the discussion of last year's 10 Questions demonstrates, the Sonics have had no shortage of pleasant surprises in years past. Training-camp invitees who have survived the cuts and made the Sonics final roster, including Art Long, Evans and, last year, Richie Frahm, have often provided more than expected. Any of the three players remaining in camp with the Sonics - guard Mateen Cleaves and swingmen Damien Wilkins and Galen Young - could provide that surprise this season, but Wilkins in particular looks to have, in draft parlance, tremendous upside potential should the Sonics be able to find room for him on the roster. With 11 players in the hunt for starting spots, however, the odds of any of the invitees cracking the rotation are long. Perhaps, then, this year's surprise, like Murray a year ago or Predrag Drobnjak either of his two seasons in Seattle, comes from a player who plays a larger role than anticipated. Maybe that's another foreigner, Turkish guard Ibrahim Kutluay, who has taken advantage of injuries to average 8.8 points over his first four preseason games. While the Sonics brought Kutluay in to provide depth, that was always with the possibility that he could earn more minutes in camp, and Kutluay may have done so.

Can the Sonics reclaim KeyArena?

At 16-25, the Sonics were a good road team last season. In fact, the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks had an identical 16-25 road record; three playoff teams had worse road marks. While the Mavericks were 36-5 at home, however, the Sonics were barely above .500 at KeyArena. In part, that stems from bad luck. The Sonics were 2-6 in games decided by five points or less at home, 6-6 in the road. Given average luck, the Sonics +1.7 point differential in home games would translate to a 23-18 record at KeyArena. Still, the Sonics can do better, and that starts with the fans making the Key a tough place to play.