The Houston Rockets are facing a math problem that can't easily be solved. There are 10 playoff-caliber teams in the Western Conference, but only eight spots for them. As we near the midpoint of the season, the Rockets sit last amongst those 10 teams. Though two games above .500 at 21-19, Houston is three games back of the eighth and final seed in the ultra-competitive West. Ordinarily, a team slightly above .500 would have plenty of time to come together and find their way over the second half of the season. The Rockets do not have that luxury.
Certainly, missing the postseason would be a stunner for a Houston team expected to contend with Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio for the Western Conference title. At 52-30, the Rockets had the NBA's fifth-best regular-season record a year ago, but that went for naught when the Utah Jazz won Game 7 of the teams' first-round series at the Toyota Center. That was the last game for Jeff Van Gundy as Houston's head coach; he and the Rockets parted ways at season's end, with
Rick Adelman chosen as his replacement.
The expectation in Houston was, with the offensive-minded Adelman replacing defense-first Van Gundy, the Rockets would improve upon an offense that was only average despite stars
Tracy McGrady and
Yao Ming. In addition, Houston improved its depth, swapping forward
Juwan Howard to Minnesota for
Mike James and replacing Howard with international star
Luis Scola. The Rockets brought back
Bonzi Wells, a non-factor under Van Gundy who had played some of his best basketball for Adelman in Sacramento in 2005-06, and signed one-time star
Steve Francis as a free agent.
So far, those changes have yet to pay off in an improved offense. In fact, the Rockets are slightly worse; their
Offensive Rating has dropped from 14th in the NBA to 17th. At the same time, their defense has remained amongst the NBA's elite. Houston's
Defensive Rating leads a pack of similarly-rated teams vying to rank second in the NBA behind the Boston Celtics.
Talk around the Rockets lately has centered on the team's play without McGrady, who missed 11 games after injuring his left knee in late December. Houston, 14-15 at the time of McGrady's injury, went 7-4 without him, spurring talk the Rockets are better without him. The schedule was relatively favorable; four of the seven wins came against teams with 13 wins or fewer on the season. While the commonly-cited explanation is that the team moves the ball better without McGrady, any improvement has come at the defensive end of the court - though the team's offense has been as good with McGrady on the bench over the course of the season as with him on the floor.
In part, Houston's off-season moves were designed to improve McGrady's efficiency. His
True Shooting Percentage, which peaked at 56.4% during his Orlando days, was down to 49.4% two years ago and 51.5% last year. This year, it's at 51.2%, well below the league average of 53.6%.
It hasn't helped that the off-season Rockets acquisitions have not panned out as well as the team hoped. James was unable to win the starting point-guard role from incumbent
Rafer Alston, has shot the ball poorly (35.2% from the field) and has been replaced as Alston's backup. Not technically an addition, Wells has played a much larger role but also is not shooting the ball well, hitting just 41.7% from the field and 62.7% from the free-throw line. Francis has barely played and is sidelined right now. Scola has been the most effective of the group, averaging 16.0 points and 10.2 points per 40 minutes, but his minutes have been up and down.
Unexpectedly, it's been Houston's draft picks who have picked up some of the slack. First-round pick
Aaron Brooks, a product of Seattle's Franklin High School by way of the University of Oregon, has replaced James in the rotation. Brooks has averaged 6.8 points and 2.3 assists in January, including a 22-point outburst in a Jan. 5 win over New York. Purdue forward
Carl Landry, taken in the second round, was no sure thing to even make the Rockets during training camp, but he has gotten minutes up front over the past week-plus, averaging 7.0 points and 5.3 rebounds per game during January.
McGrady returned alongside the revamped rotation Saturday as the Rockets hosted San Antonio. He was rusty, scoring nine points on 4-of-12 shooting in 27 minutes off the bench, but Yao had 21 points and 14 boards and Houston controlled the glass and committed just seven turnovers. The result was an 83-81 win over the Spurs, bringing the Rockets to a solid 6-3 in the month of January. Still, Houston is on the outside of the playoffs looking in, and that means urgency is high as the team tries to emerge from one of the most crowded playoff races in NBA history.
The Seattle SuperSonics wrap up their four-game road trip and a stretch of eight of their last 10 games on the road with today's game in Houston. The Sonics would love to head into a seven-game homestand at KeyArena with the momentum of a victory. With
Delonte West returning to the lineup Saturday in Dallas, the Sonics are as healthy as they have been at any point this season, giving Head Coach
P.J. Carlesimo plenty of options but also some difficult decisions on playing time.
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The highlight of All-Star center Yao's season has been - knock on wood - health. Yao has played all 40 games this season after missing a combined 59 the last two years. Yao has also been able to pick up his minutes slightly and is averaging 22.1 points and career-best marks of 10.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. At 7-6, Yao is a matchup problem for virtually every center in the league, but Sonics veteran Kurt Thomas can at least rely on his experience to try to keep Yao from establishing the deep position that makes him unstoppable. With Thomas in Phoenix last year, Yao went off for 31 points on 10-of-19 shooting (11-of-11 from the free-throw line) in his lone matchup against the Sonics.
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LAST TIME
The short-handed Sonics could not keep pace with Houston April 9, falling 95-90 at KeyArena. Already playing without starting guards
Luke Ridnour and
Ray Allen, the Sonics saw
Earl Watson sprain his left ankle - the same ankle that Ridnour sprained at the Key the previous Friday - late in the first quarter, leaving only
Mike Wilks at point guard. Despite the injuries and an off night from
Rashard Lewis, who was in early foul trouble and shot 6-for-24 from the field, the Sonics were as close as five with 4:18 left before Houston put the game away.
The Rockets were led, as usual, by superstars Yao and McGrady. McGrady owned the first half, scoring 21 of his 27 points, and Yao took center stage after halftime, scoring 15 points in the third quarter and finishing with a game-high 31 points.
Nick Collison (12 points, 13 boards) recorded a double-double, while Wilks' 11 points and eight assists were both season highs.
Kia Surprising Stat
INJURIES
Sonics - Guard
Delonte West (plantar fasciitis, right foot) is a game-time decision. Center
Robert Swift (tendinitis and contusion, right knee) are out.
Houston - Guard
Steve Francis (bilateral quadriceps tendinitis) is out.
For more analysis before tonight's game, listen to the Sonics Pregame Show starting at 11:00 on KTTH 770 AM.