A month into the 2007-08 season, the Indiana Pacers have yet to establish their level of play. While they advanced to the second round of the 2005 Playoffs, the Pacers have never entirely shaken off the effects of the fight at The Palace of Auburn Hills that left forward 
Ron Artest suspended for the remainder of the 2004-05 season. Artest is long gone, dealt midway through the 2005-06 season, and Indiana made a major move midway through last season as well, sending out guard Stephen Jackson and forward Al Harrington and getting back guard Mike Dunleavy and forward Troy Murphy from Golden State. The identity makeover culminated in the Pacers replacing Rick Carlisle on the sidelines with former Boston and Philadelphia head man Jim O'Brien.
So how good are the Pacers? There are conflicting signals. Indiana went 6-2 in the preseason, which has historically been a good indicator for a team coming off of a lottery season. The Pacers then started the year 3-0, albeit against a weak schedule, and things looked rosy. However, Indiana then followed it up with a six-game losing streak. And now, the Pacers have won four of their last five games, including the first two on a West Coast swing that extends through the weekend.
The recent hot streak has coincided with the absence of All-Star center Jermaine O'Neal, who has missed the last five games (and six overall this season, in which the Pacers are 5-1) due to swelling in his left knee, which underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove loose cartilage over the summer. The inevitable result was a story in the Indianapolis Star today wondering if the Pacers play better without O'Neal, who is due to return to the lineup as soon as tonight.
"We've made strides as a team, but those strides will be even greater when Jermaine gets back," O'Brien told the Star. "We run the same offense with or without him. We run the same defense with or without him."
O'Brien's comments are validated by plus-minus data. Over the course of the season, the Pacers have been better without O'Neal. However, looking strictly at the games O'Neal has played, the team has been better with him on the floor. That seems to indicate that the improved performance over the last five games has not come because O'Neal has been out, but despite his absence.
What is clear is that the Pacers have developed a more balanced offense no longer as dependent on O'Neal's scoring in the paint. An Indiana offense that ranked dead last in the NBA on a per-possession basis last season has improved all the way to 18th in Offensive Rating this season. The scoring surge has been keyed by starting wings Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy. Granger, a potential lottery pick who fell all the way to the 17th pick held by the Pacers in 2005, has seen his development culminate in emerging the team's leading scorer this season at 18.4 points per game. Granger has three-point range, can attack the basket off the dribble and also has a post-up game.
Dunleavy has been the Pacers player who has benefited the most from O'Brien's commitment to up-tempo basketball and his love of the three-pointer. Dunleavy is hitting a career-best 39.3% from beyond the arc and shooting 48.0% from the field overall. His 16.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per game are both also career highs.
While the offense has improved from last season, the Pacers have not been as stingy on defense after ranking just outside the NBA's top 10 defenses a year ago. That's where the absence of a healthy O'Neal has hurt Indiana. O'Neal has never been given proper credit for being one of the league's better shot-blocking presences inside; his 2.6 blocks per game ranked third in the NBA last season. Combine a healthy O'Neal with O'Brien's offense and the Pacers will become a likely playoff team in the Eastern Conference.
The Sonics should welcome a matchup against an Indiana team that is playing at the league's third-fastest pace under O'Brien. The Sonics rank fourth, but Head Coach P.J. Carlesimo would like his team to push the ball more than it has lately, as the Sonics pace has slowed slightly. "We're just not pushing the ball as much as we did, at times - as much as we would like to," Carlesimo said yesterday. Tonight's game should provide that opportunity.
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After matching up with versatile forward Rashard Lewis on Wednesday,  Chris Wilcox will spend much of his time defending on the perimeter again tonight. While Troy Murphy is not the athlete that Lewis is, his forte is three-point shooting and offering spacing to the Pacers offense. Murphy has hit 18 three-pointers this season at a 38.3% clip, making him one of five Indiana players averaging at least one three a game. Wilcox has a major quickness advantage in the post when the Sonics have the ball.
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LAST TIME
To end their franchise-record 15-game road losing streak on Feb. 7, the Sonics turned to a player who wasn't yet on the roster when they had last won away from Seattle. D-League call-up Andre Brown played the entire fourth quarter and came up with scores with fouls on consecutive possessions as the Sonics won in Indiana, 103-102. In earning their second last-second victory over the Pacers this season, the Sonics had to come back from a 99-92 deficit with 3:37 left. Indiana was held without a field goal and to just one point over a stretch of nearly three minutes before Jamaal Tinsley answered Brown's three-point play with a bucket to put Indiana up 102-101 with 46 seconds left. Ray Allen missed on the other end, but Brown scored the putback. Though he missed the free throw, the Sonics went ahead. They would still have to hold the Pacers scoreless, and Indiana got four looks at the basket. All missed, giving the Sonics their first road win since Nov. 23.
It was Allen who put the Sonics in position to win with his effort all night long. He scored 33 points on 10-for-22 shooting and handed out nine assists. Beyond Brown, the bench contributed heavily; reserves 
Earl Watson and 
Damien Wilkins joined Brown on the court down the stretch. Watson, who moved back to the bench after a month in the starting lineup, had 10 points and five assists while Wilkins also scored 10 points. The Pacers, playing without O'Neal, shot just 39.6% from the field but benefited from 26 offensive rebounds.
Kia Surprising Stat
INJURIES
Sonics - Center 
Johan Petro (strained lower back) is probable. Center 
Robert Swift (tendinitis and contusion, right knee) is day-to-day. Guard 
Luke Ridnour (left quad tear) and center 
Nick Collison (possible nasal fracture) are out.
Indiana - Center Jermaine O'Neal (swelling, left knee) is day-to-day. Forward Ike Diogu (torn left calf muscle) is out.
For more analysis before tonight's game, listen to the Sonics Pregame Show starting at 7:00 on KTTH 770 AM
