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NBA Analysis Archive 2006-07 Every Play Counts All-Defensive Teams Get Sonics News Delivered to You!

To try to account for this, I've compared this year's playoff squads to the most similar playoff teams of the last 11 years (from the 1996 through 2006 postseasons) based on their Offensive and Defensive Ratings and pace of play (half weighted), all compared to league average.

Each of the past teams has had their playoff performance rated, getting a point for each playoff win, losing a point for each loss and getting three points for making the playoffs and four points for winning a series. (Technical note: Best-of-seven first-round series since 2003 were adjusted down for apples-to-apples comparison with pre-2003 best-of-five series.)

For each current team, I've listed the average playoff score of the 10 most comparable teams from the past, as well as the number of those 10 teams who advanced to the NBA Finals and won the Championship. Lastly, I've listed out each team's best comparison from the last 11 years. Oh, and if you're interested, here's what a similar study showed last April.

1. Dallas Mavericks
Average score: 11.1
Finals/Win: 1/0
Best comp: 2000 Portland Trail Blazers

Last year, I remarked that teams similar to the Detroit Pistons had underachieved in the postseason. Lo and behold, the Pistons were upset in the Eastern Conference Finals. Well, who comes up as the second most similar team to this year's Mavericks? That's right, the 2006 Pistons. Five of the six most similar teams and six of the top nine lost in the conference finals; the only similar team to win the conference finals was ... last year's Mavericks.

2. Phoenix Suns
Average score: 9.2
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 1998 Los Angeles Lakers

Last year, a weaker Suns squad scored pretty well by my method. However, that group included teams going all the way back to 1978. This year, I only went back to 1996. That hurts the Suns; as the stereotype would suggest, fast-paced, high-scoring teams just haven't had a lot of playoff success in the last decade.

3. San Antonio Spurs
Average score: 15.8
Finals/Win: 4/4
Best comp: 2006 San Antonio Spurs

There were a total of seven comparable teams to this year's playoff group that won championships; four of the seven come from this year's Spurs squad. That shouldn't be a surprise, because the Spurs come up highly similar to themselves. Other San Antonio teams take up five of the top six spots, interrupted only by the 1998 Chicago Bulls. The Spurs come out as the clear postseason favorites by this method.

4. Utah Jazz
Average score: 2.5
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 1999 Houston Rockets

Only three of the 10 most comparable teams to the Jazz made it out of the first round. None advanced any further. The 2005 Sonics don't appear on that list or anywhere close, because they were much better on offense and much worse on defense, but I subjectively love the comparison.

5. Houston Rockets
Average score: 13.1
Finals/Win: 3/2
Best comp: 1997 Miami Heat

The lockdown defense played by the Rockets (who finished just a hair behind San Antonio for the league's best Defensive Rating) has historically been very successful in the postseason. There's a lot of overlap between Houston's top 10 and the Spurs comparable teams. If the Rockets can get by a tough matchup against Utah, their semifinal series with Dallas could be very interesting.

6. Denver Nuggets
Average score: 1.1
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 2000 Sacramento Kings

Despite the addition of Allen Iverson, three of the most similar playoff teams to this year's Nuggets are the 2004, 2005 and 2006 Nuggets. All three lost 4-1. Denver's been hot lately, but April success hasn't historically translated into playoff wins.

7. Los Angeles Lakers
Average score: 1.2
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 1996 Phoenix Suns

Kobe Bryant could make things interesting, but history is certainly not on the side of the Lakers.

8. Golden State Warriors
Average score: 1.3
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 1999 Sacramento Kings

See Denver Nuggets. The lists of similar teams are almost identical.

1. Detroit Pistons
Average score: 5.5
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 1999 Miami Heat

Surprisingly, four of the five most similar teams to this year's Pistons did not make it out of the first round. There are more successful squads, including last year's Detroit team, lower in the top 10. However, none of them even made it to the NBA Finals.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers
Average score: 5.0
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 2004 New Jersey Nets

Before going through this process, I had no idea how bad the Cavaliers had been on offense this season. They finished 19th in the NBA in Offensive Rating, behind Memphis and New Jersey, amongst others. Cleveland's defense is championship-caliber, but, barring a LeBron James explosion, their offense is not.

3. Toronto Raptors
Average score: 3.3
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 2003 Philadelphia 76ers

Similar teams to the Raptors have been able to win their opening-round matchup (four of 10), but have not advanced any further than that. That seems about right, but in a wide-open Eastern Conference, Toronto may be able to do more damage.

4. Miami Heat
Average score: 2.7
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 2004 Miami Heat

Based on the entire season, the Heat is similar to a past incarnation - but the 2004 squad, led by then-rookie Dwyane Wade and Lamar Odom. Over the second half of the season, the Heat was much improved, but still nowhere near last year's level. I wouldn't rule out Miami taking it to the next level, but this still seems like a flawed team.

5. Chicago Bulls
Average score: 9.9
Finals/Win: 3/1
Best comp: 1997 New York Knicks

It's not really a surprise that Chicago would rate as the top pick in the East using a method largely based on point differential; the Bulls, at +5.0, topped the Eastern Conference. However, they weren't way ahead of Detroit (+4.2) or even Cleveland (+3.8), yet similar teams to the Bulls have had a great deal of playoff success. Included in the group is one champion, the 2004 Pistons.

6. New Jersey Nets
Average score: 2.1
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 2002 Utah Jazz

Amongst their top 10: More teams swept out of the first round (three) than who won their series.

7. Washington Wizards
Average score: 1.3
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 1998 Houston Rockets

While defense alone may not win championships, a lack of defense will lose them. Washington is far and away the worst defensive team in the postseason, which did not bode well for the Wizards even if Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler were healthy.

8. Orlando Magic
Average score: 2.2
Finals/Win: 0/0
Best comp: 2002 Toronto Raptors

The Magic's formula has been a little more successful in the past than the other 6-8 seeds in each conference, but not enough so to suggest they'll knock off Detroit.