Seattle SuperSonics consultant Dean Oliver analyzes teams using his "Four Factors of Basketball Success," as SUPERSONICS.COM
discussed earlier this year. To help shed some light on the Sonics playoff matchup with the Sacramento Kings, here's a look at how the teams match up in the Four Factors.
Sonics Offense vs. Sacramento Defense
Sonics |
FACTOR |
Kings |
.495
5 |
eFG%
Rank |
.493
22 |
12.9
9 |
TO%
Rank |
13.3
19 |
.324
2 |
OR%/DR%
Rank |
.690
28 |
.259
11 |
FTM/FGA
Rank |
.214
5 |
|
You don't need fancy statistics to know the Sonics offense has the advantage on the Sacramento defense (though they don't hurt either). In particular, the Sonics should be able to shoot the ball accurately and hold a huge advantage on the glass. The Kings did a good job of limiting the Sonics offensive rebounds in the middle two matchups, when they combined for 20 offensive boards, but Seattle had 18 in the first game and 16 in the last.
Illustrating the problem with using season-long numbers for a Kings team that has made major in-season trades - and will make major changes with Bobby Jackson back in the lineup and Brad Miller set to join him at some point during the series - Sacramento has been a better rebounding team since trading Chris Webber to Philadelphia and adding big men Brian Skinner and Kenny Thomas.
An interesting area to keep an eye on is whether the Sonics can get to the free-throw line. They've done so pretty well this season (though not as successfully in the second half because 
Danny Fortson has played a smaller role), but the Kings don't send opponents to the free-throw line regularly. How playoff-style officiating affects the two teams remains to be seen.
Sacramento Offense vs. Sonics Defense
Kings |
FACTOR |
Sonics |
.496
4 |
eFG%
Rank |
.496
23 |
12.0
1 |
TO%
Rank |
12.8
24 |
.288
15 |
DR%/OR%
Rank |
.713
16 |
.226
23 |
FTM/FGA
Rank |
.249
18 |
|
In many senses, this is a mirror image of the matchup on the other side of the court. Sacramento is not as good offensively as in recent years, but the Kings remain in the NBA's top five in Offensive Rating. Like the Sonics, Sacramento is an outstanding shooting team, ranking fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage (37.4%; the Sonics were fifth at 36.5%).
The Kings other big advantage is in terms of taking care of the basketball. Despite all the passing required in Sacramento's Princeton-style offense, the Kings turned the ball over less per possession than any other team in the league. Meanwhile, the Sonics struggled to force turnovers during the second half of the season and finished in the NBA's bottom 10 in that regard. Sacramento combined for only 29 turnovers in the last three games in the season series with the Sonics.
There are a pair of swing areas that are strengths for neither team. As great as they are on the offensive glass, the Sonics are only average when it comes to defensive rebounding, and Sacramento is right near league average on the offensive glass as well. Meanwhile, the Kings perimeter-based offense doesn't produce a lot of free throws, but the Sonics have been known to use their fouls in the paint. How these two categories play out could go a long way towards determining the outcome of the series.
