Kevin Pelton, SUPERSONICS.COM | Jan. 12, 2005
Back-to-back wins over Sacramento and New York have doubled the New Orleans Hornets win total in the last week and stifled talk that the Hornets could threaten the 9-73 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers record for NBA futility. At 4-29, the Hornets would still need a miracle to even challenge for a playoff spot, but this is clearly too talented a team to inspire comparisons to that Sixers team or the worst team of recent memory, the 11-71 Dallas Mavericks of 1992-93 (one of whose wins, it should be noted, came at the Coliseum against a 55-27 Sonics team, a game I still remember attending).
When healthy, Baron Davis alone is good enough to push the Hornets past the magical 10-win mark, and he's averaging 21.0 points and 9.0 assists during January, though his shooting percentages have been dismal. Trading Davis, as has been rumored, would make the eight-win discussion more realistic, but it's tough to see how such a move would help the early rebuilding process in New Orleans unless he forced such a move. At 25, Davis has his best years in front of him if the Hornets can keep him healthy, and reducing Davis' minutes (he's playing 38 a game right now), while difficult to swallow now, would be a wise investment in the team's future.
A healthy Davis should push New Orleans to double-digit wins.
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Keeping Davis happy might require the Hornets to speed up the rebuilding process, but that might not be as difficult as New Orleans record would indicate. Some core pieces are in place for the Hornets to move quickly back into contention for a playoff berth in the Western Conference if New Orleans makes the right moves.
The recent Denver Nuggets would be a good model for the Hornets to emulate. Like the 2002-03 Nuggets, the Hornets have much of their current talent besides Davis in the frontcourt, where Jamaal Magloire (who will be sidelined for at least another month with a dislocated finger) was an All-Star just a year ago, David West showed promise as a rookie, P.J. Brown is a wizened veteran (barring a trade) and Chris Andersen an active defender off the bench.
That leaves the Hornets needing primarily to focus on the two easiest positions at which to find talent, shooting guard and small forward. In all likelihood, New Orleans will be picking in the top five of this year's draft, and an obvious target would be Bremerton native Marvin Williams, averaging 10.1 points and 6.5 rebounds off the bench for the North Carolina Tar Heels. NBADraft.net has the 6-9, 230 small forward going with the first overall pick in its most recent mock draft.
Then there's rookie J.R. Smith, the 18th pick of this year's draft out of St. Benedict's Prep (N.J.), who has been seeing more action of late. That's good news, as the Hornets both need to get Smith necessary experience and figure out how much he can contribute next season. Calling Smith inconsistent at this early stage of his career would be an understatement; he's delivered a pair of 23-point outings but has scored double-figures only one other time. Combined, he has 81 points in his other 25 games. The co-MVP of both the McDonald's High School All-America Game and the EA Sports Roundball Classic, Smith has the combination of athleticism and shooting ability needed to lock up the shooting guard position in New Orleans for years to come.
The biggest New Orleans weakness at this point is the bench, where cast-offs like Dan Dickau, Matt Freije and Bostjan Nachbar are seeing heavy action in addition to Andersen (which is good; the Hornets can look for long-term keepers out of this group). That will improve as the Hornets get healthier over the course of this season, but the Hornets still need to add a lot of talent to the bench. Here, the Nuggets can be a useful model; Andre Miller was the only starter they signed in free agency two seasons ago. Equally important were the additions of Earl Boykins and Jon Barry to shore up the bench. Players of that caliber are always available in free agency for the mid-level exception (or a portion of it), so the Hornets need to shop wisely.
The only two players I'd really be looking to trade are Brown and forward Rodney Rogers. Brown is a great player to have on a team and still a quality starter, but his deal only made sense for a competing Hornets team, not a rebuilding one. Shedding Brown's lengthy deal and picking up some talent in return would be ideal, though keeping him around isn't a bad thing. As for Rogers, he might have some value to a contender looking for reserve scoring punch (Detroit?) and has no long-term value to the Hornets.
Suns Still Rolling
Another night, another blowout for the Phoenix Suns. After dispatching Indiana 124-89 on Sunday, the Suns crushed the East-leading Heat 122-107 last night in Phoenix. At 31-4, the Suns are on pace for 73 wins, and we might have to start seriously discussing their chances of winning 70. At the same point in their 72-win season, the 1995-96 Bulls were only a game better at 32-3.
Steve Nash sliced and diced the Heat for 16 assists Tuesday.
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At the same time, an injury to the Suns starters could still derail all that talk, and they've yet to miss a game this season.
What remains interesting about the Suns is how they're doing it. While Phoenix is the league's number one offensive team in terms of points per 100 possessions (113.4), ahead of the Sonics (108.7), they still rank ninth in defense. The Suns best attribute on defense is that they never let opposing teams get to the free-throw line, which not only keeps their starting five out of foul trouble but keeps them from giving up easy points. Phoenix's opponents have attempted a free throw every 4.6 field goals; nobody else is better than four field goals per free throw.
The most dramatic example yet of the Suns no-fouling approach came yesterday in their win over the Heat. My thinking was that the Suns couldn't afford to play Amaré Stoudemire on Shaquille O'Neal because of foul trouble, but it appears that where most teams - the Sonics definitely included - just foul O'Neal when he gets deep post position, given his poor free-throw shooting, the Suns just let him score. O'Neal made 80% of his shots (16-for-20) but got just six free-throw attempts. He scored 34 points, but Stoudemire torched him for 34 at the other end and Phoenix came out ahead.
That kind of thinking is arguably more revolutionary than anything Phoenix is doing on the offensive end of the court.
The claim teams like Phoenix have struggled in the playoffs is something of a misnomer - there's never really been a team like the Suns. One of my new toys is a team similarity system that uses Sonics consultant Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. The most similar team to this year's Suns (through last Thursday) was the 1980-81 L.A. Lakers, who went 54-28 despite an injury to second-year point guard Magic Johnson. (Those Lakers, to hurt my argument, were a playoff disappointment, getting upset in the first round by the 40-42 Houston Rockets. The Rockets would also upset 52-30 San Antonio en route to the NBA Finals.) The similarity between those teams, however, was only 92.1 as measured out of 100. Most teams have at least one other team with a similarity of 97 or better.
Christie-Mobley Trade
Two days after the Orlando Magic's trade of Cuttino Mobley to Sacramento with Michael Bradley for Doug Christie caught the NBA off guard, I'm still not sure what to think about the move.
Mobley is fourth in the NBA in three-point shooting at 46.4%.
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The attitude in both locker rooms seems to be negative. "We're going to find out what he meant to this team," Kings forward
Peja Stojakovic told the
Sacramento Bee, while Orlando guard
Steve Francis - who has teamed with Mobley in the backcourt throughout his six-year career - was even more outspoken.
"I can't put it into words," Francis told reporters. "Playing with a guy, living with a guy, just knowing that every day when I wake up that's something I can count on, that I'm going to be in practice or in a game with Cuttino.
"Him not being here is going to be tough for me. I don't know what I'm going to wake up for."
It's not difficult to see Magic GM John Weisbrod's decision-making. The Francis-Mobley backcourt has presented defensive difficulties from the start, and was also somewhat deficient in terms of ballhandling (an issue somewhat relieved in Orlando by the presence of playmaking small forward Grant Hill).
"We felt that Doug was a perfect fit for the chemistry of our team right now," Weisbrod said in a statement. "He’s a tremendous passer and defender, he’s accustomed to playing in an up-tempo offense and he brings valuable playoff experience. Cuttino is a very difficult piece to give up – one of my favorite people – but we needed to use our depth at shooting guard to fill the areas in which we’re deficient."
In Christie, the Magic gets a four-time All-Defense pick. However, there was always a school of thought that Christie was overrated as a defender because of his steals and because he did a good job in high-profile matchups with Kobe Bryant, and at age 34, Christie appears to have lost a step defensively. 82games.com rates the performance of opposing shooting guards against Christie as about average this season.
Additionally, one of the Magic's biggest advantages was being able to put out an unguardable perimeter trio of Francis, Mobley and Hill that allowed Mobley a favorable matchup against the opposition's third-best perimeter defender. It was with that perimeter punch that the Magic beat the Sonics 105-87 last week in Orlando.
This trade makes the Magic, who rank ninth in per-possession offense (103.9 points per 100 possessions) and 19th in defense (103.0), a more balanced team, but I'm split on whether it makes them a better one.
As for Sacramento, the writing was beginning to appear on the wall with Christie. Players with his skill set - in particular, a reliance on quickness - don't tend to age particularly well, though Christie's passing and versatility are marks in his favor. Christie's shooting percentage had plummeted from 46.1% to 40.7%, while his 7.3 points per game were his lowest scoring average in a decade.
"I think it was a great opportunity to get a player like Cuttino who can really score and break people down defensively," Sacramento President of Basketball Operations Geoff Petrie said in a statement. "We just thought it was an opportunity going forward to really get better. In Doug we’re giving up a very proven performer, who we’ve all had a great relationship with here. He’s been part of some of the most exciting times this franchise has had."
If the Kings can re-sign Mobley, who has a player option at year's end, he is likely to be better going forward, as Petrie says, than Christie. On the other hand, dealing the team's best perimeter defender puts a lot of pressure on inexperienced players including Matt Barnes, Maurice Evans and rookie Kevin Martin to play good defense off the bench. The trade also leaves newly-claimed Eddie House as the only point guard option behind Mike Bibby, which could be problematic if the Kings face injuries.
While I'm not sure who won this trade from a basketball perspective, the Magic win in terms of publicity. Last week, the Bee reported that Christie and his wife were negotiating with VH1 to produce a reality series about their ... unorthodox relationship.
What's fascinating about the story is this: According to Jackie Christie, as quoted by the Bee, the series was set to start filming yesterday - a day after the trade. Coincidence or consipracy?
