Sonics (30-12) vs. San Antonio (36-10)
Monday, January 31, 7:00 p.m.
KeyArena TV: Fox Sports Net Northwest Radio: KJR AM 950 Promotion: Dodge Golf Umbrella (first 12,000 fans) Buy Tickets: Click Here
Kevin Pelton, SUPERSONICS.COM
The San Antonio Spurs opened the 2004-05 season as the favorites to reclaim the NBA title they've held twice in the last six seasons, and nothing that's occurred during the first half of the season has done anything to change that perception. Metronomic in their consistency, the Spurs hold the NBA's best record at 36-10 and have lost just once all season at the SBC Center, where the road to the NBA title will likely run through.
Two-time MVP Tim Duncan, the heart and soul of this Spurs ballclub, is making a case not only for a third MVP trophy but as the most underrated defensive player in NBA history. Duncan anchors a Spurs defense that has finished no lower than third in the NBA in Defensive Rating during his career (oddly, that third place came in 2002-03, one of the Spurs two championship runs), and is again putting up a defensive performance for the ages this season. If the season ended today, the Spurs would be the second-best defensive team since 1973-74 in terms of points allowed per 100 possession - trailing only last year's edition (Click here for more on the top defenses of all time). Amongst those with human arms, Duncan's 2.78 blocks per game lead the league. Yet Duncan finished seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting last year, behind teammate Bruce Bowen (a fine defender in his own right, but not the primary reason for the Spurs defensive success) amongst others.
The scary thing about the Spurs is that they have traditionally been a slow-starting team in the Duncan era. Despite all the success they've had in the last decade-plus, this year's was the best start in franchise history. Last year, the Spurs were 26-15 in their first 41 games and finished the year a torrid 31-10. With a similar improvement this year, they'd be looking at a 37-4 second half and 69 wins. Already, the Spurs have lost once since the halfway mark, falling at Portland a week ago in the second game of a back-to-back and the finale of a three-game road trip. That was the first game the Spurs played without starting center Radoslav Nesterovic, who is on the injured list with a sprained ankle. Without Nesterovic, the Spurs don't regularly throw out a pair of 7-footers and Duncan has less opportunity to roam and help weakside.
If the Spurs were just as good defensively last year (and even a little better), what explains their improvement this year? Naturally, it's offense. With Tony Parker slumping and his backups inconsistent, San Antonio was right around league average in scoring on a per-possession basis in 2003-04. That's changed this year, as the Spurs rank sixth in the NBA in Offensive Rating. The additions of backup guards Beno Udrih through the draft and former Sonics starter Brent Barry in free agency have played a key role, but more important has been the development of starting two guard Emanuel Ginobili into an All-Star-caliber player. Ginobili is shooting a cool 48.6% from the field and 38.9% from three-point range while boosting his scoring average by nearly three points over last year.
You know that one loss at the SBC Center mentioned earlier? It was the Seattle SuperSonics who hung that on the Spurs, a 102-96 shocker in early December. The Sonics also beat San Antonio in the other KeyArena matchup this season on Nov. 5 in the season's third game. That makes them one of only two teams to beat the Spurs twice, and has given San Antonio plenty of incentive to win tonight's game and avoid having the Sonics win the season series for the first time in the Duncan era. The interesting matchup between these two teams is strength vs. strength - the Sonics second-rated offense and San Antonio's top-rated defense. So far, that battle has been clearly won by the Sonics, who have averaged 118.2 points per 100 possessions in the two games - substantially better than their already-great overall performance. Needless to say, that is not the expected result against the Spurs.
The Sonics will be hard-pressed to repeat those results tonight, however, as they play without star guard Ray Allen, who is suffering from a viral infection. Allen is one of five Sonics players who had played in every game this season, and three who had started all 42 and averaged 26.5 points and rang up nine three-pointers in the first two games against the Spurs. Coach Nate McMillan is also out this evening after suffering personal tragedy when his mother passed away yesterday evening. McMillan has returned to his native North Carolina and will miss this game and tomorrow's battle in Sacramento. Associate Head Coach Dwane Casey will assume the reins for those two games. Casey is 1-1 replacing McMillan, losing earlier this month in L.A. to the Clippers.
G U A R D S
Parker made headlines earlier this month when the San Antonio Express-News reported the rumor that he is dating Desperate Housewives star Eva Longoria. While his on-court exploits probably can't match that (whose can?), Parker is having a solid fourth season after signing a long-term extension just before the start of the season. His 15.6 points and 6.2 assists per game are career highs, and Parker is shooting a fine 48.9% from the field. Outside shooting remains a weakness - Parker has hit just 26.4% of his triple attempts. Sonics point guard Luke Ridnour is in the midst of his best scoring stretch of his young career, netting double-figures in five straight games and averaging 14.6 points during that span.
After two solid seasons where he fared better as a reserve than a starter, Ginobili has really come into his own this season. The Argentinean is one of the league's quickest players, which allows him to rank in the NBA's top ten with 1.8 steals per game, and he's unstoppable in transition. Ginobili dropped a career-high 48 points on the Suns in a 128-123 overtime victory earlier this month and has failed to reach double-figures just once in 14 January games. With Allen out, who will start at shooting guard probably won't be known until shortly before game time. Antonio Daniels, Ronald "Flip" Murray and even Vladimir Radmanovic - with Rashard Lewis sliding to off guard - are all possibilities, according to Casey.
F O R W A R D S
Bowen is widely regarded as the NBA's best perimeter defender, and the Spurs have absolutely throttled opposing high scorers all season. (Shooting guards have been held to a ridiculously low 39.6%effective field goal percentage, which reflects on Bowen given he defends as many shooting guards as small forwards.) In Allen's absence, Gregg Popovich will likely deploy Bowen against Lewis this evening. Lewis had 27 points against the Spurs in Seattle, but wasn't a big factor in San Antonio. He's coming off of a 24-point outing at Golden State which included the game-sealing bucket.
Veteran Robert Horry got the start in place of Nesterovic on Saturday in the Spurs 93-83 win over New Orleans, recording 11 points, five boards and three blocks. The Spurs list Horry as a center to keep Duncan at power forward, but, three blocks aside, the 6-10 Horry is a center in name only. Horry's length makes him an effective part of the Spurs defense, and his shooting ability can cause matchup problems for the Sonics on the perimeter when they don't have Radmanovic at power forward. Sonics starter Reggie Evans had an outstanding evening on the glass against the Warriors, tying his career high with 17 rebounds in just 26 minutes of action. He's moved ahead of Kevin Garnett and now leads the NBA with 17.9 rebounds per 48 minutes.
C E N T E R
Good as they are, Duncan's averages this season (21.9 points, 11.4 rebounds, 2.8 blocks) could be even bigger if it weren't for the fact that the Spurs are drilling opponents by an average of 10.9 points per game (the largest point differential in the NBA and one of the best in league history). Duncan has averaged just 34.4 minutes in Spurs wins, 37.7 in losses. Duncan is second only to Garnett with 35 double-doubles. Considering how good Duncan is, Sonics center Jerome James has done a good job combating him. Duncan shot just 4-for-16 from the field in Seattle before exploding for 39 points on 14-for-24 shooting when the teams rematched in San Antonio.
B E N C H
Both teams' benches are led by guards who were stalwarts for the other team. Barry (right) played just six minutes when these teams met in December and was in the midst of an unbelievable shooting slump at the time. He's found his touch, shooting 53.2% from three-point range in January, and has resumed an important role. Daniels (left) won a championship in San Antonio and remains good friends with several Spurs, but is playing the best basketball of his career here in Seattle. Udrih, questionable tonight because of a sprained shoulder, has been a revelation. The 28th pick this June, Udrih made the Rookie team for the got milk? Rookie Challenge. He's shooting 41.5% from three, playing great defense, and has finished some games in place of Parker. Malik Rose has struggled in January and hasn't moved up in the San Antonio rotation even in Nesterovic's absence, averaging 4.6 points and 5.2 rebounds in his last five games. Journeyman Tony Massenburg has played just as much in that stretch, starting three games. The 6-9 Massenburg gives the Spurs another shot-blocker. Sonics forward Vladimir Radmanovic is looking to break out of a slump since hitting eight threes against the Lakers; he's shot 1-for-17 in his last two games. Danny Fortson has played a big role in both games against the Spurs, totaling 29 points and 19 rebounds off the bench and containing Duncan. Nick Collison will also get his turn against Duncan, and he had eight points in San Antonio.
TEAM LEADERS
ALLEN
DUNCAN
Allen 24.0
PPG
Duncan 21.4
Evans 8.7
RPG
Duncan 11.9
Ridnour 6.1
APG
Parker 6.2
Ridnour 1.3
SPG
Ginobili 1.8
James 1.3
BPG
Duncan 2.8
Allen 40.0
MPG
Duncan 35.2
USELESS STAT OF THE DAY
The Sonics are undefeated against the Spurs since they signed Barry (2-0).
LAST TIME
On Dec. 8, the Sonics headed into San Antonio to face a Spurs team that had won 21 straight regular-season games at the SBC Center, a streak that dated back to March. Clearly, that didn't bother the Sonics as all, as they came out red hot from the field and outscored San Antonio 29-12 in the second quarter to take a 19-point lead to halftime. The Spurs nearly got it all back in the third quarter, turning up the heat defensively and forcing 10 Sonics turnovers in the period. San Antonio got as close as two in the fourth, but Allen hit a pair of huge three-pointers and Daniels delivered the knockout blow - a three with 1:09 to go that pushed the Sonics lead to 96-87. They finished out a 102-96 win to emerge as the last NBA team undefeated at home this season. Allen scored a team-high 29 points, and the bench - with both Daniels and Fortson scoring 14 points - outscored San Antonio's reserves 41-19. Duncan had a season-high 39 points for the Spurs, the most scored against the Sonics this season.
INJURIES
Sonics - Guard Ray Allen (viral infection) is out. Guard Mateen Cleaves (strained left shoulder), forward Damien Wilkins (patellar tendinitis, right knee) and center Robert Swift (right hip strain) are on the injured list.
San Antonio - Guard Beno Udrih (strained right shoulder) is questionable. Guard Romain Sato (patellar tendinitis, left knee), forward Linton Johnson III (stress fracture, left ankle) and center Radoslav Nesterovic (sprained left ankle).
For more analysis before tonight's game, listen to David Locke on the Sonics Pregame Show starting at 6:20 on KJR 950 AM and 6:30 on Sonics Radio Network stations.