Many Factors in Sonics Early Success
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  • Kevin Pelton, SUPERSONICS.COM | Nov. 11, 2004
    There is no shortage of statistics to describe how dominant the Seattle SuperSonics have been in winning their last four games by an average of 22.5 points per game (there's one right there), but that won't stop us from throwing some out anyway.

    As noted by Sonics pre- and postgame radio host David Locke, the Sonics have not trailed after the first quarter of any of the last three games. San Antonio's last lead was 14-12, Denver's 7-5 and Sacramento's 2-0. The Sonics have trailed for a combined 11:57 of their last four games, or less than one of the 16 quarters they've played.

    Despite getting run by 30 points by the L.A. Clippers in their season opener, the Sonics have the fourth-best point differential in the NBA at +12.0 points per game, trailing only the Phoenix Suns (4-1), Utah Jazz (4-1) and Miami Heat (4-0 and the NBA's last undefeated team).

    The statistics, in this case, only reconfirm what is evident watching the Sonics play: The team is playing its best basketball in a period of many years. While the Sonics started 4-1 each of the last two years, they did not have a single win by 20 points in either of those stretches. Already, they have three in a row this year, all against teams that made the playoffs a year ago.

    FACTOR
    03-04
    04-05
    Offense
    eFG%
    .501
    .508
    TO%
    .139
    .138
    OR%
    .272
    .410
    FTM/FGA
    .207
    .295
    Defense
    eFG%
    .487
    .481
    TO%
    .139
    .153
    DR%
    .685
    .693
    FTM/FGA
    .237
    .255
    How have the Sonics done it? Dean Oliver, a statistical consultant to the Sonics front office, assesses team performance using what he calls the Four Factors of Basketball Success. The Four Factors are shooting (measured by effective field goal percentage), taking care of the ball (measured by percentage of possessions that end in turnovers), rebounding (rebound percentage) and getting to the free-throw line (free throws divided by field goals attempted). The chart at right demonstrates how the Sonics of 2004-05 thus far compare to the 2003-04 Sonics in each category.

    If you've looked at the chart at right, one number in particular should jump at out you. The Sonics are grabbing an incredible 41% of their own misses (including only shots that are rebounded by one team or the other, not those that go out of bounds), meaning a missed shot only ends a Sonics possession 3/5 of the time.

    For comparison's sake, the average NBA team has rebounded 29.7% of its own misses this season. The second-best offensive rebounding team in the league thus far has been the Chicago Bulls, at a relatively puny 33.9%. Currently, the Sonics are comfortably ahead of the NBA record for offensive rebound percentage (dating back to 1973-74, when rebounds were first separated into offensive and defensive boards), 39.1% by the 1991-92 New Jersey Nets. More than any other single factor, the Sonics off-the-charts offensive rebounding explains their fast start.

    Why have the Sonics been so good on the offensive boards, you ask? That question can basically be answered in two words: Danny Fortson. According to 82games.com, the baddest man in pig tails has grabbed 31.6% of all available offensive rebounds all by himself, while the Sonics offensive rebounding percentage with Fortson in the game is 48.7%. The Sonics haven't seen a force like that in the paint since the days of Paul Silas.


    Fortson has been a force in the lane.
    Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty
    Fortson's role is also obvious in the other area the Sonics have markedly improved - getting to the free-throw line. The Sonics have improved their average free throws attempted per game from 21.7 to 30.7 this season, in large part because Fortson has averaged 7.0 free throws per game but also because Rashard Lewis has been getting to the line more, more than doubling his average attempts from 3.4 per game to 7.6.

    The Sonics have improved substantially in a third category, forcing turnovers. Opponents are turning the ball over on 15.3% of their possessions, up from 13.9% a year ago. The Sonics are stealing the ball slightly more - almost entirely because Luke Ridnour, averaging 2.0 steals per game, is a starter - and causing more non-steal turnovers as well.

    What is impressive is not only that the Sonics have been able to improve so much in two areas that were a weakness a year ago, but that they've been able to do it without suffering a loss in their area of strength - making baskets.

    A year ago, the Sonics were one of only two teams (Sacramento was the other) to post an effective field goal percentage (which measures each three-pointer as 1.5 field goals to reflect their added value) of better than 50%. Despite losing sharp-shooting guard Brent Barry - who led all NBA regulars in effective field-goal percentage at 63.7% last year - the Sonics have actually improved this season because Fortson, Nick Collison and Reggie Evans are setting outstanding screens and freeing up Ray Allen (59.4% eFG%) and Rashard Lewis (57.7% eFG%) for open looks.

    The Sonics have also shown improvement in keeping opponents from making baskets, showing that Coach Nate McMillan's philosophy to be "solid" on defense and force teams to shoot with a hand in their face is paying dividends. The primary defensive weakness thus far has been fouls, as the Sonics have sent opponents to the line 28.0 times a night. However, McMillan doesn't have a problem with that; he said after Thursday's Sonics practice that he doesn't want his big men to change the way they play because of fouls.

    "I'm not even concerned about that," McMillan said. "I want these guys to play aggressive. I want to play smart, be smart with their fouls."

    These numbers all come with the very important caveat that the Sonics have played only five games, and there's plenty of the season still left to play itself out. The true test of the team's new style will come when opponents enter games expecting a battle and preparing accordingly. So far, however, the Sonics are winning because they've become a much tougher, more physical team that is the aggressor in the paint.

  • After Wednesday's loss, the Kings complained to the media about the Sonics physical play.

    "They were just grabbing and holding," said Sacramento center Brad Miller. "Not even trying to set picks or nothing. It was just blatantly grabbing."

    Today, McMillan scoffed at that notion.

    "We shot 40 free throws, they shot 39, so if it was (physical), it was on both sides," McMillan said.

  • McMillan said he doubts guard Ronald "Flip" Murray, currently on the injured list because of a strained quad muscle, will travel with the team on its six-game road trip that begins next Tuesday. Murray has yet to resume running regularly as he waits for the injury to heal completely.