Kevin Pelton, SUPERSONICS.COM | Nov. 3, 2004

---

Yesterday, I posted the results of my statistical projection of the 2004-05 season (read it now if you haven't already). Today, I'll go through each team to explain why they rated where they did, specifically in the case of teams where the numbers may depart from conventional wisdom. In addition to coming up with an expected record, the method I used also predicted how often they would come out atop the newly realigned divisions. I've included this information along with the projected record for each team.

Antoine Walker will get his points in Atlanta, but will the Hawks win? Barry Gossage/NBAE/Getty

Atlanta Hawks (24-58, 0.0%)
In the eyes of the system I'm using, newly-acquired Hawks forward Antoine Walker is far from a superstar. In fact, Walker rates as only slightly better than a theoretical "replacement-level player". But while Walker was all wrong for the Dallas Mavericks, who had a bunch of better scoring options, he is ideal for a team like Atlanta that is lacking go-to scorers. Walker had a great preseason (19.5 ppg, but more importantly, 45.1% shooting, which would be a career high) and could be the biggest reason the Hawks outperform that projected record. Rookie Josh Smith, fresh out of Oak Hill Academy, is also a wild card. Smith got high marks during summer-league action, but shot just 35.3% during the preseason.

Boston Celtics (41-41, 29.6%)
The Celtics, like many of their Atlantic Division counterparts, are loving the new six-division format the NBA is using. Instead of fighting for one of the last four playoff seeds in the East, the Celtics and company have a legitimate shot at a top-three seed (though, as I pointed out yesterday, that may not guarantee them home-court advantage). Rookies Delonte West and Tony Allen both rate well based on their NCAA performance, but statistically, Danny Ainge's hopes to get good minutes from Tom Gugliotta (a 34.5% shooter a year ago) are likely to be dashed. Gary Payton's performance will be key. Payton was still a quality player during the regular season, but faded badly in front of a national audience during the playoffs.

Charlotte Bobcats (30-52, 0.2%)
The first of the "Huh?" picks. A few weeks ago, I started work on a "How good are the Bobcats?" piece and used a similar method to project them to win 17 games, about on target with expectations league-wide. The difference is that then I was rating guys like Tamar Slay and Primoz Brezec as poorly as they played last year. There's a bias in the projection system because when players who play poorly return to the NBA the next season, they're usually much improved, and I don't penalize players for their comparables leaving the league. At the same time, in this case, I think the bias is fair. Brezec had a good preseason (13.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg) and impressed Charlotte enough that he got a three-year extension. If he and Gerald Wallace play as well as the Bobcats hope, Emeka Okafor could anchor a solid defense and the Bobcats could steal plenty of wins. The obvious caveat is that no expansion team since 1980 has won more than 22 games, but none of those teams had a rookie the likes of Okafor. The Bobcats got the fourth pick, much higher than the previous best recent expansion team (Vancouver picked sixth in 1995) and then traded up two slots while giving up only their second-round pick. Okafor is rated as providing more than six wins above replacement level (set for teams as 10 wins) all by himself, which is around what last year's top rookies produced.

Chicago Bulls (22-60, 0.0%)
That's pretty pessimistic. Keep in mind, however, that the Bulls did give up two of their most productive players in Jamal Crawford and the underrated Jerome Williams in their trade with New York. As his NCAA stats portended, it doesn't look like third pick Ben Gordon (24.7% shooting during the preseason) will be an instant starter. Still, the Bulls could easily crush that projection if Tyson Chandler stays healthy, they get some productive play from their backup big men (all of whom rate poorly) and Andres Nocioni plays as well as is hoped.

Gooden has big shoes to fill in Cleveland. David Liam Kyle/NBAE/Getty

Cleveland Cavaliers (37-45, 0.0%)
I wasn't surprised to see the Cavaliers rated out of the playoffs. As remarkable a season as LeBron James had for a kid barely out of high school, Carlos Boozer might have been the most valuable Cleveland player (on the court, at least). Boozer's loss is enormous and could push the Cavaliers return to the playoffs back another year. However, Boozer's replacement, Drew Gooden, had an outstanding preseason (12.0 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Robert Traylor is an unheralded addition to the bench. If James takes a huge step forward, the Cavaliers are definite playoff contenders.

Detroit Pistons (49-33, 10.7%)
Underrated going into last year's playoffs, there's a chance the Pistons could be overrated now. It would be a surprise to the general public if they didn't win 50 games, but there's an obvious reason - depth. The Pistons bench isn't what it once was, depending on how much Antonio McDyess can contribute during his first full season back from his two-year battle with knee problems. Mike James, Corliss Williamson and Mehmet Okur were all key off the bench, and all are gone. However, Lindsey Hunter and Carlos Delfino tightened up the defense when they were in the game last night. If they play like that, the Pistons will be just fine.

Indiana Pacers (56-26, 88.4%)
Even after accounting for the multitude of injuries they face to start the season, the Pacers rank as far and away the East's best team and the top regular-season team in the NBA (though their rating is lower than that of the Spurs). Playing Jamaal Tinsley at the point for a full year will help the Pacers if he can keep up last year's improved performance. The Pacers also have outstanding depth, with only Scot Pollard amongst their top 12 players not rating as very solid. David Harrison could surprise in the absence of Jeff Foster. But the Pacers will struggle with two starters on the injured list and a third out of the lineup.

Miami (42-40, 33.5%)
This, on the other hand, does qualify as a surprise. In Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O'Neal, the Heat has two outstanding core pieces, but Eddie Jones' comparable players suggest he's going to fall off this season, and there's not a ton of depth (though Damon Jones and Christian Laettner were quality additions as reserves). Think about it this way - when O'Neal is injured, is Wade good enough to lead this crew to wins? Probably not. The lack of depth is less of an issue in the playoffs, which, along with the possibility of missing both Detroit and Indiana in the first two rounds, is why I have Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Gadzuric is a player to watch this season. Gary Dineen/NBAE/Getty

Milwaukee (44-38, 1.0%)
The Bucks were one of the NBA's most underrated teams last year, and I don't think that's changed. I find it funny when people talk about how much the Bucks will miss Brian Skinner at center; while Skinner was effective, the Bucks were 28-28 when he played and 13-13 when he didn't. 'Nuff said. Dan Gadzuric was a better shooter, rebounder and shot-blocker last season, and he'll get a chance to contribute more. Mike James was a nice pickup at the point, but the Bucks might struggle some behind him until T.J. Ford gets healthy (especially with James himself starting the year on the injured list). Still, the core of this team - Michael Redd, Desmond Mason, Keith Van Horn, Joe Smith - is unchanged, and I don't see why they'd be significantly worse than last season.

New Jersey (27-55, 0.0%)
Because of the health of Jason Kidd and the return of Alonzo Mourning, the Nets are the NBA's toughest team to predict. It's not tough to predict that without Kidd, Kerry Kittles or Kenyon Martin at the start of the season, the Nets are going to struggle. If Kidd comes back quickly and effectively, he could lead them into the playoffs, but this looks like a tough season for the Nets.

New York (41-41, 28.0%)
Subjectively, I had the Knicks pegged somewhat better than this, but the system predicts gloom for Allan Houston and Kurt Thomas in their early 30s. The good news is that Mike Sweetney can offset a lot of that with a potential breakout season. Also, the Knicks might be underrated because Trevor Ariza's NCAA stats translate so poorly. Ariza averaged 9.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.4 steals during the preseason and looks like a possible second-round steal.

Orlando (38-44, 11.4%)
After the Nets, the Magic might be the second most difficult team to predict because of two players: Dwight Howard and Grant Hill. I've projected Hill sees the court for about 750 minutes or so, and I'm not sure whether that's conservative or not. Any minutes Hill can give the Magic are a boon, as he's never struggled with his performance, only staying on the court. High schoolers are a total and complete guess, but none of them are as important to their teams as is Howard. If he's as good as Amaré Stoudemire (who, let's keep in mind, was a full year older than Howard), then the Magic are almost certainly a playoff team. Chris Bosh is a possible comparison (he was mentioned to me by a Sonics beat writer), but I went conservative and projected Howard worse than that. In the Southeast, a Magic division title would not be surprising.

Philadelphia (37-45, 8.2%)
Bill Simmons picked the Sixers to win the Atlantic, but while there's a reasonable chance of that, I don't see it. There was a good reason Allen Iverson was moved off the point when Eric Snow arrived in Philadelphia, and I don't think that his return to the position will be particularly successful. The Sixers have a lot of contributors, but, depending on Samuel Dalembert's development and Iverson's health, potentially not enough star power.

Alston is aiming to lead the league in assists. Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty

Toronto (42-40, 34.4%)
Nobody is picking the Raptors to win the Atlantic, but why not? Nobody's going to run away with the division and Toronto has added some pieces. The spreadsheet really likes Rafer Alston at the point and Bosh should improve dramatically playing his natural power forward position, while a center rotation of Loren Woods, Rafael Araujo and Jerome Moiso could surprise some people. On the other hand, a couple of games could separate the Atlantic champion and the lottery, and I don't agree with the projections of dramatic improvement for backup point guards Milt Palacio and Roger Mason, Jr.

Washington (43-39, 43.4%)
CNNSI.com's John Hollinger started up the Wizards bandwagon in August, and I confess at the time I wasn't on board. After taking a look at the numbers and thinking about it, I tend to agree - if the Wizards can get big men Kwame Brown and Etan Thomas healthy. How many teams boast a three-man frontcourt as good as Brown, Thomas and Brendan Haywood? No, that's not overwhelming, but in a league starved for seven-footers, it's solid. Gilbert Arenas is healthy and should be much improved in his second year with the Wizards, while Antawn Jamison might be worth nearly 10 wins all by himself compared to Jarvis Hayes and Jared Jeffries (both of whom should be much, much better this season). As with the Raptors, some small changes in the ratings (Thomas missing more games than expected, for example) could be enough to push the Wizards from winning the Southeast to out of the playoffs, but they're a pretty good sleeper team.

Check out SUPERSONICS.COM's analysis of the Western Conference.