2006 Draft Profile: J.J. Redick
Between now and the June 28 NBA Draft, SUPERSONICS.COM will break down one of the top 15 prospects in the draft per day, getting audio analysis from Sonics Director of Basketball Operations Dave Pendergraft and commentary from Sonics play-by-play broadcaster David Locke and SUPERSONICS.COM's Kevin Pelton. Today, Duke guard J.J. Redick.


Doug Pensinger/Getty Images
J.J. Redick
From: Duke
Height: 6-4
Weight: 190
Position: Guard
Projected Picks: (as of 6/20)
NBADraft.net: 11
DraftExpress: 14
Pendergraft's take: Click here

Locke's take: For the past draft breakdowns I have stood behind my three-part draftee test - was he the man?; how did he do the second time through the conference?; and what type of big game player is he? However, when I think of .J.J Redick, I can’t get his final collegiate game out of my head.

The drunk driving and the bad back are not the things that have me worried about Redick. The 3-for-18 performance against the athletic LSU Tigers is ingrained in my mind and I can’t get it out. Has there ever been a performance that alters an impression more?

But what is it a team really expects from J.J. Redick? No one expects him to be the go to guy he was at Duke in the NBA. Therefore, if he is simply a complement to the other players on the floor, maybe all the worry about LSU cracked down on him and making him look like an outclassed high schooler should not be of concern.

Or maybe it was one bad game in an otherwise perfect season?

The Locke three-part test shows some concern as well. While Redick was unquestionably the man at Duke, the second time through the conference teams forced him into some terrible shooting nights.

Against Florida State, Redick went 10-of-28, against UNC he was 5-of-21, and after lighting up Wake Forest twice the third time he was just 6-of-17.

This is spotlighting three poor nights of a guy who in the one of the toughest conferences in college basketball had the brightest spotlight in the country on him every night and delivered. I mean delivered. He put up 30 ten times in conference play. He broke 40 twice.

Bottom line is no one is going to ask him to be a primary go-to guy in the NBA. Teams understand that he can score and he will be have to be guarded, opening the floor to everyone else on the floor. Moreover, having played at Duke, no setting will be too big.

If he is available at 10, he is an interesting fit for the Sonics, particularly if the game goes small.

Pelton's take: Redick is a really special player. There's a lot of talk about comparable players, like fellow Blue Devil Trajan Langdon, but Langdon averaged just 17.3 points per game as a senior. Redick scored nearly 50% more than Langdon and did not have the luxury of a future top overall pick playing in the paint in Elton Brand. 26.8 points per game in the nation's best conference is just unthinkable.

The other thing these comparisons miss is how the game has changed to favor shooters. Zone and the ability to hide a player defensively is one aspect of that, but the rules changes have also helped. More penetration means more kickouts means more open looks that Redick is likely to bury.

There's not a great expectation that Redick will be a star player in the NBA, but there's also little question that he is a rotation player and a starter with the right fit. How you value that relative to a player with more potential to break out but also the risk of never contributing is the question NBA GMs must answer over the next week.