Between now and the June 28 NBA Draft, SUPERSONICS.COM will break down one of the top 15 prospects in the draft per day, getting audio analysis from Sonics Director of Basketball Operations Dave Pendergraft and commentary from Sonics play-by-play broadcaster David Locke and SUPERSONICS.COM's Kevin Pelton. Today, UConn forward Rudy Gay.
Pendergraft's take:
Click here
Locke's take: I understand the insane athleticism of Rudy Gay. I understand that if the light goes on he could be truly amazing. However, I can’t get over that there were numerous times when I watched him this last season that he didn’t play hard. At some point I don’t care what happens when the light goes on; what I want to know is why isn’t the light on all the time?
The answer is probably that the game has been too easy and he is so amazingly talented that he can get away with not having the light on. However, before I invest a top-five pick on a player I want to know if the light goes on when things get tough.
The other issue with Gay is what position does he play? He has the body of a three, but is really a four in the NBA. With the much-discussed evolution of the game to Shawn Marion-type players, this is becoming less and less of an issue. Still, I would caution general managers against thinking anyone can be a Marion. He is truly special.
Putting Gay through the Locke three-point test, he fails the first test. UConn did not go as Gay went. He was an important cog on that team, but he never felt the pressure of having to carry a team and perform each night. This is an issue that would concern me if I was picking in the top five.
Test #2, how did he do against teams the second time he played them? This is an area where Gay should be fine since his athleticism is off the charts and no game plan should be able to handle that. Yet the opposite is true.
The third time he played Syracuse in the Big East Tournament he went 5-of-12 with 12 points. The second time he faced Rick Pitino’s Louisville team he was 1-of-6 in 30 minutes for 8 points. Against Villanova, he had a better day, notching 13 points and seven rebounds, but nothing like the 19-10 he had 13 days before.
Finally, test #3, how did he do in big games? He was very average in the aforementioned Syracuse game as UConn was eliminated from the Big East Tournament. Against the Washington Huskies he was silent all game and totally outplayed by Brandon Roy. He did notch two strong tournament games with 20 points versus George Mason in the Elite Eight and 19 against Kentucky.
Another word of caution is that his Connecticut team underperformed expectations all season. Why? That is not clear, but if Gay were a consistent night-in and night-out dominant player my guess is that wouldn’t have happened.
Pelton's take: All the talk right now is that Gay is going third to Charlotte, which seems surprising given the Bobcats have a similarly versatile athlete at small forward in Gerald Wallace. Wallace does not have the upside of Gay, but do the two of them make sense in the same lineup? From a statistical perspective, Gay's best attribute at UConn was his defensive versatility. He averaged 1.8 steals and 1.6 blocks per game last season, but Wallace averaged 2.5 steals and 2.1 blocks for the Bobcats.
While the buzzword with Gay is athleticism, the Draft combine results reported by DraftExpress.com did not show Gay as an extremely good athlete - he ranked 26th in the overall rankings, just ahead of UW forward Bobby Jones. While athleticism isn't always quantifiable, this does raise some questions about just how athletic Gay really is.
Ultimately, whether Gay pans out depends on whether he can compete to 100% of his ability every night. Who can answer that question? Pendergraft talks about his "Fear List" - guys he's scared to take but scared to pass on - and Gay would top that list if I was picking in the top five this year. Whether you pick Gay or pass on him, you could regret it five years from now.
