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Monday's question asked several columnists to project which team amongst the NBA's bottom 10 last season could win a championship within the next for years. At first, my response was a lot like Chris Sheridan's.

"Four years ago, Gary Payton was arguably the NBA's best point guard, while Dwyane Wade was a relatively obscure junior-to-be." David Sherman/NBAE/Getty

"First of all, this is somewhat of a loaded question," wrote Sheridan. "Any answer invites ridicule. You want a CHAMPIONSHIP out of one of these dregs, not just a conference finals appearance?"

Then I began to think about the NBA four years ago. You know who tied for the NBA's 10th-worst record? The Miami Heat - your 2005-06 NBA Champions - and the Phoenix Suns, both 36-46. The Los Angeles Lakers were coming off their third straight championship, with no end in sight. Gary Payton was arguably the NBA's best point guard, while Dwyane Wade was a relatively obscure junior-to-be at a school that had sent just three players to the NBA in the past decade. The U.S. men were coming off a loss in the World Championships. (Okay, some things aren't that different, though this year's squad acquitted itself much better.)

Needless to say, a lot can change in four years. So I thought what might be fun is to do ESPN.com's feature in reverse - look back four years and see what the answers are, as well as how different they are than what we might have answered way back when. (For reference for that, I'm using my memory and old columns, like this set of awful predictions that's almost precisely four years old.)

Which current cellar dweller may turn into a champ?

13 teams missed the 2002 Playoffs - Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Golden State, Houston, L.A. Clippers, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, New York, Phoenix and Washington. Remarkably, nine of those 13 teams made the playoffs last season. They made up four of the first-round winners, and of course the Heat went on to win the championship. Amongst the bottom-10 group ESPN.com has focused on, probably five legitimately could have threatened to win it all.

What would we have predicted four years ago? Well, Phoenix's success was predictable, even if we figured that the Suns would be led by the trio of Stephon Marbury, Shawn Marion and Amaré Stoudemire, not Steve Nash, Marion and Boris Diaw. The Suns had loads of young talent and a track record of success. Beyond that, I'm not sure anyone would have guessed the contenders correctly.

Take the Heat, for instance. Their 2001-02 roster included precisely one member of the championship team - center Alonzo Mourning, who would play for the Nets and get traded to Toronto in the interim. The core of the Heat's title-winning roster was only a dream. Lamar Odom, the centerpiece of the deal to acquire Shaquille O'Neal, was still playing for the Clippers, while Wade was at Marquette. The Heat didn't have much young talent beyond rookie Caron Butler, and they didn't seem likely to have much cap space any time soon (this would change when the agent for backup guard Anthony Carter would fail to exercise the 2003-04 option on Carter's contract, allowing the Heat to sign Odom).

Denver looked like a future title contender, what with a tiny salary commitment for the summer of 2003 and a good shot at winning the LeBron James lottery. The Nuggets won the Northwest Division last year and could contend in the near future, but it was Cleveland that got King James and ascended to competitiveness last season. Houston, with Yao Ming and Steve Francis, was a reasonable bet to contend, as were the Baby Bulls in Chicago. Both teams, like Denver, have amassed solid squads but haven't threatened for the Larry O'Brien trophy.

Which current elite team may find itself in the lottery?

The top 10 teams in the 2001-02 season? In order of regular-season wins: Sacramento, San Antonio, L.A. Lakers, Dallas, New Jersey, Detroit, Minnesota, Boston, Portland and your Seattle SuperSonics. Of that group, the last four missed the 2006 Playoffs, meaning none of the truly elite teams really dropped off as much as teams like Cleveland improved.

Who would you have predicted back then? Portland probably would have been a good (and accurate) guess; the Blazers had been going downhill since coming within a quarter of the NBA Finals in 2000. With a high payroll and several older contributors, Portland's run was clearly coming to an end.

Boston also would have been a good guess, having taken on Vin Baker's big deal. The Celtics run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2001-02 looked suspiciously fluky, and of the team's three first-round picks in 2001, only Joe Johnson had shown any promise - and he'd been dealt to Phoenix for Rodney Rogers, who bolted in the summer of 2002 as a free agent. Boston won its division in 2004-05, but still has yet to match the 2001-02 run.

Minnesota was probably the only unpredictable decline in the group. The Timberwolves looked like a low seed in the playoffs for the foreseeable future, but since advancing to the 2004 Western Conference Finals, Minnesota has struggled.

Who will supplant Dirk Nowitzki as the NBA's best international player?

Well, the answer to this was obvious four years ago and might be the same now: No one. Entering the 2002-03 season, Nowitzki was 24 and still just entering his prime. Still, there were budding international stars. Pau Gasol, coming off one of the most impressive rookie seasons in recent memory, was the most obvious answer. Gasol's game hasn't shown enormous growth in the last four seasons (his beard, on the other hand, has shown enormous growth), but he remains one of the league's better power forwards, the broken foot he suffered in Japan aside.

I kind of resented the media's fawning over Tony Parker during the 2002 Playoffs, but given that he was 19 and starting at the point for one of the NBA's best teams, his potential was clearly immense. Parker still hasn't learned how to shoot consistently from the perimeter, but the NBA's re-interpretation of the rule limiting contact on the perimeter means Parker doesn't have to have opponents respect his shot to be dangerous.

"Given that Tony Parker was 19 and starting at the point for one of the NBA's best teams, his potential was clearly immense." D. Clarke Evans/NBAE/Getty

Parker's backcourt-mate, Manu Ginobili, came to the NBA with plenty of well-deserved fanfare. Also buoyed by the rules re-interpretations, Ginobili has developed into a star. Jamaal Magloire had a big sophomore season in 2001-02 that convinced me he was a future star, and he has made an All-Star Game, though his bouncing around over the last year has been a little disappointing. Andrei Kirilenko also put up good numbers in limited playing time, and he has made good on his promise and more.

There have naturally been some surprises. Diaw was a household name only amongst NBA scouts in 2002, but he's become a rising young star. Andrew Bogut was still a year off from making an impact in the U.S. On the other hand, Hedo Turkoglu looked like a potential star as a backup in Sacramento. Turkoglu is a useful player, but stardom no longer seems to be in his future.

Which player will rise from mediocrity a la Boris Diaw?

This is a difficult question to answer. The whole reason breakout seasons are surprises is because, well, you don't predict them. Nobody would have said Diaw four years ago or even 12 months ago. That said, there were a few players I figured at the time were bound for big things. It's a hit-and-miss group.

Magloire might have led that group. Backing up Elden Campbell in Charlotte, Magloire shot 55.1% from the field and attempted a free throw every five minutes. The high shooting percentage wasn't sustainable; Magloire hasn't even made half his shots since.

Michael Redd was another favorite of statheads after averaging 11.4 points in 21.1 minutes per game and shooting 44.4% from downtown in what was, essentially, his redshirt freshman season. Redd has panned out to form, making the 2004 All-Star Game and ranking ninth in the NBA in scoring last season at 25.4 points per game.

How about some guys who have truly come out of nowhere? Raja Bell is a good example. He averaged 3.4 points per game in spot duty for Philadelphia in 2001-02, but now has become a key cog on the Suns thanks to his defensive ability (apparent even four years ago) and perimeter shooting (which has come a long way, baby). Larry Hughes was widely considered a bust when he went from Golden State to Washington as a free agent in the summer of 2002, but he blossomed into an All-Star with the Wizards. How about one from the 2002 Draft? Tayshaun Prince, the long-limbed forward from Kentucky, went 23rd to Detroit - one pick after Stanford forward Casey Jacobsen.

Any other thoughts?

Okay, that isn't an ESPN.com question, but I wanted to pontificate a little more. What's interesting is that this four-year span has seen more turnover than almost any in NBA history. A lot of that is due to the NBA limiting contact on the perimeter, which has helped teams like the Suns and the Heat in their turnarounds. The superb class of 2003, headlined by James, Wade and Carmelo Anthony, has also played a big role.

There were some answers that were predictable, but the best news for fans of teams that struggled last season is there is legitimate reason to hope to contend in the next four years. As far-fetched as it may seem now, one of the five worst teams in the league last season will be very good in a few years. Now predicting which one of them it will be, that's the hard part.