How could you forget my article last October touting Murray as a breakout player? (Hint: It didn't exist.) David Sherman/NBAE/Getty

Some of the difficulty in the process is determining what, exactly, constitutes a breakout. Take Randolph. While he won Most Improved Player, his per-minute numbers were actually better the season before. Randolph just got the minutes and the opportunity to shine last season. Is that a breakout? Or is it a player like James Posey last season, who plays a similar role but gets more out of it?

Predicting the latter form of breakout is much more difficult. No, I didn't have Ronald "Flip" Murray on my breakout list either. I don't claim to have any way of doing a better job of picking these players. That comes down to scouting, knowledge of the player's work habits and, frankly, luck. As far as the guys who didn't get a chance to shine because they were stuck on the bench, there I think there is a better way.

Kevin Broom, a columnist for RealGM.com and an old colleague of mine, has developed a statistical system to pinpoint breakout players. Broom calls it the "Diamond" rating, for diamond in the rough, and it requires us to rate a player on a per-minute and per-game basis.

Broom subtracts the player's rating per game from his rating per 40 minutes to figure out how much his per game stats undervalue his potential contributions. He then subtracts league average from the player's per-40 minute rating and adds this amount to ensure the player is actually playing well in the minutes he does get.

I've done this calculation for the entire NBA last season, using the NBA's efficiency formula. I excluded players who played more than 30 minutes per game, because they're already playing starter's minutes, and those who played less than 250 total minutes, because their statistics are unreliable.

Does it work? Last year, the number one and two projected breakout players by this measure were Utah's Carlos Arroyo and Randolph. So I'd say yes.

Here are the top five players by position, along with some commentary:

POINT GUARDS Team MPG EFF48 Dia Antonio Daniels SEA 21.3 24.1 12.2 Bobby Jackson SAC 23.7 24.5 11.4 Erick Strickland MIL 13.3 20.3 10.9 Rick Brunson LAC 10.3 19.0 10.2 Charlie Ward HOU 17.6 20.1 8.8

EFF48 - efficiency rating per 48 minutes
Dia - Diamond breakout rating

There's no doubt the Sonics will miss Brent Barry next season, but the presence of Luke Ridnour and Antonio Daniels will help ease the blow. There were times last season when Daniels was at the fringe of Nate McMillan's rotation because the Sonics had Barry as a starter and were developing Ridnour, but he clearly played like a starter last season and will get a chance to play more this year. Bobby Jackson's breakout won't come unless he's traded, as Jackson continues to back up one of the league's best point guards, Mike Bibby. Erick Strickland is a statistical favorite who was beaten out by the surprising Damon Jones for the backup role in Milwaukee. Until T.J. Ford returns to action, Strickland will battle newly-signed Maurice Williams for minutes (if their statistics are any indication, Strickland is the far superior player).

Rick Brunson's been hung with the "journeyman" label, but has performed decently in limited minutes in recent seasons. He was signed for training camp by the Clippers today, but with Shaun Livingston and Marko Jaric on the roster, it's tough to see Brunson getting much of a chance. Subjectively, the player on this list with the best chance of improving his numbers next season is Charlie Ward, who reunited with old coach Jeff Van Gundy in Houston. Ward will battle Tyronn Lue for the starting point guard spot and his familiarity with Van Gundy could give him the inside track to take advantage of incredibly talented teammates Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming and rack up the assists.

SHOOTING GUARDS Team MPG EFF48 Dia Marquis Daniels DAL 18.5 24.7 14.3 Bob Sura HOU 20.8 22.7 10.7 Emanuel Ginobili SAS 29.4 23.3 7.2 Jon Barry ATL 19.3 19.4 7.2 Mickael Pietrus GSW 14.1 14.5 6.5

It doesn’t take a complicated formula to realize that Marquis Daniels - an all-Daniels backcourt on the breakout team - is a breakout waiting to happen. Daniels started 15 games last season and really didn't do that much - only 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists and 1.7 steals per game while shooting 51.8% from the field. In the playoffs, Daniels was a Dallas bright spot, averaging 15.8 points and 6.2 boards. Daniels' play earned him a lucrative new contract as a free agent. There's a certain similarity here to 2002-03 Most Improved Player Gilbert Arenas, who also took most of the season to establish himself as a starter and continued to play at the same level the following season.

Bob Sura is probably also in the battle for minutes at the point in Houston, as he'll have a tough time finding them at the two behind McGrady. Like Daniels, Sura shined down the stretch as a starter, averaging 14.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists in 27 games in Atlanta. He also drew unwanted attention for his effort - later denied by the NBA - to record three straight triple-doubles. Emanuel Ginobili probably doesn't belong on this list, playing just under 30 minutes per game off the bench for the Spurs. With Barry joining the San Antonio guard rotation, Ginobili will again be asked to go hard for about 30 minutes a night.

Barry's brother Jon will fill Sura's vacancy in Atlanta. Barry has traditionally been viewed as an energy guy off the bench who is most effective in less than 20 minutes a night, so his breakout potential is probably limited as well. The same is not true of Mickael Pietrus. The French swingman flashed the potential to be one of the NBA's best defensive players, and the Warriors went 12-10 when he was in the starting lineup. Jason Richardson and Mike Dunleavy are the Golden State starters, but Pietrus will force his way into 20-30 minutes a night this season and could be this year's Tayshaun Prince.

SMALL FORWARDS Team MPG EFF48 Dia Scott Padgett HOU 9.4 23.2 16.8 Rodney White DEN* 13.7 22.4 13.7 Richie Frahm POR 8.6 20.3 12.8 Luke Walton LAS 10.1 20.1 11.8 Jonathan Bender IND 12.9 20.5 11.4

*Currently unsigned. Played for Denver last season.

Scott Padgett's limitations defensively mean he's unlikely to ever become a starter, but he's proven to be one of the league's most effective reserve shooters in both Utah and Houston. With even more double-teams this season, Padgett could become more valuable. At the start of the summer, Rodney White would have been an obvious breakout pick. The 2001 lottery pick put up big scoring numbers last year, but was stuck behind Carmelo Anthony. Legal woes have put the free agent's future in doubt.

Richie Frahm did some great things for the Sonics last season, and the team was disappointed to see Charlotte select him in the Expansion Draft and make no effort whatsoever to keep him. Frahm has landed down the road in Portland, where he probably won't see a lot more minutes but might see them more regularly. Luke Walton had a big Game 2 of the NBA Finals, recording seven points, eight assists and five rebounds in the only L.A. win. That might have fueled talk of a breakout this summer, but the Lakers ended up trading for approximately 63 small forwards in deals with Miami and Boston, so Walton will have to fight for playing time.

Jonathan Bender pops up on breakout lists nearly every year; he was the fifth pick of the 1999 Draft out of high school and is still only 23 years old. But last year, Bender provided some statistical persuasion for that talk, shooting a career-best 47.1% from the field and averaging 26.2 points per 48 minutes despite missing the first 39 games of the year following left knee surgery.

POWER FORWARDS Team MPG EFF48 Dia Danny Fortson SEA 11.1 29.0 24.3 Mike Sweetney NYK 11.8 25.4 18.8 David West NOH 13.1 25.5 18.1 Robert Traylor CLE 13.3 24.5 16.8 Chris Andersen NOH 14.5 24.2 15.7

One of the newest Sonics manages to rate as the league's best breakout candidate. That's partially because the efficiency rating favors big guys, and they end up with better Diamond ratings, but the statistics provide strong evidence that Danny Fortson's numbers were so small last season because he was playing behind Dirk Nowitzki and Antoine Walker. In 30 minutes per game, Fortson would have averaged 10.4 points and 12.0 rebounds, all the while shooting 51.1% from the field. Not too shabby.

Playing for the win-now Knicks, Mike Sweetney got precious little opportunity last season, but made the most of it, averaging 17.5 points and 15.3 rebounds per 48 minutes. Sweetney's numbers at Georgetown were also outstanding, and I've already gone on record as saying that if Sweetney gets a crack at the starting power forward job, he'll be this year's Most Improved Player. David West is sort of a poor man's Sweetney in that regard. West also was a college stud at Xavier who slipped in the 2003 Draft because of the bias against college vets and the depth at power forward. West may steal more minutes from aging P.J. Brown this season.

West's former teammate, Robert Traylor, is the worst breakout candidate on this list, seeing as his weight limits his minutes. But while the attention in Cleveland is focused on Drew Gooden as the replacement for departed Carlos Boozer, Traylor will help as well. Replacing Traylor in New Orleans is Chris Andersen, a flyswatting machine late of the Denver Nuggets. Andersen is unskilled but one of the best athletes for his size in the world, allowing him to rank amongst the NBA's best per-minute rebounders and shot-blockers. In a deep Hornets frontcourt, however, more minutes will be tough to come by.

CENTERS Team MPG EFF48 Dia Zendon Hamilton MIL 10.5 24.8 18.5 Shawn Bradley DAL 11.7 24.5 17.6 Dan Gadzuric MIL 16.8 26.0 16.9 Kevin Willis ATL 7.8 22.6 16.7 Stromile Swift MEM 19.8 26.8 16.3

Zendon Hamilton, you say? Zendon Hamilton?!?! Yes, that's right, Zendon Hamilton. Don't laugh. The St. John's product has put up big numbers in little minutes in his two extended NBA stops, Denver (in 2001-02) and Philadelphia (last season). Now, he's got a reasonable chance to find playing time in Milwaukee, though he'll have to battle another terrific per-minute performer a year ago, UCLA grad Dan Gadzuric (the likely starter). Along with Daniel Santiago, they form the best center trio casual NBA fans have never heard of.

Shawn Bradley and Kevin Willis? Well, not so much. Willis is more likely to break down than break out at age 42. After nearly a decade away, he's returned to Atlanta, but he's too old to play more than limited minutes. Bradley's statistics have a tendency to overstate his contributions on the court, and the addition of Erick Dampier means he'll be battling Calvin Booth for backup minutes.

Then there's Stromile Swift, who will in all likelihood be on this list again next year. Finding a cool free-agent market - largely because of the expectation the Grizzlies would match any offers to the restricted free agent - Swift decided to accept the qualifying offer Memphis had to tender him to earn the right of first refusal. At season's end, Swift will become an unrestricted free agent, at which point he might finally break out.

Breakout potential can best be summarized as the intersection of ability and opportunity. Unfortunately, this list can't determine opportunity, and it is imperfect as a measure of ability - particularly on the defensive end of the court. But it does seem to provide a good starting point when considering which players are likely to be next year's Randolphs or Michael Redds, and the Sonics can be glad to have two players prominent on this list.