2003 Draft Preview - Small Forwards
Once upon a time, it was a debate. LeBron James or Carmelo Anthony? The do-it-all player who had captured the attention of a nation before he finished his junior year of high school, or the quietly brilliant player who made an instant impact at the college level?

For a brief moment, after Anthony had put all his skills on display for a national audience – on free TV, not the cable James required – in leading the Syracuse Orangemen to a national championship as a freshman, the debate was legitimate. Okay, because of the financial benefit of James, nobody was really planning on passing him up if they won the lottery . . . but there was a budding group that believed him to be the better prospect.

And then, all of a sudden, there wasn’t. Which is funny, because Anthony hasn’t played a game since then. Yes, he’s worked out, but how many people were in attendance for that? All of a sudden, the whispers of doubt from the Denver Nuggets, who hold the third pick and are still considered the most likely team to take Anthony, have overcome everything positive he’s done in his career.

Now, Denver Post columnist Woody Paige writes of Anthony, “Anthony has an ordinary vertical leap, is not quick off the dribble, can't rebound, isn't effective inside, won't play defense and hasn't shown a strong work ethic.” While the other categories are largely subjective in nature, rebounding isn’t. Last season, Anthony averaged 10.0 rebounds per game. Yet the doubts persist.

James, meanwhile, remains rightfully regarded as the next big thing to hit the NBA. The Cleveland Cavaliers’ selection of James with the draft’s first pick is but a mere formality; the team already had a “James” jersey on May 22, when they won the Draft Lottery and thus, the right to pick James. It would be a surprise if the Cavs even took the entire five minutes allotted for them to make their pick.

After Anthony and James, sure top five selections, the small forward position may have a limited NBA impact next season. Amongst the other top prospects are a pair of additional high school early entrants, a collegian who played just three games last season, and one who wasn’t even one of the most heralded players on his own team. Perhaps the biggest impacts could be made from a pair of college seniors expected to go in the second round, which probably says more about the modern NBA Draft than anything else.

It’s little wonder, then, that the odds are quite strongly against the Sonics taking a small forward with their first-round picks. The presence of starter Rashard Lewis, not to mention a contract that keeps him in Seattle for at least four more years, also has a great deal to do with that. Behind Lewis, the Sonics are not as settled. Vladimir Radmanovic backed up Lewis following the trade deadline, but he may return exclusively to the power forward position next season. Reserve Ansu Sesay spent the final two months of the season on the injured list, meaning the Sonics might be in the market for a backup small forward with their second-round pick.


LeBron James
(NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 31.6 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 4.6 apg, 3.4 spg (St. Vincent-St. Mary HS)
The measurements: 6-8, 240
The skinny: What is there left to be written about the most discussed high schooler since . . . well, possibly ever. Front-page news since the middle of his junior year, James has graced the cover of Sports Illustrated, played twice in front of a national audience on ESPN, infamously received a Hummer as a gift from his mother, and most recently signed a $90 million shoe deal with Nike. Now, the hype, to some extent, will begin to fade and be replaced with the question of how well James can harness his obvious talent playing against grown men as much as two decades older and more experienced than he. Living up to the hype is difficult for anyone, but don’t bet against James.
Sonics outlook: Over Cleveland’s dead bodies.


Carmelo Anthony
(NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 22.2 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 2.2 apg (Syracuse)
The measurements: 6-8, 220
The skinny: Widely considered the best high schooler in the nation a year ago, Anthony eschewed the direct-to-NBA path chosen by three of his small forward colleagues this season, guessing that a year at Syracuse could improve his stock, even if it meant going head-to-head with James. Anthony lived up to the hype with the Orangemen. His field goal percentage wasn’t great, but why split hairs when the total package is so good so soon? As a 6-8 small forward, Anthony dominated the ball offensively, played an effective wing in Jim Boeheim’s patented 2-3 zone, and led the team in rebounding. Anthony’s regular season was good, but his year went to great in the NCAA Tournament, as he put an otherwise uninspiring group of Orangemen on his back and led them all the way to the championship, closing his college career in style. The doubters have come, and Anthony does need to adjust to playing man defense at the NBA level and improve his shooting, but he’s arguably a surer bet than James with an additional year of development.
Sonics outlook: Not without a trade.


Josh Howard
(NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 19.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.1 spg, 47.7% fg, 37.3% three (Wake Forest)
The measurements: 6-6, 203
The skinny: Entering the 2002-03 season, Howard wasn’t considered much of an NBA prospect. He’d never scored more than 14 points per game, making him a solid, but unspectacular college performer. The graduation of Darius Songaila, taken in the second round by the Boston Celtics, gave Howard an opportunity, and he made the most of it, becoming the first unanimous ACC Player of the Year since David Thompson in 1975. Howard scored rebounded, shot accurately, and led his team to a phenomenal season (albeit one that ended rather prematurely in the tournament). So why is he considered at best a late first-round pick? Howard does not have the ‘upside’ that younger players have, making him less desirable in the modern draft. At 6-6, he’s also a bit on the smallish side for a small forward. Still, it’s an easy comparison to ex-Sonics swingman Desmond Mason, who was similarly an excellent scorer and rebounder in college undersized for the three. Mason has had an extremely productive NBA career thus far, and Howard could as well.
Sonics outlook: Howard would be an easy pick at 41, but it’s extremely unlikely he makes it that low.


Travis Outlaw
(NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 22 ppg, 12 rpg, 6 apg (Starkville HS)
The measurements: 6-9, 210
The skinny: A McDonald’s All-American, Outlaw chose the NBA over Mississippi State. Like most top high school prospects, he does it with athleticism. A tremendous leaper, Outlaw should be an excellent shot-blocker at 6-9. He also runs the floor well, making him valuable in transition. In a half-court setting, Outlaw’s game is not there. Obviously, he doesn’t have a great deal of experience and his understanding of the game is weak at this point. In a few years, however, who knows?
Sonics outlook: If Outlaw somehow fell to 41, he’d certainly be worth considering, but odds are he’ll go between the Sonics picks.


Luke Walton
(NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 10.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.0 apg, 38.4% three
The measurements: 6-8, 245
The skinny: The son of Hall-of-Famer Bill Walton, Luke was a reserve on strong Wildcat teams before breaking into the starting lineup as a junior. Once there, Walton demonstrated a multitude of talents. Though the senior Walton is a commentator, not a coach, his son plays like a coach’s son. Excellent court vision will make Walton one of the best passing small forwards in the NBA. He is also a strong rebounder, averaging better than six boards per game as a junior. Walton’s worst offensive attribute is his shooting. For his career, Walton was just a 42.6% shooter, though he did boost that to 47% as a junior before it slipped during his injury-plagued senior year. He also managed to hit 38.4% from the college three-point line last season, a promising sign. Defensively, Walton is a bit of a tweener, not quite fast enough to guard the league’s more athletic small forwards but forced to the position by his 6-8 height. Nonetheless, Walton could develop into one of the league’s better reserve small forwards.
Sonics outlook: A definite possibility at 41 if the Sonics go point guard/power forward with their first two picks.


Theron Smith
(NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 19.6 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 1.4 apg, 51.3% fg, 37.6% three (Ball State, 2001-02)
The measurements: 6-8, 225
The skinny: Smith put his name in the 2002 Draft pool before pulling out, a decision he may regret. Returning to Ball State for his senior season, Smith played just three games before being forced out for the year by tendinitis in his right knee. The injury does not seem to be a long-term concern, and Smith did put up eye-popping numbers as a junior against MAC competition. Smith played primarily power forward in college and will have to move to the perimeter as a pro, but that shouldn’t be a major problem offensively, as he canned three-pointers at a 37% rate for his college career. At the same time, Smith still rebounds like a power forward, which will help add to his NBA versatility. Because of the level of competition and his year off, Smith’s a second-round prospect.
Sonics outlook: An intriguing prospect, but unlikely to go as high as 41.


Tommy Smith
(NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 11.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.1 bpg, 49.3% fg (Arizona State)
The measurements: 6-10, 215
The skinny: When a player who averaged just 11.2 points per game as a senior in college is a prospect and there aren’t injuries to blame, as there are in the case of Walton, one can’t help but wonder what else the player does so well. In Smith’s case, it’s a little of everything, which is why scouts believe his game will translate well to the NBA level. At 6-10, Smith played inside for the Sun Devils but will have to move to small forward in the NBA. His size, wingspan and athleticism give him the potential to be an excellent defensive player, blocking shots from the small forward position. Smith will have to improve his shooting ability from the perimeter after making just five threes all last season. If he can do that, Smith could compare favorably to Lakers forward Robert Horry, who also entered the NBA as a shot-blocking 6-10 small forward before moving to power forward as he aged and added bulk. That kind of player would be a steal in the late second round.
Sonics outlook: A reach at 41.


James Jones
(NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 16.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.8 bpg, 40.0% three (Miami)
The measurements: 6-8, 215
The skinny: Jones is mostly a prospect because of his three-point shooting. In addition to last season’s 40% shooting from downtown, James hit an excellent 47.1% from three as a sophomore. Jones is also a good defender who should be able to play well defensively on the perimeter. His rebounding is more or less average for a college small forward, but Jones is also a strong shot blocker who ranks third all-time in that category for the Hurricanes. Still, the overall package is not good enough to warrant much more than a late second-round pick.
Sonics outlook: Major reach at 41.


Nbudi Ebi
(NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 22.7 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 3.4 bpg (Westbury Christian HS)
The measurements: 6-9, 195
The skinny: Ebi, an Arizona commitment before deciding to enter the draft, is a bit of a tweener at the NBA level. At 6-9, he played inside as a high school player, but at just 195 pounds that isn’t a realistic option anymore. That means Ebi will have to develop his ballhandling and outside shooting in order to make an NBA contribution. He’ll also have to bulk up to take the pounding of the NBA at even the small forward position. A Nigerian native, Ebi was named MVP of the 2001 USA Olympic festival.
Sonics outlook: It looks like Ebi will probably go much lower in the draft, if at all.