The saying goes that guards, shooting guards in particular, are a dime a dozen, but NBA front offices really haven’t followed the axiom historically. From
Michael Jordan to
Jerry Stackhouse to
Ray Allen, teams haven’t been reluctant to select elite shooting guard prospects before the draft is more than a half hour old.
That story, alas, seems to be in the process of being rewritten. At the same time the league experiences an unprecedented convergence of superstars at the shooting guard that sees as many as five potential Hall-of-Famers – Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Paul Pierce, Allen Iverson and Vince Carter – in or entering their prime, the NBA hasn’t drafted a star shooting guard since Carter. The best of the bunch is probably underrated Michael Redd, hidden in Milwaukee behind Allen, Gary Payton and Sam Cassell and a reserve most of last season. Redd, naturally, was taken with the 43rd pick of the 2000 Draft, one pick before the immortal Brian Cardinal.
The only shooting guard taken amongst the top five picks of the draft since Carter is Jason Richardson, the fifth pick by Golden State two years ago. This year is unlikely to put an end to that trend, with Marquette’s Dwyane Wade, the top-rated two guard – assuming, of course, that high school phenom LeBron James is not placed in the category – unlikely to go higher than the seventh pick.
What’s the problem for shooting guards? In part, it may be attributed to the depth at the position. Of this year’s lottery teams, only three are really looking for shooting guards, making the chances of a reach pick unlikely. At the same time, the dearth of top amateur shooting guards in recent years probably also reflects the NBA’s cyclical nature. It’s only natural for there to be a downturn in the quality of twos after the studs produced in years past were developed. Which of the two is the dominant factor may not be known for several years, until we see if those shooting guards that fell somewhat prove to have been underrated.
For the Sonics, shooting guard was filled for several years to come with the trade-deadline acquisition of Allen from Milwaukee. That’s not to say the team will ignore the players on this list. What is certainly possible is that the Sonics look to draft a versatile player listed at shooting guard in hopes of also giving him minutes at either the point or small forward.
Dwyane Wade
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 21.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 4.4 apg, 2.2 spg, 50.1% fg (Marquette)
The measurements: 6-4, 210
The skinny: In just his second NCAA season (Wade is a junior, but sat out his freshman season academically ineligible), Wade burst onto the national scene as Conference USA’s Plyaer of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, and a consensus All-American. He burned his name into the brains of even casual NCAA fans during the NCAA tournament, leading the Golden Eagles to the Final Four with a tremendous tournament performance, capped by a brilliant 29-point, 11-rebound, 11-assist triple-double to knock out heavily favored Kentucky. Despite his rather limited college experience, Wade is a highly polished plyaer who should be able to contribute immediately. The biggest concern is what position he’ll play in the NBA. At 6-4, Wade would be on the smallish side for a shooting guard, but not unreasonably so. At the same time, an eventual move to the point is not out of the question. Wade averaged more assists per game last season than Kansas’
Kirk Hinrich, one of the top point guard prospects available. Strong workouts have pushed Wade from the late lottery to the middle of it in many mock drafts, and most seem to think he’ll fill Chicago’s hole at shooting guard, staying home.
Sonics outlook: Wade could cause the Sonics an interesting dilemma if he’s left on the board at 12. Memphis would almost certainly take him at 13, meaning the Sonics might take Wade at 12 in the hopes of playing him alongside Allen in a versatile backcourt and getting a power forward at pick 14. However, odds are they won’t have that decision to make.
Mickael Pietrus
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 12.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.7 apg, 57.9% fg, 40.4% three (France)
The measurements: 6-6, 200
The skinny: At just 21, Pietrus is already one of the finest players in France, an All-Star in each of his three full seasons in the country’s highest league and a member of the national team. A natural for the shooting guard position physically, Pietrus has good size and athleticism. His jumpshot is also reportedly strong, if inconsistent. Like many young foreign players, Pietrus may need to improve his decision-making and ability to play under control.
Sonics outlook: Where Pietrus will go is tough to predict. It’s fairly likely he drops to the Sonics at 12, but it’s unlikely they take the chance on him.
Jarvis Hayes
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 18.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 2.0 apg, 50.3% fg, 42.5% three (Georgia)
The measurements: 6-7, 220
The skinny: A big-time scorer, Hayes ranked second in the SEC in scoring during his junior season at Georgia and was the only unanimous choice for All-SEC first team. Hayes can certainly shoot, canning well better than 42% of his three-pointers last season and 50% of his shots overall. The question is what else he’ll do at the NBA level. While his ballhandling has improved, two assists per game is certainly nothing special for a two/three at the NCAA level. Hayes’ rebounding doesn’t stand out either, and he’s not considered a strong defender. At worst, that would still seem to make Hayes an effective sixth man coming in to provide instant offense off the bench, and he retains the upside to become an Allan Houston-type player, which is not a bad thing for a late lottery pick.
Sonics outlook: If the Sonics go best player available with the 14th pick, Hayes is a possibility. He could be a strong player off the bench, even if his path to the starting lineup would be blocked by Allen and
Rashard Lewis.
Aleksandar Pavlovic
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 10.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 0.8 apg, 60.4% fg (Serbia & Montenegro)
The measurements: 6-7, 210
The skinny: After scoring just 38 points during the first two seasons of his professional career, Pavlovic burst onto the scene this season for his Buducnost team, averaging double digits scoring and emerging as a top NBA prospect. At age 19, Pavlovic is talented but unrefined. He has the size and the ability to be a very good NBA player, but needs a lot of development and consistency to become a contributor at the game’s highest level. He could go anywhere from the middle to the end of the first round.
Sonics outlook: At 14, Pavlovic would be a reach. He’s probably not talented enough to justify taking when he doesn’t fit a need for the Sonics.
Carlos Delfino
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 9.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.9 spg, 49.1% fg (Italy)
The measurements: 6-6, 230
The skinny: Two years ago, Delfino was a little-known prospect whom the Sonics were reportedly considering taking in the second round. Instead, Delfino pulled out of the draft and improved his stock somewhat over the last two years. One of the best things for him was probably something he had nothing to do with, the success of Argentinean countryman
Emanuel Ginobili, who also took the Argentina-to-Italy-to-NBA route with considerable success as a rookie. Delfino’s game is, in fact, widely compared to Ginobili, though that may be because of their common heritage. Delfino’s stock has been hurt by an injury he suffered in March, but he should still go in the late first round.
Sonics outlook: In all likelihood, Delfino will go between the Sonics picks, but if by some chance he’s left on the board at 41 the Sonics would give another long look.
Travis Hansen
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 16.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, 44.1% (BYU)
The measurements: 6-6, 210
The skinny: Though Hansen has made his mark in the draft so far with his shooting, particularly in the pre-draft Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, he is a versatile player who led BYU in scoring, was second in rebounds and assists, and was co-Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year last season. That’s a lot to like in a player. At age 25 after sitting out one season as a redshirt and two for his LDS mission, Hansen is one of the older players in this year’s draft, which won’t help him. But teams will be willing to overlook that in the late first or early second round if they believe Hansen will make an immediate impact, which he just might.
Sonics outlook: Another shooter is probably not what the Sonics need from the draft, but Hansen can’t be ruled out if he’s available at 41.
Dahntay Jones
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 17.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.9 apg, 47.0% fg, 39.8% three (Duke)
The measurements: 6-6, 210
The skinny: Only the second transfer during the Duke tenure of Coach Mike Krzyzewski, Jones was expected to be a complementary player despite leading Rutgers in scoring as a sophomore with 16.0 ppg. When Duke lost its top three players to last year’s draft, however, Jones was forced to shoulder an increased load of the Blue Devils offense. He responded by jumping to a team-best 17.7 ppg, good for fifth in the ACC, while dramatically improving his three-point accuracy to 39.8%. Jones has always been an excellent defensive player. At 6-6, 210, he has good size for the two guard position and is also more than athletic enough to cover the best of two guards. Despite Jones’ shooting last season, his perimeter game remains perhaps his biggest weakness. He also needs to improve his ballhandling after averaging less than an assist per game last season. Jones should go in the early to middle of the second round.
Sonics outlook: The Sonics are still looking for a stronger defensive presence on the perimeter, and Jones is a solid bet to be the player to provide it at 41.
Carl English
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 19.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 39.2% three (Hawaii)
The measurements: 6-5, 205
The skinny: A native of Newfoundland, English found a system perfectly suited for his talents thousands of miles away in Hawaii. After taking an injury redshirt after two games of his freshman season and sitting on the bench in year two, English broke out in 2001-02 alongside fellow sharpshooter
Predrag Savovic, averaging 15.5 ppg. With Savovic playing for the Denver Nuggets this season, English became the guy for the Warriors, upping his scoring average to nearly 20 ppg. He had to sacrifice efficiency for that increase, seeing his shooting percentage dip to 42.8%. Don’t think for a second he’s not a shooter, however. English made 89 three-pointers, nearly three a game, at almost a 40% a clip. The major question is whether he can do enough other things in the NBA, but his secondary averages compare favorably to other two-guard prospects. Should be a late second-round pick.
Sonics outlook: 41 is probably too high for English. If the Sonics are looking for another shooter, there will probably be better options available.
Kirk Penney
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 16.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 3.2 apg, 38.5% three (Wisconsin)
The measurements: 6-5, 220
The skinny: There’s a lot to like about the Kiwi who graded out as one of the most athletic players in the draft at the Chicago camp, a surprise to many observers. Penney can shoot, and that’s historically been the first thing people think of with him, but he broadened his game last season. His rebound and assist averages are very solid for an NCAA shooting guard. Penney is very experienced, having played in international competition for New Zealand. The biggest question with him, from an NBA perspective, is whether he can adjust to the catch-and-shoot style that will likely be required of him as a later offensive option. If Penney can manage it, he could have a lengthy NBA career in front of him.
Sonics outlook: An intriguing prospect, but probably a reach at 41.
Keith Bogans
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NBA.com profile)
The numbers: 15.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 38.3% three (Kentucky)
The measurements: 6-5, 215
The skinny: It was an up-and-down college career for Bogans, but when it was all said and done he was the SEC’s Player of the Year last season and the fourth-leading scorer in Kentucky history. Bogans became a starter during his freshman season and had a phenomenal sophomore year, leading the Wildcats with 17.0 ppg. Afterwards, he tested the waters of the 2001 Draft, finding out that scouts questioned his shooting ability and he was likely a second-round pick at best. Bogans returned to Kentucky and, attempting to impress the scouts by playing on the perimeter, saw his game fall apart. His shooting percentage sank to 39.4%, and his 90 free-throw attempts were the lowest mark of his career. Bogans rediscovered his game as a senior, balancing drives to the basket with strong shooting from the college three-point line. Ultimately, he’s a rather one-dimensional NBA player, and that dimension – scoring – isn’t all that special. Bogans could go in the late second round, or might not get picked at all.
Sonics outlook: A serious reach at 41.
Other top shooting guard prospects:
Matt Carroll, Notre Dame
Marquis Daniels, Auburn
Andre Emmett, Texas Tech
Willie Green, Detroit
Justin Hamilton, Florida
Quinton Ross, Southern Methodist