Free Agency is upon us. At Locked on Sonics, exclusive to supersonics.com, we will breakdown the moves, keep an eye on developing stories, break stories, as we did on draft day, and keep an Sonics perspective on all moves.
The number one Sonics issue is Chris Wilcox and the ability to re-sign him. The Sonics and Wilcox have already begun conversations. Wilcox is a restricted free agent, therefore the Sonics can match any offer that he receives. More importantly, the Sonics are very interested in signing Wilcox and having him be a cornerstone to Bob Hill’s 2006-07 Sonics.
July 1st kicked off free agency and before anyone could blink all of the prognostications and expectations of the Free Agency season were gone. Some of it was good news for the Sonics. Let‘s breakdown the moves.
- Peja Stojakovic leaves Indiana to sign with the New Orleans Hornets
Another strong player moves West. This is a stinging blow to the Pacers who gave up Ron Artest to get Stojakovic and now have nothing in return. The Hornets are making a big buzz with this move. Chris Paul is the franchise and David West is a nice post player, complimenting both of those with Stojakovic is a big time move.
Last years, Hornets team ranked 26th in the NBA offensive efficency. Largely, because Desmond Mason started at small forward and he had one of the worst offensive season of any player in the NBA. To add Stojakovic in that role is an enormous upgrade. Moreover, NO/Oklahoma City had the worst effective field goal % of any team in the NBA.
The Pacers next move will be very interesting. Will this force them to move Jermaine O’Neal and start a full rebuilding process? The packages for O’Neal could be very impressive around the league. There is no 20 point 10 rebound post in the NBA and O’Neal is really close.
Sonics Perspective: This is really good news on the Chris Wilcox front because it eliminates a team with Cap room from the Wilcox bidding. Having a non-playoff team in the West get stronger only makes the Sonics quest back to the playoffs even tougher. The Sonics have been very active in the trade market will they get involved for O’Neal if he is put on the trade block?
- Radmanovic same building different locker-room
Vlady has signed a full mid level deal with the Lakers, therefore leaving the Clippers. This is a nice save on a year long disastrous free agency for Vlady.
Interestingly, last season most of the players who signed for the full mid-level were huge disappointments or have already been traded. (see Earl Watson, Stromile Swift, Marko Jaric and others).
Sonics Perspective: My reaction may be the most telling statement about Vlady’s lack of development in the past seasons. I think he changes the Lakers minimally and if that is there big off-season move then I don’t see them as a dramatically different team.
- Clippers Re-Tool with Tim Thomas and Sam Cassell
The Clippers replaced Vlady with Tim Thomas and have signed a two year deal with Cassell. For the Clippers, Thomas may be an upgrade from Radmanovic. Re-signing Cassell was a non-brainer, but not no fail.
If Sam am I returns to play like he did last season the Clippers will be a force again. However, Cassell has a history of playing brilliantly in contract years and then slipping a bit in a non-contract season. On the other hand, Cassell is on the top of my list of the league’s most underrated players. Every team he has played with wins and every superstar he plays with has their best season.
Sonics Perspective: The Clippers are a force in the West. Phoenix gets weaker by losing Thomas and that is the price they paid for not moving Marion. It will be the first of numerous losses for the Suns in the next few seasons due to their financial restraints.
- Bucks trade TJ Ford to Raptors for Charlie Villanueva
I like this deal a lot for the Bucks. TJ Ford is a fast and exciting player, but he is not a good shooter and he very small on the defensive end. With Mo Williams and Charlie Bell, the Bucks didn’t lose anything at the point by trading Ford.
The Raptors may loose Mike James to free agency, therefore they needed to add a point guard to compliment Jose Calderon. It is too hard to evaluate the Raptors until they have completed all of their deals.
Sonics Perspective: Irrelevant.
Wrapping Up the Draft
Posted on June 30 | permalink
The whirlwind is over. Let’s try to make some sense out of all the trades and all the moves that went down on Draft day.
Insanity at #8
We had this story on the live blog from the Sonics draft room as it was happening, but let’s review. Word leaks that Memphis is going to trade to the #8 spot from Houston. Houston will get Mike Miller in the deal and Juwan Howard is going to Memphis. The Grizzlies are going to draft Marcus Williams with the #8 pick.
The Sonics staff, which does an incredible job at forecasting the draft - evidently much better than others (see the Blazers) - knew that Rudy Gay would be on the board at eight and if Marcus Williams went #8 and Patrick O’Bryant stayed as forecasted at #9, then Gay could shockingly become a Sonic.
When it got to the #8 pick and Gay was there, from what I have heard around the league, Houston wants to pull out of the deal, so Memphis puts Shane Battier in the deal and is willing to take the long contract of Stromile Swift - a huge price for the #8 pick. Houston obviously takes the deal. I think it was the best move of the day by any team and Rudy Gay goes to Memphis. Gay better be great or the logo, Jerry West, made a very questionable move.
What Did Your Draft Board Look Like?
At SUPERSONICS.COM, we reported early that Andrea Bargnani was going #1. Then we reported that Chicago wanted Tyrus Thomas and would take him #2. Then we reported that Charlotte, surprisingly, was taking Adam Morrison.
So why did Portland trade up to the #2 spot and lose one of Nate McMillan’s favorite players in Viktor Khryapa? There was no need, except they jacked up their draft board.
Furthermore, in the Blazers trade with the Celtics where they sent Sebastian Telfair to Boston for the #7 pick, they also took back the contract of Raef LaFrentz while giving up Theo Ratliff. In all likelihood, this means they will not be able to sign Joel Przybilla and that leaves them without a center for the next season.
This is not to mention that they misjudged where Brandon Roy was going to be and had to pay another $3 million or so to get him from Minnesota.
Eight Men Out
The reality on this draft is it was lacking in superstar talent and even then was only about eight players deep. For the last week or so we have consistently been mentioning that the top eight were settled.
With all the trades and everything else that took place, the top eight ended up being shuffled around, but by the ninth pick all of them were off the board and then it was time to play guess the project.
This was a guess the project game. Which project will be able to play in the NBA? Which player will overcome his wart and be able to make the NBA?
I believe in the special skill rule. Find a player with a special skill, a player who has one part of their game that is unreal or truly exceptional and he has the best chance to make it.
By contrast, the player that is average across the board will mold into the chair at the end of the bench.
With that established, here is my list of first-round players I believe will have long NBA careers thanks to their special skill.
Player Special Skill
Mouhamed Sene shot blocking and height
J.J. Redick shooting
Shawne Williams length and skill range for position
Quincy Douby shooting
Kyle Lowry explosion, toughness
Hopefully more will pan out, but I am not optimistic.
Is Roy Slipping? Mock Draft as of 10:30 a.m.
Posted on June 28 | permalink
Updated at 10:30 a.m.
The draft world is not getting an easier to figure out. The Portland/Boston rumors are staying strong, which means Portland could have a chance to walk out with both Adam Morrison and Brandon Roy. The latest mock has Roy dropping all the way to Houston at #8 which is the lowest I have seen him yet.
Here is what I am hearing at this point.
- Toronto Andrea Bargnani
- Chicago Tyrus Thomas
- Charlotte Rudy Gay
- Portland Adam Morrison
- Atlanta Shelden Williams
- Minnesota LaMarcus Aldridge
- Boston Randy Foye
- Houston Brandon Roy
- Golden State Ronnie Brewer
- Seattle Saer Sene
- Orlando J.J. Redick
- NO/Oklahoma Rodney Carney
- Philly Marcus Williams
- Utah Patrick O’Bryant
- NO/Oklahoma Hilton Armstrong
- Chicago Thabo Sefolosha
- Indiana Cedric Simmons
- Washington Rajon Rondo
- Sacramento Shawne Williams
- New York Alexander Johnson
- Phoenix Kyle Lowry
- New Jersey Sergio Rodriguez
- New Jersey Olexsiy Pecherov
- Memphis Shannon Brown
- Cleveland Jordan Farmar
- Lakers Quincy Douby
- Phoenix Leon Powe
- Dallas Joel Freeland
- New York Darius Washington
- Portland Daniel Gibson
Latest Scuttlebutt
Posted on June 28 | permalink
Updated at 8:15 a.m.
Here is the latest ...
- The Sonics will be choosing between Rodney Carney, Ronnie Brewer, Saer Sene, Patrick O’Bryant, Cedric Simmons, Hilton Armstrong, J.J. Redick and Shawne Williams.
- Carney or Brewer may go 9 to the Warriors.
- The tide has swung back toward the Raptors taking Andrea Bargnani with the first pick
- Brandon Roy seems to be every ones second choice. He may end up #7 in Boston or #8 in Houston.
- The top eight seems set, in no particular order, Bargnani, Thomas, Aldridge, Morrison, Roy, Shelden Williams, Rudy Gay and Randy Foye.
- Shawne Williams continues to climb the draft board.
- Orlando has done the background work and sounds as though they are comfortable with J.J. Redick with the #11 pick of the draft.
- Patrick O’Bryant could be the bigger dropper. Right now he is expected to go #14 to Utah, but they could pass.
- Most people believed that O’Bryant was going to go #9 to the Golden State Warriors, but according to his agent he has not worked out for them and doesn’t want to play for the Warriors. This may be a huge smokescreen and in fact O’Bryant is promised at 9. That would be good for the Sonics.
More to come, keep checking back for updates and at 1 p.m. I will be live in the Sonics draft room live blogging exclusive to SUPERSONICS.COM.
Would Sonics go Big Three Years in a Row?
Posted on June 28 | permalink
Updated at 7:30 am
Let’s re-visit a discussion we had earlier on SUPERSONICS.COM. Should the Sonics go big with the 10th pick of the draft?
The names that are floating around the 10th pick include swingmen Ronnie Brewer and Rodney Carney, power players Cedric Simmons and Hilton Armstrong, tweener Shawne Williams and big man Saer Sene.
Why when the Sonics already have Swift and Petro would they go big again? The reason not to go big again is obvious. Most people believe you can’t develop three bigs at the same time. However, having Jack Sikma as an assistant coach may change the Sonics equation.
The more in depth you go the more it begins to make sense. First, to acquire a big man via trade or free agency in the NBA you have to pay a mint. Bigs are notoriously overpaid throughout the NBA. Rarely can you get your money value for a big, unless you develop them through the draft.
Look at the scenarios if you draft another big. Best case scenario, Swift and Petro both develop. Then you trade the new big and in all likelihood get a value higher than the #10 pick of this draft. Both Swift and Petro develop and it costs too much to keep them both then you have acquired your security and you move Swift or Petro and hold them out for a king’s ransom. The Sonics really could extract blood from some one who needs a big.
Worst-case scenario, Swift or Petro stall in their development and then you have acquired another possibility to fill the gap in the middle.
Specifically, to this draft there aren’t many players that will be able to burst through the Sonics 10-man rotation. Therefore, their may be a logic in taking a project big like Saer Sene.
Sene is a 7-footer with a freakish wingspan of 7-9. He is raw. Raw with a capital R. According to scouts, a year ago he couldn’t go through a lay-up line. This year he made so much progress he became a vital part of his team. Coaches say you can literally see him developing practice to practice sometimes even drill to drill.
The most common comparison to a current NBA player is Dikembe Mutombo.
A story circulating out of Sonics workouts is that Hilton Armstrong went in for a high flying one-hand tomahawk dunk and Sene reached up and just stonewalled him as though his hand was a concrete wall.
Don’t immediately throw away the idea of the Sonics going big for the third year in a row. It makes more sense the more you think about it.
Sonics Rumors
Posted on June 28 | permalink
Updated at 7:00 a.m.
According to my sources around the NBA the Sonics are very active in trade talks. While the Shawn Marion discussion is done, the phone is still ringing. It will be exciting to be in the draft room to see how this all plays out.
The New York Daily News is reporting the Nets are talking with the Sonics about swapping one of their late first round pick for the Sonics #10 and giving the Sonics a first-rounder next season.
This type of deal makes a lot of sense for Seattle. They feel confident in their 10-player rotation for next season and believe that next’s years draft is very strong.
In addition, Seattle has earmarked a few players they are interested in later portion of the first round that may be of nearly equal value to anyone at #10.
Trade Rumors
Posted on June 28 | permalink
Updated at 6:30 am
Good morning and happy Draft day. Today I will be live inside the Sonics draft room starting at 1 p.m. The NBA deadline for deals to be announced before the draft is 2 p.m. After that all deals can’t be announced until after all picks have been made.
This should be a very exciting day here at SUPERSONICS.COM.
Here is the early morning update, from what I am hearing around the league
Any trade talks that were going on between the Phoenix Suns and the Seattle Supersonics are on the back burner or non-existent at this point.
The three-way trade that was rumored between Boston, Philadelphia and Utah was legitimate and discussion did take place. The deal had Iverson going to Boston, Boozer to Philly and Wally World and Al Jefferson heading to Utah.
The talks cooled down yesterday afternoon. What is relevant here is that the formation of a deal was discussed. Therefore, this morning's rumors of Allen Iverson being involved in a deal with an Eastern Conference team look to Boston.
According to my sources, Utah is out and Boston is trying to find a new way to make it work and probably needs a third team. This may be a deal that gets consummated in July their aren’t a lot of draft day components.
Yesterday, we talked about a deal that would send Sebastian Telfair from Portland to Boston. This is on the back burner as long as the Iverson talk continue.
The Chicago Tribune is reporting that Charlotte and Memphis are also involved in the Iverson talks.
Trade Rumors
Posted on June 27 | permalink
Rumors, rumors and more rumors. That's where we are now with a little more than 24 hours left until the Draft. Let me address a few that have been floating around.
Sonics and Suns (Lewis and Marion with picks involved) - I have already done a longer blog on this issue. The deal makes a lot of sense for both teams. Talking to NBA personnel people, they like the deal for both sides. The rumor that the Sonics wouldn’t do the deal due to money issues is simply inaccurate. The Sonics have structured their contracts in a manner that allows them to do this deal, not the opposite.
The Suns have a luxury-tax issue, so Marion is on the block and the discussions are ongoing with teams.
Portland and Boston (Telfair to Boston for #7 and Dickau) - If this goes down it is a remarkable admission by the Blazers that they blew the Telfair pick. This is classified as a weak draft and they would be willing to move a first-round pick with two years experience in order to get a new point guard, maybe Randy Foye.
After watching Telfair this season it doesn’t surprise me that the Blazers would consider this deal. Which leads to why would Boston make this deal?
Houston and Atlanta (Luther Head and #8 for #5) - All reports indicate that the Rockets have their eye on Brandon Roy. I love this deal from both sides. If the Rockets have really identified Roy as a player they want, then this is exactly how a team should make a deal.
Roy would take away some of Head’s minutes. Therefore, there is no reason not to move him to get Roy. For Atlanta, Head would be a nice addition and depending what happens there is a real chance that Shelden Williams could be available for the Hawks at pick eight.
This all falls apart if Roy doesn’t go to #5 and he seems to be the second choice for all the teams ahead of the fifth pick.
Philadelphia and Golden State - Is it possible that Golden State might really want Allen Iverson and his contract? Let’s just remember one thing. Golden State has Baron Davis and he has not been an angel at all times in his NBA career. This move could be as much about Baron as it is about Iverson.
Minnesota and Kevin Garnett - According to my NBA sources, Garnett is not on the board for trades. That won’t stop the talk, but reality has him in a Timberwolves uniform.
Mock Draft as of 10 a.m.
Posted on June 27 | permalink
As we move inside 36 hours to Draft time, things are beginning to take shape. The wild card is all the trade talk, including that of the Sonics and the Suns and the Rockets quest to move up in the draft.
The big news is that the first and second picks are more set than they have been all pre-draft. However, they are not what people anticipated with Andrea Bargnani no longer the anticipated first pick of the draft. It is still not clear who will take the first pick.
The common phrase amongst NBA people is the draft starts at #3. According to my NBA sources, the Bobcats, who have the third pick, were set on Adam Morrison. That has been sent into a whirlwind with the hiring of Michael Jordan. All indications are that Jordan will be in charge of the third pick. That has people believing that he will take Rudy Gay.
Charlotte is hard to read. Gay is very similar to Gerald Wallace, who is already on the roster.
Portland will then have to make the local choice of Brandon Roy or Morrison. This scenario has also reduced the chances of Portland moving in the draft.
Bargnani falls to five which gets interesting. Numerous NBA sources believe that the Hawks have promised Shelden Williams at #5. However, if Bargnani slides to five it is hard to believe they won’t break the promise and take the Italian.
Bargnani’s slide could also create incredible trade action. He is one of the few players in the draft that a team may have fallen for. The draft can change dramatically if one team falls in love with a player. Bargnani is a player people can fall in love with.
Minnesota sits in the catbird seat and ends up with either Roy or Morrison depending on what Portland decides. The one concern for Roy would be that he is not the type of player Minnesota is looking for. Kevin McHale has been much more pointed toward taking a strong athlete then a player like Roy.
With that background here is what I am hearing as of 10:00 a.m. Tuesday morning. This is obviously subject to change. I am stopping at the end of the first round because it gets ridiculous after that point.
- Toronto LaMarcus Aldridge
- Chicago Tyrus Thomas
- Charlotte Rudy Gay
- Portland Brandon Roy
- Atlanta Andrea Bargnani
- Minnesota Adam Morrison
- Boston Shelden Williams
- Houston Randy Foye
- Golden State Patrick O’Bryant
- Seattle Ronnie Brewer
- Orlando Rodney Carney
- NO/Oklahoma Cedric Simmons
- Philly Marcus Williams
- Utah J.J. Redick
- NO/Oklahoma Rajon Rondo
- Chicago Thabo Sefolosha
- Indiana Hilton Armstrong
- Washington Shawne Williams
- Sacramento Alexander Johnson
- New York Saer Sene
- Phoenix Kyle Lowry
- New Jersey Sergio Rodriguez
- New Jersey Olexsiy Pecherov
- Memphis Shannon Brown
- Cleveland Jordan Farmar
- Lakers Quincy Douby
- Phoenix Leon Powe
- Dallas Joel Freeland
- New York Darius Washington
- Portland Daniel Gibson
Of course this will all change shortly.
Lewis for Marion?
Posted on June 26 | permalink
The biggest rumor in the NBA right now involves the Sonics and the Phoenix Suns. The rumors, mentioned first by Draft Express, center on the Sonics trading Rashard Lewis to the Suns for Shawn Marion. There are other pieces to the deal including the swap of draft picks, but the principals being mentioned are Lewis and Marion.
I am doing the best I can to find out the validity of these rumors and honestly I am not getting much traction. It is too early to handicap if this will take place or not, but there is a deadline staring everyone in the face on Wednesday and that often forces action.
However, let’s back up and look to see if there is any reason why this would take place.
Is it possible that Shawn Marion is really available? Why would the back-to-back Western Conference Finalist Phoenix Suns be willing to part with their 22-point, 12-rebound a game player?
With the development of Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa the Phoenix Suns have significant financial decisions to make in the near future. The Suns already tied up Steve Nash and Amaré Stoudemire in a long term deal and signing all of their players is sure to push them over the luxury tax.
The NBA luxury tax is a painful pill. Not only do you have to pay a dollar to the pot for ever dollar you go over the tax, you also forfeit a significant part of the re-distribution of other teams' luxury-tax payments, which usually amounts to millions of dollars.
Therefore, it is not out of the box that with a player as good as Rashard Lewis as a replacement that the Suns might be willing to move Marion.
From a Sonics standpoint, Lewis is a fantastic talent and an All-Star in his own right. So why would they be willing to make the move? On one level, Lewis has an out on his contract at the end of the season and has said publicly that he will exercise it. On the other, you only give up Lewis when you have a chance to get a player that most NBA people rank in the top 10 of the NBA.
When the Suns lost Stoudemire for the season last year, the burden fell on Marion and Nash and the Suns didn’t miss a beat. Marion brings a defensive presence to the floor. He averages nearly two steals and two blocks a game and is third in the NBA in rebounding. Impressively, Marion does most of his scoring without his number being called, which could be a nice compliment to Ray Allen.
League rules restrict the Sonics ability to discuss an extension with Lewis until the anniversary of his deal. If you recall that was a dragged out negotiation that went into September.
The Sonics have done a terrific job creating financial flexibility and therefore would be able to add a contract like Marion’s.
From the Suns standpoint, Lewis would be unreal in their system. His amazing outside shooting would be accentuated in their open-floor game. With a spread floor he could develop his dribble-drive game and improve his scoring average, which was already 20.1 points per game last year.
Crazy rumors involving players of this quality and magnitude almost never come to fruition, but this at least makes some sense for both sides.
I Have No Idea
Posted on June 26 | permalink
This has become ridiculous. I have talked with five different NBA people today and I can’t get anyone to reveal what they believe will be the top 15 of the draft. Why? Because no one knows.
Every conversation I have stops at the top. As we get closer and closer to the actual day no one believes that the Raptors are going to take Bargnani with the #1 pick. Adam Morrison #1 seems to be gaining some momentum. However, to whom is not clear. The only consensus is the belief the Raptors want to move the pick. The only other consensus is that the Blazers are trying to move up in the draft.
I am not sure what is going to make this shake out into any order. I will keep working the phones and see what I discover.
Check back soon and remember I will be blogging live from the draft room on Wednesday starting a few hours before the draft.
Special Skills
Posted on June 25 | permalink
When evaluating talent for the NBA I am big believer in the special skill concept. This theory argues that a player needs to be special in one category to be able to survive in the NBA. In contrast, the player who is average at all skills will not last long.
In this year’s NBA draft here is the breakdown of the special skills - according to NBA personnel - for the top rated players, in no particular order. I have added comments where I feel it appropriate.
- Bargnani- ability to shoot and size for position.
- Thomas - best athlete in the draft. I question if athleticism is enough of a skill. See Stromile Swift.
- Morrison - unreal ability to make a contested shot. Shot-maker.
- Roy - all-around fundamentals. Sound game. My only concern on Roy whether or not he has something he will excel at in the NBA.
- Aldridge - low-post scoring
- Gay - transition, open-floor game.
- Brewer - multi-dimensional, strong on-ball defender.
- Shelden Williams - rebounder, defensive anchor. Sounds very similar to what they said about Nick Collison.
- Carney - freakish athlete. Again, is this enough without a special basketball skill?
- Redick - ability to shot.
- Simmons - upside. This certainty concerns me if they are hoping he will develop a special skill.
- Foye - strong, great pick-and-roll passer. Strong shot maker. He his game sounds like it translate faster to the NBA then most of the prospects.
- Sene- shot-blocking, 7-8 ½ inch wing span
- O’Bryant - future. Again, this is a concern.
- Marcus Williams - respect for receivers. Great deliverer of the ball.
Thinking Second Round
Posted on June 25 | permalink
The Sonics have two second-round picks. In all likelihood they will move one of those picks or draft an overseas player who they will develop in Europe for a few season before he comes to Seattle.
Specifically to this year’s draft, the talent seems to be even from around pick 15 to 45 and maybe as far as 55. Therefore, the art of scouting will be the ability to figure which players are able to overcome their warts and figure out how to play in the NBA.
Scouts break players into four categories: All-Star, starter, rotation player and roster player. The hope for the Sonics is to find a rotation player a few years down the road.
These players are often the players that bring the unnoticed value. Michael Ruffin of the Wizards is a good example.
According to scouts, the best way to get the right guy is if you see two things: the right size for position and secondly a pattern of improvement.
Numerous former Pac-10 players fall into this group, including Cal’s Leon Powe, UCLA’s Ryan Hollins and Arizona’s Hassan Adams.
Gelabale's Value
Posted on June 25 | permalink
According to sources in the NBA, the Sonics have received multiple offers for Mickael Gelabale. Teams are wiling to give up lower-level first-round picks for the Sonics second-round draft pick of a year ago. It is unlikely the Sonics would part with Gelabale.
At age 23, Gelabale is a bit more refined than some of the younger player available in this draft.
According to European scouts, Gelabale is a terrific athlete and a streaky shooter that can get amazingly hot. Their concern when he adapts to the NBA game is he has a level passivity in his personality and doesn’t seem like the type to walk into a camp and grab everyone’s attention and force himself on the floor.
Instead, it will take him sometime to get accustomed to the surrounding and he will work his way into the rotation as the season develops.
A New Name
Posted on June 25 | permalink
Here is a new name to keep an eye on. More and more NBA people are discussing Shawne Williams out of Memphis. So much attention in the draft has been placed on his teammate Rodney Carney, but Williams could end up going higher.
“He has a chance to be a star,” said one NBA personnel person. NBA people break up talent into All-Star, starter, rotation, and roster players. In a draft almost completely void of All-Star players, for the word “star” to be mentioned is eye-opening.
Keep an eye on Shawne Williams in the next few days.
The Big Question
Posted on June 25 | permalink
Pretend it is draft day. The clock is on and you are the Sonics decision maker.
Both intriguing 7-foot prospects, Patrick O’Bryant and Saer Sene, are available. What do you do? In all likelihood one of two will go to Golden State at 9, but one will be on the board for the Sonics.
Do you automatically dismiss them because you already have two 7-foot prospects?
Let me argue the opposite. Using a “Moneyball” approach, 7-footers are the most highly overpaid position in the NBA if you have to acquire them via free agency and the most difficult if you have to acquire via trade.
The examples are so numerous and the mistakes so egregious that I need not mention each by example.
The NBA game is evolving into a quicker, longer game on the perimeter because teams can’t find enough big players. If the Sonics have a chance to add a third can they afford to pass.
The Sonics roster is currently very well established nine deep with a potential 10th in Gelabale. Doesn’t that make it even more reasonable to pull the trigger on another prospect?
The most intriguing is Sene. He has a 7-8 ½ wingspan. He is insanely raw. According to NBA people, a year ago he couldn’t make a lay-up and now one season later his evolution is remarkable. He is highly intelligent and has a great work-ethic. His game reminds people of Dikembe Mutombo.
Part of the league is acquiring assets. If the Sonics have three 7-footers on the roster the trade offers will be rolling in all day every day. Teams can become desperate when it comes to finding a big man. Thus, the Sonics would have the ability to fill their other holes down the road when in the “Moneyball” aspect they are able to extract blood from someone overpaying for a big.
This will be a very interesting debate inside the draft room for the Sonics up until Wednesday. We will be there Wednesday with a live blog from the draft room.
Starting today, I will be updating the blog several times daily. Check back regularly for the latest.
How Do You Measure?
Posted on June 22 | permalink
As we get closer to the Draft, players' values start to really ebb and flow. General managers' eyes begin to get even more critical and every wart becomes a little bit larger. Sometimes those warts are measurables. Two players measured out quite differently than anticipate. Could it cause a slip on draft day?
Memphis super-athlete Rodney Carney measured out at just 6-4. This makes him a shooting guard only and that worries a lot of NBA people. Many of his skills don’t translate as well as a shooting guard. He is still all athlete and little player. His handle is poor for a shooting guard.
Adam Morrison measured at just 6-6 ½ . This may not be a huge issue. However, many have tried to compare him to Tom Chambers and that is significant four-inch size difference. Kiki Vandeweghe may be a better comparison.
No Go For KG
Posted on June 22 | permalink
After months of talk and blustering, according to my sources in the NBA the Minnesota Timberwolves are not interested in trading Kevin Garnett.
According to my sources, numerous teams including the Sonics have made efforts to start trade discussions and they have all been met with very little response from Minnesota.
In addition, take the rumored names of Pau Gasol and Andrei Kirilenko out of the trade discussions, because their teams are not willing to move them.
The situation in Utah with Kirilenko is an intriguing one. He is a terrific player and may impact the defensive end more than any player in the league. However, Utah gave him a max contract and he may not be a max player. Burdened with the contracts of Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur, there is a reasonable case to be made that the smart thing for Utah to do is to move out from the contract of AK-47.
To Be Two or Not To Be Two
Posted on June 22 | permalink
To be two or not to be two? For LaMarcus Aldridge and Tyrus Thomas, that is the question. As of Thursday afternoon, there is no consensus on how the draft is going to play out and the fluctuation is enormous.
Let’s assume that Toronto is going to take Andrea Bargnani with the first pick. This is still just an assumption. What the Bulls do with the second pick will have a large impact on Thomas or Aldridge.
Brandon Roy is a possibility at #2, but in all likelihood they will take either Thomas or Aldridge with Roy going three and Adam Morrison #4. Sources say Atlanta has promised Duke star Shelden Williams at #5. If this is true, then Aldridge or Thomas gets to Minnesota at #6.
Both assumed they were top-three picks when they declared for the draft. Top six doesn’t make it a bad decision, but it is a significant difference. It may be a steal falling in the lap of Kevin McHale and the Timberwolves.
Big Names for the Taking
Posted on June 21 | permalink
Trade talks are going nuts around the NBA right now. The big question is who is really available. From the sources I have talked to in the NBA here is the list of big name players that are on the block.
The obvious ones are Zach Randolph in Portland, Kenyon Martin in Denver and Carlos Boozer in Utah.
The numerous reports of Allen Iverson being on the table from Philadelphia seem to be legitimate.
Indiana is in flux on the issue of Jermaine O’Neal. However, the convergence of losing Ron Artest last season and a fading fan base makes it more and more likely that the correct offer could get O’Neal.
Realize that draft day is not always the best day to get a deal done and more often than not the draft day talk leads to the deals that take place in July.
J.J. Redick a Mystery - Is he a Sonics Mystery?
Posted on June 21 | permalink
The biggest unknown around the NBA draft is J.J. Redick. The earliest Redick is projected is #8 to the Houston Rockets. However, the word around the league is that Rockets may be looking at more athletic swingmen - Ronnie Brewer, Rodney Carney or Randy Foye.
If Houston passes on Redick, how far does the Duke standout fall? Barring a really huge surprise, the Golden State Warriors are going to draft a big. Therefore, Redick would be on the board for the Sonics.
Most people in the NBA believe the Jazz at 14 would take Redick if he were still on the board.
What gets interesting is what do NBA people think of the National College Player of the Year? Would people be willing to move up to get Redick? He has a special skill, he can shoot.
Success at the NBA level is most often dictated by the ability of a player to have a special skill. The player that is average across the board, see Reece Gaines, usually fails at the next level. Redick most definitely has the special skill.
Specifically, to the Sonics, does another shooter like Redick fit into the roster? After the Radmanovic trade the Sonics were short a shooter on the roster. Redick will fill that need as well as the gap at backup shooting guard.
On the other hand, other NBA teams are sure to be hot for a player that dropped 30 eight times in ACC play. Would they give the Sonics a package worth trading the 10th pick?
Breaking Down Tiers
Posted on June 16 | permalink
For the past week, I have been attempting to construct a look at the NBA draft by talent tiers. However, it has become nearly impossible to construct the tiers.
Originally, I thought Tier 1 of the NBA draft was obvious. The top four were LaMarcus Aldridge, Tyrus Thomas, Andrea Bargnani and Adam Morrison. However, more and more the word is that Chicago is seriously considering taking Brandon Roy with the #2 pick. The Bulls would then fill their frontcourt needs in free agency and build an imposing line-up.
Therefore, Tier 1 must include the five aforementioned players. But nothing is that simple in this draft. Word is spreading around the league that both Shelden Williams and Patrick O’Bryant are anticipated to go in the top seven of the draft. With Minnesota sitting at six and desperately needing an athlete or a point guard it is unlikely they will be taking either Williams or O’Bryant. That begs the question - is it possible that Williams or O’Bryant could be picked in the top 5?
Draft tradition shows that big guys jump in the final weeks before the draft and in the case of Williams and O’Bryant this may be true.
From a Sonics perspective, this is all good news. With a front court of Wilcox, Collison, Petro and Swift it is unlikely that the Sonics will be zeroing in on a frontcourt player at 10 unless someone blows their socks off. So if Williams and O’Bryant skyrocket into the top seven as some believe will be the case, then a really solid athlete could fall to the Sonics.
As of Friday, here is how I would break down the tiers of the draft:
| Tier 1 |
Tier 2 |
Tier 3 |
Tier 4 |
| Aldridge |
Foye |
Brewer |
Armstrong |
| Bargnani |
Gay |
Carney |
S. Brown |
| Morrison |
O'Bryant |
Rondo |
Lowry |
| Roy |
Redick |
Simmons |
Sefolosha |
| Thomas |
Shelden Williams |
Splitter |
Shawne Williams |
|
|
M. Williams |
|
Tier 4 goes forever. That is what will make draft very interesting. If a player who a top-10 team, including the Sonics, goes before they pick, it would make sense to trade down in exchange for a first-round pick next season in a draft that is predicted to be as good as any we have seen.
Redick Question Marks
Posted on June 13 | permalink
The big headlines of the draft are about J.J. Redick and his arrest for a DWI. However, in regards to impact on the draft the bigger story is that Redick has cancelled workouts with Orlando, Boston and now Minnesota as well.
Why would he cancel these workouts? There are murmurs that Redick has injured his back in the workouts and needs some time off. That would mean that he is going to miss the week of second visits, often when teams match certain players head-to-head on purpose.
The other theory is that he has received a promise from someone, but that would not explain why he cancelled workouts with Minnesota, who sits at #6 on the board.
A New NBA?
Posted on June 12 | permalink
I told you that I was going to breakdown the NBA draft prospects by tier for you on this exclusive SUPERSONICS.COM draft blog. However, as I have talked with more and more NBA people there is no consensus. That is because a larger debate is taking place inside the NBA.
Is the NBA evolving into a different game? Are teams going to need to have different types of players on the floor than they have in the past?
Those are the questions that are circulating the NBA circles at the current time. The impact of this discussion on the NBA Draft is astronomical.
In the old school, NBA teams were built with a traditional point guard, a 6-4 to 6-5 shooting guard, a 6-6 to 6-8 small forward, a big-body power forward who could bang down low and a 7-footer in the middle to clog the lane.
There is a strong feeling around the league that the game is changing and changing fast. The new form of the NBA is a lineup of two long, quick 6-10 guys and two 6-7 to 6-8 guys with a point guard.
This is a world of Josh Howard, Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson, Rashard Lewis and players that have the versatility to move from one position to another.
Obviously if you have a Shaq or a Yao Ming than you are going to force teams to adapt you, but those players are not coming down the pike any longer. Greg Oden is going to be the #1 pick in next year’s draft and then there is a serious drought in dominant big men.
The immediate impact of this paradigm switch is that certain players are getting hotter and hotter as the draft nears.
Brandon Roy has shown the ability to play and defend any of three positions and if the new NBA is about interchangeable parts then Roy becomes even more valuable. Today at Sonics Draft HQ we spotlight Ronnie Brewer. Brewer is a player that has been projected around 12 to 16 in the NBA draft, but for teams that believe there has been a philosophical change in the game he may be a top 10 pick.
The issue really comes down to what a team is asking out of each position on the floor and how they build their teams accordingly.
Specifically to the Sonics, is Rashard Lewis going to become more of a four? Is Wilcox going to play some five? Does Damien Wilkins become more valuable because he may be able to play the one, two or three? Do the Sonics have enough pieces that are interchangeable or is that a focus in the draft?
Getting to Know Gordie
Posted on June 8 | permalink
Yesterday, the Sonics named Gordie Chiesa as their new assistant coach. Chiesa is a fantastic fit for the Sonics current staff. Chiesa is cut right out of the Dwane Casey mold. This man is a basketball junkie.
With Ralph Lewis in just his third season in the NBA and Jack Sikma and Detlef Schrempf still developing their coaching skills, Chiesa brings a world of experience.
He was an assistant on the Rick Pitino-coached Providence teams before becoming their head coach. He worked on the Utah Jazz staff that went to two NBA Finals and had such prodigious battles with the Sonics.
I covered the Utah Jazz for six years while Chiesa was an assistant for Coach Jerry Sloan. Chiesa conducts a terrific shootaround breakdown for his team. His attention to detail is unequaled. He watches tape with the most minute of microscopes.
I was very fortunate that at an early stage in my career Chiesa was willing to teach me about the game. His favorite saying is “the mind-body connection.” He was constantly reminding me not to forget the “mind-body connection.” He also possesses a very subtle and cutting sense of humor.
More importantly, Chiesa the parent and person is better than the coach. Last season, Chiesa got a huge raise and moved his family from Utah where he was working with the Jazz to New Jersey and worked for the Nets. Chiesa had moved himself into the financial upper echelon of NBA assistant coaches.
However, Chiesa went to New Jersey with one impression of what his job was going to be under Lawrence Frank. Through preseason it became clear that he and Frank differed in how he could be used most efficiently. No hard feelings - just a working relationship that wasn’t going to prosper.
At this point Chiesa decided to step away. Stepping away from an NBA job is unheard of in this world. Leaving hundreds of thousands of dollars on the table without any guarantee of a job is unheard of in this world. However, it was clear to Chiesa that the move to New Jersey was taking a toll on his two boys, both high-school aged.
He walked away. Left the NBA and spent the year watching the game and off an NBA staff for the first time since 1989.
This is a man of incredible integrity and amazing vision of his own world. That is the quality the Sonics just added to their organization. That's not to mention a brilliant basketball Xs and Os mind, which is a perfect compliment to a staff of Lewis, Schrempf and Sikma.
Sonics Strategy Breakdown
Posted on June 8 | permalink
Part of draft preparation for an NBA team is not only evaluating the prospects but understanding the landscape of the draft. This is a two-part process. First, a team must figure out how prospective talent fits to their team and then how the league values your pick.
Let’s take a look and try to do this for the Sonics organization. As excited as everyone becomes this time of year about the prospects it can not be forgotten that most of these players are young and inexperienced. Moreover, most of them aren’t ready to contribute immediately.
If the Sonics draft Shelden Williams, would he actually play in front of Nick Collison or Chris Wilcox? If the Sonics draft a young raw but potentially outstanding 7-footer Patrick O’ Bryant, would he get a chance to develop on a team that already has Robert Swift and Johan Petro? Is Randy Foye better than Luke Ridnour?
Assuming the Sonics are able to re-sign Chris Wilcox the Sonics have a solid nine-player rotation already established.
Point Guard: Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson
Shooting Guard: Ray Allen, Damien Wilkins
Small Forward: Rashard Lewis, Damien Wilkins
Power Forward: Chris Wilcox, Nick Collison
Center: Robert Swift and Johan Petro
Interestingly, the one thing that may be lacking in that group is shooting. Late in the season, the Sonics were not capable of spreading the floor with four shooters the way they have been able to in the past. Thus, if a great shooter like a J.J. Redick drops to #10, do the Sonics pull the trigger? At the same time, how does he get minutes at the shooting guard with this roster?
The other issue confronting the Sonics front office is how hard it is to win with young players in the NBA. Look at the Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks. The cores of these franchises are older players who understand the grind of 82 games, who understand how to play against the best in the world.
It is hard for me to believe the Sonics are going to become dramatically better with the addition of another player 22 or younger. In addition, the Sonics are still planning on adding Mickael Gelabale next season.
Gelabale, 23, is an insane athlete. The Sonics are very excited about his prospects. According to scouts around the league his one weakness is passivity, so I wouldn’t anticipate him coming to Seattle and burning the house down. Instead, it will take some time for him to assimilate. However, he may be the answer to the backup small forward position, further limiting available spots for this year's draft picks.
Therefore, the real evaluation the Sonics must embark upon is how the league values the 10th pick and what it would take for the Sonics to move forward in the draft to get a player who can make an immediate impact.
From my perspective one of the two aforementioned scenarios seems most likely. The Sonics have a roster that could allow them to move up in the draft for a player they greatly desire.
It is going to make for an interesting three weeks leading to draft day. Do the Sonics find a player they believe can break into their rotation? Will that player be there at 10 on draft day? If not, how much are they willing to part with to get him? If he is not there, is there a suitor for the #10 pick that values it appropriately?
Those are the storylines that will keep us busy for the next three weeks.
Tomorrow we will focus on where the talent breaks exist on the big draft board.
Opening Day in Orlando
Posted on June 7 | permalink
Hello Sonics fans. The draft is three weeks away and the coverage is starting on SUPERSONICS.COM. I am looking forward to bringing you daily blogs about the draft. In addition, we will have audio breakdowns of the top 15 players in the draft from Sonics Director of Player Personnel Dave Pendergraft.
As the draft gets closer I will follow every rumor. I will keep you update to date regularly here at SUPERSONICS.COM. For those of you who have joined me for the draft over the last eight years it will be a lot of the same, plus a brand new level.
Finally, look for a very exciting announcement about our draft day coverage.
There is a pattern to the drafts and how you should follow the information. The headliner right now is the Orlando Pre-Draft Camp. Pendergraft 
gave us an audio report on the first workouts and which players thrived.
Most of the top draft picks have declined to work at Orlando. Look for one or two players at Orlando to break into the top 15 of the draft. It happens every year.
In addition, for the next two weeks keep an eye on who works out where and then who goes back someplace for a second time.
Finally, in the last three days before the draft it becomes almost impossible to decipher what is true and what is smokescreen. Therefore, the key is remember the words you hear for the next two weeks they may have more validity than what you hear in the final days.
Tomorrow I will outline what I believe the Sonics draft strategy should be and we will get another audio report from Orlando from a member of the Sonics front office.
