SECAUCUS, NJ, July 2, 2007 -- So, Greg Oden was the clear choice for Kevin Pritchard and the Blazers at No. 1. And most people agree that he's the best long-term selection for Portland.

But does that mean Oden's the clear favorite to win 2007-08 Rookie of the Year?

Of course not. Of the last seven Rookie of the Year winners, only one (LeBron James) was the No. 1 pick. And in the opinion of the Rookie Report, top picks are going to be 1-for-8 after this season.

The following is a projection of how the final Rookie Rankings might look next April, taking into account each player's skills, how ready they are to contribute right away, and how well they fit into their new team.

And of course, the rankings are just the opinion of the Rookie Report, which welcomes all questions and comments.

Stats are from the player's last season in college.

The Projected Top 10
1. Kevin Durant, F, Seattle
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
25.8 11.1 1.3 1.89 1.91 .473 .404 .816
Drafted: 2
If Rashard Lewis doesn't re-sign with the Sonics, then Durant is the clear favorite for ROY. Who else will score points for Seattle? Seriously, if Lewis doesn't come back, Durant could have the highest scoring average for a rookie since Allen Iverson's 23.5 PPG in 1996-97.

2. Greg Oden, C, Portland
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
15.7 9.6 0.7 0.56 3.28 .616 -- .628
Drafted: 1
Even if Durant runs away with the rookie scoring title and grabs his share of boards, there will still be a debate because of Oden's defensive presence. He'll block a ton of shots and affect a ton more. But Oden will have a better supporting cast in Portland, so his scoring won't be needed.

3. Mike Conley, G, Memphis
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
11.3 3.4 6.1 2.23 0.26 .518 .304 .694
Drafted: 4
Conley should be handed the reins from Day 1 in Memphis and will likely lead all rookies in assists. He won't be able to get to the bucket quite as easily as he did at Ohio State, so his field goal percentage should take a bit of a hit. Still, if the Grizzlies are going to run, Conley's numbers will benefit.

4. Al Horford, F-C, Atlanta
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
13.2 9.5 2.2 0.74 1.84 .608 .000 .644
Drafted: 3
Horford should immediately jump ahead of Shelden Williams in the depth chart and has a good chance of averaging close to a double-double for the Hawks.

5. Corey Brewer, G-F, Minnesota
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
13.2 4.7 2.9 1.86 0.41 .478 .336 .723
Drafted: 7
Like Durant with Lewis, how Brewer does in his rookie year could depend on whether or not Kevin Garnett is still with the Wolves. Either way, Brewer should put up solid all-around numbers and be one of the best defensive players among rookies.

6. Acie Law, G, Atlanta
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
18.1 3.3 5.0 1.15 0.03 .500 .458 .778
Drafted: 11
Law probably won't start over Speedy Claxton right away, but he should get plenty of burn all season long. He should get open looks when the defense focuses on Joe Johnson.

7. Julian Wright, F, New Orleans
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
12.0 7.8 2.2 1.45 1.29 .549 .231 .613
Drafted: 13
If Desmond Mason doesn't return, Wright could very well be a starter in New Orleans from the start with his competition being Rasual Butler. His numbers probably won't tell the whole story, as he'll asked to provide energy and defense.

8. Joakim Noah, F-C, Chicago
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
12.0 8.4 2.3 1.13 1.80 .607 1.000 .663
Drafted: 9
Noah is another guy who's numbers won't tell the whole story, but he should have a spot in the rotation right away, and he'll grab some boards, block some shots and set some screens for the Chicago guards.

9. Jeff Green, F, Seattle
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
14.3 6.4 3.2 0.81 1.16 .513 .375 .775
Drafted: 5
If Lewis stays in Seattle, Green provides some offense off the bench. If not, he and Durant could both be starting. Either way, Green might be able to give the Sonics some time at the four in addition to the three.

10. Jason Smith, C-F, Philadelphia
PPG RPG APG SPG BPG FG% 3P% FT%
16.8 10.1 1.9 0.53 1.57 .579 .000 .770
Drafted: 20
The Sixers are looking to bring back Joe Smith, but he'll have other suitors. If he goes elsewhere, Jason Smith could be looking at a lot of playing time in his rookie year. If not, the Report says the Sixers should just go with "Smith" on the back of their jerseys instead of using the "Jo." and "Ja." That's what the numbers are for. Anyway, the rookie's skills could compliment Samuel Dalembert and Stephen Hunter well. Of course, the more inside-oriented Herbert Hill could also get a shot at major minutes.

10 More Who Should be Rotation Regulars
Morris Almond, G, Utah
The Jazz need exactly what Almond can provide, and he's NBA-ready, so he'll get his chance.

Javaris Crittenton, G, L.A. Lakers
Crittenton will likely share point guard duties with Jordan Farmar, unless the Lakers pick up a point in free agency.

Glen Davis, F, Boston
The Celtics are a little thin up front, so Big Baby should get plenty of minutes off the bench.

Herbert Hill, F-C, Philadelphia
Hill and Jason Smith provide different skill sets, but there may only be room for one of them in the rotation to start out. Still, both should get a chance to play at some point.

Rodney Stuckey, G, Detroit
Lindsey Hunter might not be back and the Pistons might look to deal Flip Murray, so Stuckey should be the first guard off the bench right away.

Al Thornton, F, L.A. Clippers
At this point, Thornton is behind Quinton Ross and Corey Maggette in the depth chart, so it's unclear where he fits in. But he's got the talent to be a contributor on the offensive end right away.

Sean Williams, F-C, New Jersey
Lawrence Frank can be tough on youngsters, but he may need Williams more than your typical rookie.

Brandan Wright, F, Golden State
As with Marco Belinelli, the Rookie Report needs some time to see how Wright fits in with the Warriors. Predicting what Don Nelson is going to do with a new player is not easy.

Yi Jianlian, F, Milwaukee
As the Bucks just try to get a meeting with their first-round pick, Yi is finally getting some game action in. Your guess is as good as the Report's when it comes to how this one will turn out.

Nick Young, G, Washington
The Wizards are trying to bring back DeShawn Stevenson. If they don't, the door opens for Young to become the first guard off the bench, or perhaps even a starter.

Got beef with the rankings or have a comment or question for the Rookie Report? Send the Report an e-mail or take it to the Rookie of the Year message board.