2013 Free Agency Preview Part IV: Power Forwards
HOUSTON - In free agency, the name of the game is value. Give $15 million a year to one of the ten best players on the planet and the deal will likely turn out to be an absolute bargain. But hand half that amount to an average player who just so happens to be coming off a career year and you may quickly find yourself stuck with the kind of cumbersome contract that kills flexibility and stifles a club’s ability to improve going forward.
Such is the dance that takes place between players, agents and general managers every summer in the NBA. Free agency offers teams a unique opportunity to improve their rosters in a hurry. But buyers beware because it can just as easily hamstring squads who roll the dice on the wrong player at the wrong price for the wrong number of years. Figuring out the proper price tag for those rare, precious and irreplaceable blue chip guys is easy; for everyone else tough, smart and calculated decisions must be made to ensure teams get enough bang for their free agent buck.
That is the key concept to keep in mind as Rockets.com rolls out our annual, position-by-position breakdown of the players available on the free agent market. Today in Part 4 of our free agency primer we’re taking a statistical and subjective look at some of the top power forwards who are hitting the open market this summer (shot location statistics courtesy of HoopData.com, shot charts courtesy of NBA.com and Synergy stats courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology). Click here if you missed Part 1 in which we examined the free agent market for point guards, here for Part 2 and a look at the two-guard crop, and here for Part 3 and a breakdown of the available small forwards. The fifth and final installment will arrive early next week.
Josh Smith (UFA)
The basics: 17.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.8 bpg, 1.2 spg, .465 FG%, .517 FT%, .303 3FG%, 17.82 PER
Advanced stats: 13.6 rebound rate (38th among qualifying PFs), 21.3 defensive rebound rate (22nd), 5.8 offensive rebound rate (61st), 17.2 assist rate (7th), 12.1 turnover rate (51st)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 77.6% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 40.3% (PF average: 39.9%), 10-15 feet: 24.0% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 33% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Post-ups: .736 points per possession (34th percentile), Spot-ups: .788 ppp (25th percentile), Transition: 1.131 ppp (52nd percentile), Isolations including passes: .822 ppp (54th percentile), Cuts: 1.256 ppp (67th percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: 1.037 ppp (69th percentile)
Defense: Post-ups: .686 ppp (85th percentile), As big defender dealing with the PNR ball-handler: .794 ppp (47th percentile), As big defender dealing with PNR roll man: .942 ppp (35th percentile), Spot-ups: .961 ppp (57th percentile), Isolation: .647 ppp (86th percentile)
Josh Smith 2012-13 shot chart:
Equal parts electric and confounding – welcome to the Josh Smith story. There is no denying the talent and production the 27-year-old brings to the table, that’s for sure. Smith is downright beastly in the open court and an absolute monster finishing around the rim. He’s a gifted passer, dynamic shot blocker and is versatile enough to rank as one of the best wing defenders in the game – Smith limited opposing small forwards to a puny 8.9 PER this season according to 82games.com, though the fact power forwards put up a robust mark of 17.3 is at least a trifle concerning. And therein lies the rub with Josh Smith: He is a very, very good player yet one with a tendency to leave you wanting, and expecting, more. Take his oft-discussed shot selection for instance. Smith possesses the ability to bully smaller players, especially on the left block, and blow by bigger defenders ill equipped to handle his first step. Yet for some reason he attempted nearly four long twos per game (admittedly, he reduced that number from the ghastly 6 per game he took the year before) and launched more than 200 three-pointers on the season despite being a career 28 percent shooter from beyond the arc. Transform half of those possessions into more efficient options and Smith becomes a surefire All-Star. Heck, even with the occasionally head-scratching decision-making he perpetually hovers around that sacred territory anyway. Now nine years into his career, it might be unrealistic to expect much to change in that regard. Even if it never does, Smith still brings so much to the table. But should he receive a max contract this summer, some of those tweaks must be made in order to ensure Smith delivers maximum value in return.
David West (UFA)
The basics: 17.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, .9 bpg, 1.0 spg, .498 FG%, .768 FT%, .211 3FG%, 20.15 PER
Advanced stats: 12.9 rebound rate (41st among qualifying PFs), 18.8 defensive rebound rate (35th), 6.8 offensive rebound rate (56th), 14.0 assist rate (12th), 10.3 turnover rate (31st)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 68.7% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 46.9% (PF average: 39.9%), 10-15 feet: 45.4% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 46% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Post-ups: .961 points per possession (85th percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: .963 ppp (51st percentile), Spot-ups: .837 ppp (34th percentile), Transition: 1.298 ppp (85th percentile), Isolations including passes: .857 ppp (62nd percentile), Cuts: 1.35 ppp (85th percentile)
Defense: Post-ups: .906 ppp (35th percentile), As big defender dealing with the PNR ball-handler: .719 ppp (72nd percentile), As big defender dealing with PNR roll man: .952 ppp (32nd percentile), Spot-ups: .76 ppp (92nd percentile), Isolation: .5 ppp (98th percentile)
David West 2012-13 shot chart:
Now two years removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL, West delivered one of the finest seasons of his career when taking into account everything he accomplished on both sides of the floor. West was, and continues to be in the postseason, instrumental to the Pacers’ offense, utilizing his passing, post play and pick-and-pop game to help make the Indiana offense flow. And though he surely benefits from being a part of the most stingy, suffocating defense in the league, West pulled his weight on that end of the floor as well, putting his smarts, length and brute strength to good use, especially with regard to his textbook positioning while defending pick-and-rolls and spot-ups. Add to that package the fact West has a well-earned reputation as being a terrific locker room presence who commands respect from his peers and there’s an awful lot to like about everything he brings to the table. The one caveat: the Xavier product will be 33-years-old by the time next season begins so rightfully admiring teams would be wise to take that into consideration if West is on the prowl for a long-term contract.
Paul Millsap (UFA)
The basics: 14.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.0 bpg, 1.3 spg, .490 FG%, .742 FT%, .333 3FG%, 19.89 PER
Advanced stats: 13.7 rebound rate (37th among qualifying PFs), 18.8 defensive rebound rate (35th), 8.6 offensive rebound rate (34th), 14.7 assist rate (10th), 10.1 turnover rate (26th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 68.8% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 37.5% (PF average: 39.9%), 10-15 feet: 47.7% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 39% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Post-ups: .849 points per possession (62nd percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: .923 ppp (41st percentile), Spot-ups: .861 ppp (38th percentile), Transition: 1.217 ppp (72nd percentile), Isolations including passes: .903 ppp (72nd percentile), Cuts: 1.087 ppp (31st percentile)
Defense: Post-ups: .804 ppp (58th percentile), As big defender dealing with the PNR ball-handler: .80 ppp (45th percentile), As big defender dealing with PNR roll man: .797 ppp (63rd percentile), Spot-ups: 1.007 ppp (44th percentile), Isolation: .815 ppp (51st percentile)
Paul Millsap 2012-13 shot chart:
Many of Millsap’s numbers may have decreased this season following the career year he produced in 2011-12, but that should do little to deter the interest the 28-year-old is sure to attract this summer. That’s because Millsap still showed himself to be a tremendously useful and versatile player capable of producing in a variety of ways. He’s undersized for his position but he finishes at the rim, gets to the free throw line, is a good rebounder, terrific passer and a player who also knows how to find openings within opposing defenses via savvy, subtle movements off the ball. And though he’s not a three-point shooter, one look at his shot chart should make it clear that it’s not at all unreasonable to wonder whether or not he can become a legitimate threat from the corners – he knocked down more than 50 percent of his long twos from that vicinity; why not take another step or two back and really give defenses something to worry about? On the defensive end, Millsap’s lack of size is more of an issue; power forwards produced a rather prolific PER of 17.4 against him according to 82games.com. It should also be noted, however, that the Louisiana Tech product possesses quite the propensity for pilfering; his steal rate has placed him at or near the top of the forward rankings in that category for years.
Andrei Kirilenko (UFA – Player option)
The basics: 12.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.0 bpg, 1.5 spg, .507 FG%, .752 FT%, .292 3FG%, 17.67 PER
Advanced stats: 10.2 rebound rate (26th among qualifying SFs), 15.1 defensive rebound rate (29th), 5.6 offensive rebound rate (23rd), 18.3 assist rate (11th), 12.3 turnover rate (57th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 66.4% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 40.0% (PF average: 39.9%), 10-15 feet: 18.2% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 35% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: .949 ppp (55th percentile), Transition: 1.431 ppp (95th percentile), Isolations including passes: .541 ppp (11th percentile), Cuts: 1.354 ppp (85th percentile)
Defense: Spot-ups: .752 ppp (92nd percentile), Pick-and-roll ball-handler: .764 ppp (56th percentile), As big defender dealing with PNR ball handler: .87 ppp (26th percentile), Isolation: .82 ppp (48th percentile), Post-ups: .818 ppp (55th percentile), Off screens: 1.0 ppp (27th percentile)
Andrei Kirilenko 2012-13 shot chart:
While it’s probably cheating to list Kirilenko among the power forward group – his offensive production was virtually indistinguishable whether playing the three or the four, but he was clearly more effective defending wings rather than power forwards – the fact of the matter is he has value wherever you put him due to his remarkable versatility and ability to contribute multiple ways at both forward spots. His go-go gadget arms make him a nightmare to shoot over and a constant threat to collect blocks from behind and steals while playing the passing lanes. He’s also a wonderfully creative passer – sometimes too creative, to which his turnover rate will attest – good ball handler and a strong finisher around the rim. What he’s not is a floor spacer or physical – his lanky frame allows him to get pushed around on occasion – but the 32-year-old Russian is so smart, so long and so versatile that he remains a plus player on both sides of the court despite his deficiencies.
Carl Landry (UFA-P)
The basics: 10.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, .8 apg, .4 bpg, .4 spg, .540 FG%, .817 FT%, 17.60 PER
Advanced stats: 14.2 rebound rate (30th among qualifying PFs), 17.3 defensive rebound rate (43rd), 10.9 offensive rebound rate (19th), 7.2 assist rate (53rd), 12.7 turnover rate (59th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 70.8% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 38.6% (PF average: 39.9%), 10-15 feet: 45.8% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 38% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Post-ups: .875 points per possession (69th percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: .981 ppp (55th percentile), Spot-ups: .857 ppp (37th percentile), Transition: 1.652 ppp (100th percentile), Isolations including passes: .537 ppp (11th percentile), Cuts: 1.367 ppp (87th percentile)
Defense: Post-ups: .875 ppp (42nd percentile), As big defender dealing with the PNR ball-handler: .794 ppp (47th percentile), As big defender dealing with PNR roll man: .883 ppp (47th percentile), Spot-ups: 1.243 ppp (6th percentile), Isolation: .732 ppp (72nd percentile)
Carl Landry 2012-13 shot chart:
The song remains the same with Carl Landry: If offensive punch is what you’re after from the power forward position, he can and will certainly deliver the goods – just don’t expect too much at the other end of the floor. Despite being undersized at the four-spot, the 29-year-old is elite around the rim, a beast on the offensive glass and he has an uncanny knack for drawing fouls. He can also pile up points in the low-post where he’s able to put his impressive burst and fancy footwork to good use. Landry even has a mid-range pick-and-pop game that must be respected, though he still has a tendency to take too many long twos. On the negative side, the Purdue product tends to be a bit of a black hole – despite posting a career high assist rate he still finished in the bottom third in that category for players at his position – and is turnover prone as well. Defense, meanwhile, has never been Landry’s strong suit with his lack of size and tendency to find himself out of position proving to be particularly problematic. Those issues probably preclude Landry from being a quality starting option for a playoff club, but for teams in search of scoring off the bench, few can deliver the kind of boost he provides.
Marreese Speights (UFA – Player Option)
The basics: 8.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, .6 apg, .7 bpg, .3 spg, .445 FG%, .771 FT%, 17.35 PER
Advanced stats: 17.3 rebound rate (14th among qualifying PFs), 22.3 defensive rebound rate (15th), 12.7 offensive rebound rate (8th), 6.0 assist rate (67th), 10.2 turnover rate (28th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 58.3% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 22.9% (PF average: 39.9%), 10-15 feet: 41.9% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 50% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Post-ups: .646 points per possession (19th percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: .974 ppp (53rd percentile), Spot-ups: 1.016 ppp (67th percentile), Isolations including passes: .833 ppp (57th percentile), Cuts: 1.012 ppp (20th percentile)
Defense: Post-ups: .833 ppp (51st percentile), As big defender dealing with the PNR ball-handler: .868 ppp (26th percentile), As big defender dealing with PNR roll man: .909 ppp (41st percentile), Spot-ups: .909 ppp (69th percentile), Isolation: .848 ppp (42nd percentile)
Marreese Speights 2012-13 shot chart:
Through his first five years in the league, Marreese Speights has left little doubt regarding his ability to play pick-and-pop and hit the glass. He’s a strong rebounder, especially on the offensive end, and his jump-shooting skills are elite for his position. Beyond that, however, the other facets of his game have yet to evolve enough to enable him to be anything more than a role player off the bench. He rarely passes the ball and since so much of his offense is derived from long twos, his true shooting percentage predictably places him near the bottom of players at his position - of course that could change in a hurry if he dedicated himself to extending his range beyond the three-point line. At the other end of the floor, Speights has size but also limited mobility; the latter trait pairing particularly poorly with a defensive work rate that tends to wax and wane. Since Speights is still just 25-years-old, there remains time for him to improve upon these trouble spots. But improvement is something the Florida product has not yet done much of since making his NBA debut in 2008.
Tyler Hansbrough (RFA)
The basics: 7.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, .4 apg, .2 bpg, .4 spg, .434 FG%, .720 FT%, 15.35 PER
Advanced stats: 15.2 rebound rate (23rd among qualifying PFs), 17.0 defensive rebound rate (46th), 13.4 offensive rebound rate (5th), 5.5 assist rate (69th), 11.9 turnover rate (48th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 57.6% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 34.9% (PF average: 39.9%), 10-15 feet: 19.0% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 33% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Post-ups: .816 points per possession (51st percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: .863 ppp (29th percentile), Spot-ups: .405 ppp (2nd percentile), Isolations including passes: .773 ppp (43rd percentile), Cuts: 1.032 ppp (22nd percentile)
Defense: Post-ups: .568 ppp (95th percentile), As big defender dealing with the PNR ball-handler: .768 ppp (55th percentile), As big defender dealing with PNR roll man: .462 ppp (96th percentile), Spot-ups: .778 ppp (90th percentile), Isolation: .831 ppp (46th percentile)
Tyler Hansbrough 2012-13 shot chart:
There’s no questioning or missing Hansbrough’s hustle and effort level on the floor – he’s a feisty, first class agitator who drives opponents crazy with his manic style of play. What is fair to call into question, however, is the end result of all that frenzied comportment. The 27-year-old is an outstanding offensive rebounder with a gift for getting himself to the line. He’s also made big strides defensively over the course of his career despite being short-armed and undersized. Though he, like teammate David West, undoubtedly benefits from playing on the team with the No. 1 defense in the NBA, his metrics on that end of the floor are too good to simply be summarily dismissed as some sort of coattail-clinging statistical fluke. Not so easily overlooked, however, are his shortcomings on both the defensive boards and offensive decision-making. He rarely passes when the ball finds his hands, he does not finish well around the rim (or from anywhere else on the floor for that matter) and he turns the ball over far too often. His energy and the spark he brings off the bench can be contagious and are to be applauded. But it’s hard to see him ever holding down a more significant role than the one he currently handles until his offensive awareness undergoes an overhaul.
Elton Brand (UFA)
The basics: 7.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.3 bpg, .7 spg, .473 FG%, .710 FT%, 15.19 PER
Advanced stats: 15.7 rebound rate (21st among qualifying PFs), 21.5 defensive rebound rate (18th), 9.7 offensive rebound rate (25th), 10.8 assist rate (24th), 8.8 turnover rate (9th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 60.0% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 49.3% (PF average: 39.9%), 10-15 feet: 39.0% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 43% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Post-ups: .92 points per possession (75th percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: .976 ppp (54th percentile), Spot-ups: .762 ppp (22nd percentile), Isolations including passes: .543 ppp (11th percentile), Cuts: 1.104 ppp (35th percentile)
Defense: Post-ups: .801 ppp (59th percentile), As big defender dealing with the PNR ball-handler: .836 ppp (33rd percentile), As big defender dealing with PNR roll man: .882 ppp (48th percentile), Spot-ups: .959 ppp (57th percentile), Isolation: .735 ppp (71st percentile)
Elton Brand 2012-13 shot chart:
After posting a pair of successive strong seasons in Philadelphia, Brand’s productivity dipped this year in Dallas, seemingly signaling that he has now reached the stage of his impressive career that demands (or at least strongly suggests) that his next move should be to seek out a reserve role on a contender that can suitably use his savvy, smarts and experience in mutual pursuit of a title. The 34-year-old’s pick-and-pop game wasn’t up to his usual standards this past season but he still scored well out of the post, did good work on the boards and remains a clever passer who rarely turns the ball over. He experienced a defensive drop-off, too, but he’s such a smart team defender that it’s hardly a stretch to assume he can still be effective assuming he’s able to carve out the right role on a team in need of a big body who can consistently give them 10-15 quality minutes on a regular basis.
Antawn Jamison (UFA)
The basics: 9.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, .7 apg, .3 bpg, .4 spg, .464 FG%, .361 3FG%, .691 FT%, 15.39 PER
Advanced stats: 12.2 rebound rate (50th among qualifying PFs), 16.6 defensive rebound rate (50th), 7.5 offensive rebound rate (49th), 6.8 assist rate (59th), 7.2 turnover rate (6th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 67.6% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 38.1% (PF average: 39.9%), 10-15 feet: 36.4% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 42% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: .996 ppp (62nd percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: 1.167 ppp (85th percentile), Cuts: 1.245 ppp (64th percentile), Transition: 1.194 ppp (67th percentile)
Defense: Spot-ups: 1.054 ppp (32nd percentile), Post-ups: .897 ppp (37th percentile), As big defender dealing with the PNR ball-handler: .916 ppp (18th percentile), Isolation: 1.172 ppp (5th percentile)
Antawn Jamison 2012-13 shot chart:
Give Jamison credit: He keeps putting the ball in the net while paying no mind to the onset of old age (at least relative to NBA standards). Unfortunately, he also long since stopped paying attention to inconsequential little trifles like defense as well. The 36-year-old continued to score at a pretty good clip this past season, primarily due to the fact he posted the second-best true shooting percentage of his 15-year career. He gave the Lakers some good minutes off the bench in his role as a stretch-four on the offensive end and he almost never turned the ball over, but his inability to rebound or generate much in the way of resistance defensively undermined many of the positives he was able to generate with his scoring. Given his age and the fact that’s been the book on Jamison for several years now, it’s awfully hard to find reasons to expect anything to change in that regard going forward.
Earl Clark (UFA)
The basics: 7.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.1 apg, .7 bpg, .6 spg, .440 FG%, .337 3-PT%, .697 FT%, 12.47 PER
Advanced stats: 13.1 rebound rate (40th among qualifying PFs), 19.1 defensive rebound rate (35th), 6.8 offensive rebound rate (56th), 11.9 assist rate (20th), 11.3 turnover rate (43rd)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 66.1% (PFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ‘12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 27.3% (PF average: 40.3%), 10-15 feet: 27.8% (PF average: 41.4%), 16-23 feet: 39% (PF average: 39.5%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: .811 ppp (28th percentile), Cuts: 1.343 ppp (84th percentile), Transition: 1.2 ppp (68th percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: 1.203 ppp (89th percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Spot-ups: .963 ppp (57th percentile), Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .907 ppp (21st percentile), Isolation: .936 ppp (22nd percentile), Off screen: .901 ppp (49th percentile)
Earl Clark 2012-13 shot chart:
The good news: After having hit just two three-pointers during the first three years of his career, Earl Clark knocked down 35 from distance this season while posting a connect rate of nearly 34 percent – not too shabby for someone who had previously displayed no long range aptitude whatsoever. It will be imperative for Clark to keep progressing in that area because it’s no stretch to suggest his future NBA career may well hinge upon his ability to become a fully-realized stretch four. He doesn’t get to the free throw line, his rebounding is nothing to write home about and though he seemingly has the physical tools to be a plus defender, the results he’s produced on that end of the floor haven’t been particularly pretty up to this point. So while it was good to see the 25-year old show real improvement this past season, he’s going to need to take another significant step forward if he’s to carve out a consistent role.
Other notables: Lou Amundson (UFA), DeJaun Blair (UFA), Dante Cunningham (UFA – Team option), Austin Daye (RFA), Boris Diaw (UFA – Player option), Ivan Johnson (RFA), James Johnson (RFA), Jon Leuer (RFA), Rashard Lewis (UFA – Player option), Kenyon Martin (UFA), Jason Maxiell (UFA), Josh McRoberts (UFA), Lamar Odom (UFA), Jeff Pendergraph (RFA), Jason Smith (UFA – Team option), Anthony Tolliver (UFA), Charlie Villanueva (UFA – Player option), Chris Wilcox (UFA)
