2013 Free Agency Preview Part III: Small Forwards
HOUSTON - In free agency, the name of the game is value. Give $15 million a year to one of the ten best players on the planet and the deal will likely turn out to be an absolute bargain. But hand half that amount to an average player who just so happens to be coming off a career year and you may quickly find yourself stuck with the kind of cumbersome contract that kills flexibility and stifles a club’s ability to improve going forward.
Such is the dance that takes place between players, agents and general managers every summer in the NBA. Free agency offers teams a unique opportunity to improve their rosters in a hurry. But buyers beware because it can just as easily hamstring squads who roll the dice on the wrong player at the wrong price for the wrong number of years. Figuring out the proper price tag for those rare, precious and irreplaceable blue chip guys is easy; for everyone else tough, smart and calculated decisions must be made to ensure teams get enough bang for their free agent buck.
That is the key concept to keep in mind as Rockets.com rolls out our annual, position-by-position breakdown of the players available on the free agent market. Today in Part 3 of our free agency primer we’re taking a statistical and subjective look at some of the top small forwards who are hitting the open market this summer (shot location statistics courtesy of HoopData.com, shot charts courtesy of NBA.com and Synergy stats courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology). Click here if you missed Part 1 in which we examined the free agent market for point guards, and here for Part 2 for a look at the two-guard crop. We’ll break down the talent available at the other positions in the days to come.
Paul Pierce (UFA-Team option)
The basics: 18.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 4.8 apg, .4 bpg, 1.1 spg, .436 FG%, .380 3-PT%, .787 FT%, 19.14 PER
Advanced stats: 11.2 rebound rate (18th among qualifying SFs), 19.7 defensive rebound rate (11th), 2.1 offensive rebound rate (60th), 19.9 assist rate (8th), 11.5 turnover rate (50th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 62.0% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 23.3%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 50.4% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 40% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Pick-and-rolls including passes: .97 points per possession (81st percentile), Isolations including passes: .932 ppp (78th percentile), Spot-ups: 1.09 ppp (80th percentile), Off screens: .952 ppp (66th percentile), Transition: 1.069 ppp (40th percentile), Post-ups: .95 ppp (81st percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Spot-ups: .829 ppp (85th percentile), Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .752 ppp (61st percentile), Isolation: .66 ppp (84th percentile), Off screen: .701 ppp (81st percentile), Post-ups: .763 ppp (71st percentile)
Paul Pierce 2012-13 shot chart:
Given his status as a Celtics lifer and one of the best players Boston has borne witness to this millennium, it’s awfully difficult to even imagine Pierce in anything other than Celtic green. But if the future Hall of Famer does hit the open market this summer (and that’s a big if given reports that the Celtics would actually gain little by declining to pick up the team option on his contract) there will undoubtedly be plenty of suitors eager to bring his championship experience and still-effective skill set into the fold. Yes, Pierce will be 36-years-old by the time next season starts, but it takes but a mere glance at his base numbers and metrics to realize he remains one of the better small forwards in the game today. The 15-year vet can still make plays for himself and others, shoot from distance and use his guile and herky-jerky game to get to the free throw line in bulk. He’s a plus rebounder and though his defense has shown some small signs of slippage over the last two years, he continues to deliver impressive dividends on that end of the floor as well. Father Time is going to chase down Pierce eventually, but the former Kansas Jayhawk still seems to be a step or two ahead, and as such, seems certain to be a very productive, positive performer for at least another year.
Kyle Korver (UFA)
The basics: 10.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, .5 bpg, .9 spg, .461 FG%, .457 3-PT%, .787 FT%, 13.93 PER
Advanced stats: 7.4 rebound rate (53rd among qualifying SFs), 13.5 defensive rebound rate (37th), 1.2 offensive rebound rate (67th), 17.2 assist rate (17th), 8.2 turnover rate (13th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 54.2% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 16.7%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 46.7% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 47% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Off screen: 1.034 ppp (77th percentile), Spot-ups: 1.344 ppp (99th percentile), Transition: 1.197 ppp (67th percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Spot-ups: .996 ppp (49th percentile), Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .542 ppp (95th percentile), Isolation: .879 ppp (34th percentile), Off screen: .609 ppp (90th percentile)
Kyle Korver 2012-13 shot chart:
Floor spacers don’t come much better than this. Korver demands perpetual, diligent respect from defenders who essentially have very little in the way of options outside of shadowing him every second he’s on the floor – his three-point percentage and remarkable spot-up numbers should make that abundantly clear to all. His assist rate also reveals he’s adept at making the extra swing pass to find the open man when the opposition rotates his way. Outside of those two things, however, there’s not a whole lot left to his offensive game. The 32-year-old isn’t going to put the ball on the floor and blow by anyone, which is why his shots at the rim and free throw rate are so miniscule. He’s decent as a team defender but definitely not someone who can be left on an island and he can’t be counted upon to corral much in the way of rebounds. Yes, Kyle Korver is largely a one-trick pony. But in a league that increasingly relies on generating scoring chances via the drive-and-kick, that trick promises to hold an immense amount of value to more than a few teams this summer.
Corey Brewer (UFA)
The basics: 12.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.5 apg, .3 bpg, 1.4 spg, .425 FG%, .296 3-PT%, .690 FT%, 14.76 PER
Advanced stats: 6.6 rebound rate (62nd among qualifying SFs), 9.9 defensive rebound rate (64th), 3.1 offensive rebound rate (47th), 10.3 assist rate (55th), 8.5 turnover rate (16th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 65.1% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 41.0%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 28.6% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 38% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: .856 ppp (36th percentile), Off screens: .83 ppp (41st percentile), Transition: 1.153 ppp (57th percentile), Cuts: 1.085 ppp (30th percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Spot-ups: 1.103 ppp (21st percentile), Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .709 ppp (73rd percentile), Isolation: .78 ppp (60th percentile), Off screen: .639 ppp (89th percentile)
Corey Brewer 2012-13 shot chart:
The king of the leak out. After spending the first few years of his NBA career in search of a productive identity, Brewer found his niche in Denver as a player who wreaks havoc with his ability to fly up and down the court collecting easy baskets in transition and early offense. His speed and length make him a defensive demon while playing the passing lanes and he makes his living feasting upon those live-ball turnovers, as well as any and all missed shots since he seemingly takes off in the opposite direction the second an opponent’s shot is hoisted into the air. That last point in part explains his very poor rebounding numbers and should also help to hammer home the fact that Brewer simply must play in an up-tempo attack dedicated to pushing the pace wherever he goes. In the half-court he’s just too limited as both a ball handler and shooter (though he did at least improve his corner three-point marksmanship to 36 percent this past season) to be consistently effective when the game around him slows to a crawl.
Matt Barnes (UFA)
The basics: 10.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.5 apg, .8 bpg, 1.0 spg, .462 FG%, .342 3-PT%, .744 FT%, 15.57 PER
Advanced stats: 10.6 rebound rate (23nd among qualifying SFs), 14.5 defensive rebound rate (32th), 6.5 offensive rebound rate (15th), 13.1 assist rate (43rd), 9.6 turnover rate (31st)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 69.0% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 41.1%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 40.0% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 36% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: .965 ppp (57th percentile), Transition: 1.243 ppp (78th percentile), Cuts: .989 ppp (16th percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Spot-ups: .942 ppp (63rd percentile), Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .597 ppp (91st percentile), Isolation: .822 ppp (48th percentile), Off screens: .722 ppp (79th percentile)
Matt Barnes 2012-13 shot chart:
Every team can find a way to utilize Swiss Army knife guys and that’s exactly what Matt Barnes is – a player who’s not great at any one thing but one who can do a lot of different things competently. Barnes has played for eight different teams during his ten-year NBA career and at most of those stops he’s found a way to contribute thanks to his useful versatility. This season was no exception as he excelled in transition and did good work as a team defender. His rebound and assist rates both took a sharp drop from the year before, but he helped make up for that by turning the ball over at a career-low rate (while increasing his usage from the year before, no less) and being a better threat from long range, especially from the left side of the floor where he hit more than 42 percent of his attempted three-pointers from that area.
Carlos Delfino (UFA-Team option)
The basics: 10.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.0 apg, .1 bpg, 1.0 spg, .405 FG%, .375 3-PT%, .857 FT%, 13.39 PER
Advanced stats: 7.4 rebound rate (53rd among qualifying SFs), 13.4 defensive rebound rate (38th), 1.2 offensive rebound rate (67th), 15.9 assist rate (24th), 8.5 turnover rate (16th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 67.1% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 28.6%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 38.8% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 34% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: 1.12 ppp (85th percentile), Off screen: .951 ppp (65th percentile), Transition: 1.063 ppp (40th percentile), Pick-and-roll ball-handler including passes: .897 ppp (57th percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Spot-ups: 1.048 ppp (33rd percentile), Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .877 ppp (25th percentile), Isolation: .689 ppp (80th percentile), Off screen: 1.136 ppp (13th percentile), Post ups: 1.041 ppp (11th percentile)
Carlos Delfino 2012-13 shot chart:
For so many role players, NBA success frequently hinges upon finding the perfect fit, and for Carlos Delfino, the Rockets’ pace-and-space attack fit him like a glove this past season. The Argentinean’s shooting and savvy made him an integral part of many of Houston’s most productive lineups until injuries to his elbow and foot began to eat away at his effectiveness and, ultimately, brought about an extremely unfortunate development that figures to play a significant role in his immediate hoops future. Delfino fractured a bone in his right foot; an injury that will force him to focus on rehab throughout most, if not all, of the summer. That’s no small thing for a player who will be 31-years-old by the time next season rolls around, but assuming he’s able to make a full recovery, Delfino’s floor-spacing and smarts figure to still be worthwhile commodities should he hit the open market.
Metta World Peace (ETO)
The basics: 12.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.5 apg, .6 bpg, 1.6 spg, .403 FG%, .342 3-PT%, .734 FT%, 12.55 PER
Advanced stats: 8.1 rebound rate (46th among qualifying SFs), 11.5 defensive rebound rate (56th), 4.5 offensive rebound rate (27th), 10.1 assist rate (57th), 8.8 turnover rate (20th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 58.6% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 29.7%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 38.7% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 36% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: .991 ppp (61st percentile), Isolations including passes: .775 ppp (44th percentile), Off screen: .83 ppp (41st percentile), Transition: 1.077 ppp (41st percentile), Post-ups: .951 ppp (82nd percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Spot-ups: .907 ppp (70th percentile), Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .912 ppp (20th percentile), As big defender versus pick-and-roll ball-handler: .785 ppp (50th percentile), Post-ups: .746 ppp (74th percentile), Isolation: .752 ppp (67th percentile), Off screen: .763 ppp (72nd percentile)
Metta World Peace 2012-13 shot chart:
The good news: World Peace finished this season with his highest scoring average since the 2008-09 campaign when he was playing in Houston and still went by the name Ron Artest. The not so good: The 33-year-old doesn’t earn his keep by virtue of any offensive exploits – he hasn’t been a true force on that end of the floor since his one season with the Rockets – and his trademark defense is not what it once was either. The 14th-year veteran enjoyed some success on occasion this season as a small-ball power forward and that might be his best career move going forward given that it’s becoming increasingly difficult for him to stay in front of quicker wings or fight through screens (the latter point being something that has never really been a strong suit for him to begin with), and since he has the strength to bang with bigger players and is able to knock down corner threes on the offensive end. A reduced role that allows him to perform in shorter stints would likely give his effectiveness a boost as well.
Mike Dunleavy (UFA)
The basics: 10.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, .5 bpg, .5 spg, .442 FG%, .428 3-PT%, .820 FT%, 13.6 PER
Advanced stats: 8.0 rebound rate (50th among qualifying SFs), 14.9 defensive rebound rate (30th), 1.7 offensive rebound rate (63rd), 15.8 assist rate (24th), 9.8 turnover rate (35th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 69.7% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 44.4%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 33.3% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 35% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: 1.196 ppp (93rd percentile), Off screen: .868 ppp (48th percentile), Transition: 1.275 ppp (83rd percentile), Pick-and-roll ball-handler including passes: .92 ppp (66th percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Spot-ups: 1.044 ppp (35th percentile), Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .709 ppp (73rd percentile), Isolation: .753 ppp (67th percentile), Off screen: .812 ppp (63rd percentile)
Mike Dunleavy 2012-13 shot chart:
As with the aforementioned Carlos Delfino, put Mike Dunleavy with the right team and in the right role and there’s little doubt he has the ability to produce in a very positive fashion. Both are heady players who can space the floor and make the right play, and both have experienced some rotten injury luck over the course of their careers. Dunleavy’s knee issues are well documented, but he’s managed to stay on the floor for much of the past two seasons, allowing him to give the Bucks some much-needed pop coming off their bench. The Duke University product is a clever team defender who takes lots of charges but is otherwise undisruptive defensively (see his pedestrian steal and block numbers) and that doesn’t figure to change given that he will be 33-years-old by the time next season starts. But provided his health holds up, Dunleavy should still be able to help a playoff team in a reserve role for another year or two.
Chase Budinger (RFA) (all stats from 2011-12 season)
The basics: 9.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.1 apg, .1 bpg, .5 spg, .442 FG%, .402 3-PT%, .771 FT%, 14.92 PER
Advanced stats: 9.7 rebound rate (27th among qualifying SFs), 16.2 defensive rebound rate (21st), 3.4 offensive rebound rate (46th), 11.7 assist rate (40th), 8.7 turnover rate (16th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 65.2% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 18.6%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 48.3% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 37% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: 1.07 ppp (83rd percentile), Off screen: .897 ppp (50th percentile), Transition: 1.323 ppp (82nd percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Spot-ups: 1.033 ppp (27th percentile), Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .82 ppp (37th percentile), Isolation: .606 ppp (87th percentile), Off screen: 1.216 ppp (5th percentile)
Chase Budinger 2011-12 shot chart:
Speaking of rotten injury luck as it pertains to knees, Chase Budinger and the Minnesota Timberwolves had to be cursing their own misfortune during their dually disappointing 2012-13 campaign. Minnesota desperately needed the floor spacing that Budinger was brought in to deliver, but that dream died quickly when the 25-year-old tore the lateral meniscus in his left knee six games into the season, forcing him to miss a total of 59 games. The good news is that Budinger made it through the season’s final 17 games unscathed, providing hope that he’ll be back to normal going forward. What is normal for the University of Arizona product? Good, but not great three-point shooting, passing and rebounding with the occasional eye-popping dunk on offense, and solid but unspectacular D. In fact, “solid but unspectacular” largely sums up the production Budinger delivers. His athletic gifts and smarts seem to perpetually hint at more, but thus far the steady results he's produced have far more often been the norm.
Dorell Wright (UFA)
The basics: 9.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.9 apg, .4 bpg, .8 spg, .396 FG%, .374 3-PT%, .851 FT%, 16.07 PER
Advanced stats: 9.6 rebound rate (33rd among qualifying SFs), 17.0 defensive rebound rate (22nd), 2.6 offensive rebound rate (54th), 17.1 assist rate (20th), 7.3 turnover rate (7th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 62.4% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 28.0%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 15.4% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 31% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: 1.1 ppp (82nd percentile), Pick-and-roll ball handler including passes: .947 ppp (74th percentile), Hand-offs: .80 ppp (43rd percentile), Transition: 1.18 ppp (63rd percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .786 ppp (49th percentile), Spot-ups: .965 ppp (56th percentile), Isolation: 1.044 ppp (10th percentile)
Dorell Wright 2012-13 shot chart:
Any team that swings and misses in pursuit of Kyle Korver probably won’t wait long to give Dorell Wright a call. The 27-year-old isn’t in Korver’s elite class as a shooter, but he isn’t too shabby either, plus he’s five years younger, longer and a better rebounder. Wright isn’t a great ball handler and he knows it – hence his microscopic turnover and free throw rates – but it’s at least worth pointing out that the Sixers allowed him to navigate his way through a relatively sizable number of pick-and-rolls this past season and Wright produced positive results. Defensively Wright has the physical tools to be better than he’s shown thus far but his focus and effort on that end of the floor have a tendency to wane – a pity since every NBA team is forever looking to add more 3-and-D players to their roster, especially those who possess the kind of coveted length owned by Wright.
Chris Copeland (RFA)
The basics: 8.7 ppg, 2.1 rpg, .5 apg, .2 bpg, .3 spg, .479 FG%, .421 3-PT%, .759 FT%, 16.89 PER
Advanced stats: 8.1 rebound rate (46th among qualifying SFs), 11.9 defensive rebound rate (54th), 4.5 offensive rebound rate (27th), 5.5 assist rate (70th), 10.1 turnover rate (37th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 69.0% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 28.1%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 28.6% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 35% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: 1.155 ppp (88th percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: 1.315 ppp (95th percentile), Isolation: .843 ppp (70th percentile), Post-ups: .818 ppp (53rd percentile), Transition: 1.286 ppp (84th percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: As big defender defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .638 ppp (89th percentile), Spot-ups: 1.391 ppp (2nd percentile), Isolation: .731 ppp (72nd percentile), Post-ups: .717 ppp (80th percentile)
Chris Copeland 2012-13 shot chart:
If Copeland were your typical rookie, there’d no doubt be a bevy of teams lusting after him and lining up to bid for his services based on the numbers he posted in limited minutes during his inaugural NBA season. Alas, the University of Colorado product is already 29-years-old, a reality that will no doubt put a damper on any potential bidding wars. Nonetheless, Copeland’s age needn’t neuter all the warm fuzzies resulting from a perusal his statistical profile. He should still have plenty of quality years left in his playing career and there will always be demand for players who can finish around the rim and knock down threes at the rates he posted this past season. Copeland can score and do so efficiently in a variety of ways, but he showed little in the way of passing skill and his defensive awareness must improve as well – each of which must improve for him to earn an expanded role on a playoff caliber club. Even at his current level of aptitude, however, Copeland did enough to prove he can be a productive player in this league. And, no matter the age, that should be more than enough for him to merit interest this summer.
Al-Farouq Aminu (UFA)
The basics: 7.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.4 apg, .7 bpg, 1.2 spg, .475 FG%, .211 3-PT%, .737 FT%, 13.73 PER
Advanced stats: 16.9 rebound rate (1st among qualifying SFs), 26.2 defensive rebound rate (1st), 7.9 offensive rebound rate (6th), 13.7 assist rate (37th), 15.4 turnover rate (70th)
Shooting percentages by location: At rim: 66.1% (SFs averaged 65.7% from that distance in ’12-‘13), 3-9 feet: 39.4%, (SF average: 37.9%), 10-15 feet: 37.5% (SF average: 41%), 16-23 feet: 26% (SF average: 36.4%)
Noteworthy Synergy stats: Offense: Spot-ups: .6 ppp (8th percentile), Cuts: 1.075 ppp (28th percentile), Isolation: .581 ppp (17th percentile), Transition: 1.218 ppp (72nd percentile)
Defense: versus post-ups: Defending pick-and-roll ball handler: .528 ppp (96th percentile), Spot-ups: .925 ppp (66th percentile), Isolation: .96 ppp (17th percentile), Post ups: .84 ppp (49th percentile)
Al-Farouq Aminu 2012-13 shot chart:
Assuming he's willing to put in the requisite work, Aminu has late bloomer written all over him. Just 22-years-old, the third-year wing went from being a very good rebounder to outright elite this past season, ranking first among all small forwards in both rebound rate and defensive rebound rate. He’s exceptionally long for his position and very athletic – physical tools that give him a good chance of being a defensive menace as well. In order to maximize those talents, however, he’s going to have to find at least one thing on which he can hang his hat offensively because right now he’s little more than a garbage man of sorts on that end of the floor, finishing around the rim via put-backs and in transition. Defenders know they’re free to sag off Aminu at all times since he can’t shoot, and any time he puts the ball on the floor it’s an adventure as seen by a turnover rate which ranks dead last among players at his position. But NBA history has witnessed plenty of raw players in their early 20s who become solid contributors – or far better – later on in their respective careers. Aminu certainly has the ability to follow a similar arc. What’s clear, however, is that he’s not there yet.
Players possessing opt out options they are highly unlikely to exercise: Shawn Marion (ETO), Richard Jefferson (UFA – Player option), Hedo Turkoglu (ETO), Marvin Williams (ETO), Trevor Ariza (UFA – Player option)
Other notables: Luke Babbitt (UFA), Ronnie Brewer (UFA), DeMarre Carroll (UFA), Omri Casspi (RFA), Marquis Daniels (UFA), Devin Ebanks (RFA), Wesley Johnson (RFA), Dahntay Jones (UFA), James Jones (UFA – Player option), Linas Kleiza (UFA – Player option), Corey Maggette (UFA), Tracy McGrady (UFA), Mickael Pietrus (UFA), Quintin Richardson (UFA), Reggie Williams (UFA), Sam Young (UFA)
