NBA TV Preview

Clearly it ain't broke, so there's no need to fix a Heat roster that could return as many of 14 of the '15 Strong' that won last year's NBA Championship.

The biggest difference between this year and last will be the presence of Pat Riley on the bench from the outset, a decision Riles only made final in August.

"Winning the championship showed me that I am definitely in the right place, at the right time, with the right people," Riley said of his decision to return.

It stands to reason, then, that the Heat could be an even better team in 2006-07 than they were a year ago. Miami was far from dominant during a 52-30 regular season, in part because of a lethargic 11-10 start under Stan Van Gundy (which, to be fair, coincided with Shaquille O'Neal's sprained right ankle).

On Riley's watch, the Heat compiled a 57-27 mark in the regular season and playoffs, and won the first NBA Championship in franchise history. Whether or not they can repeat might depend on their health. Six of their top eight players are over the age of 30, including Gary Payton (38), Alonzo Mourning (36) and O'Neal (34).

Miami can ill afford a prolonged injury to Shaq. Though he's no longer the Big Dominator, O'Neal still changes the game at both ends. Consider the Heat was only 10-13 when Shaq didn't suit up last season, but they were 4-3 without Dwyane Wade.

Jason Williams (23 games), Mourning (17) and James Posey (15) also missed significant time, but the Heat entered the postseason healthy because Riley did an outstanding job managing the minutes of his veterans. O'Neal (30.6 mpg), Payton (28.5), Antoine Walker (26.8) and Mourning (20.0) all had plenty of fuel in the tank at playoff time. Once again, minutes will have to be managed.

Even Wade (38.6 mpg), the only Heat player to average more than 32 minutes a game, played fewer minutes than many of his contemporaries. That didn't stop him from finishing in the NBA's top 10 in points (27.2, 5th), assists (6.7, 10th) and steals (1.95, 6th).

At the age of 24, Wade will only continue to get better, a frightening thought after a season in which he carried his team to an title, earning Finals MVP honors. Wade's only Achilles heel is three-point shooting – he was only 13-of-76 last season – but we're nitpicking. Wade is an unstoppable presence who makes the Heat a title contender for a long, long time.
-- Bill Evans

2006-07 Heat Partial Plans

Payton

It's no surprise that Gary Payton's scoring average dipped to only 7.7 last season. His minutes were managed, and he was the fourth option on a loaded offense.

What's more disturbing is his career-low field-goal percentage of .420, especially considering he probably had as many open looks as he's ever had.

The drop can be partly attributed to his reluctance to drive to the basket, where he once was one of the game's best finishers. His .287 percentage from downtown, though, suggests a decline in jump shot accuracy as well.

Payton, re-signed to a one-year deal in August, remains one of the game's toughest and most durable players (13 games missed in 16 seasons), but he's certainly in the twilight of his career.

Given the durability concerns of starter Jason Williams, who underwent off-season knee surgery after missing 23 games a year ago, can Payton keep the Heat clicking at a championship level if depended upon to play big minutes?
-- Bill Evans

X&O STRENGTH

Riley

The same core group, they are one year older... Shaq has already said its Wade’s ball club but when other teams prepare for the Miami Heat, they prepare first for Shaq because there still hasn’t been an answer for him, even though his skills have declined and he’s older... I think what Pat is going to try and do is see if he can find that third scorer consistently night in and night out. That’s a big key. You need three bonafide scorers and they had it at times.

X&O WEAKNESS
I think that one of his big concerns will be Shaq and his health... Also Dwyane Wade, because Dwyane Wade has played a lot of basketball in the last 12 months, and how he prepares for a tough season will be key...The biggest thing he has got to try and do is come up with a defensive concept, especially with his guards. When you think in terms of having a 37-year-old Gary Payton as your defensive stopper out front at the guard position is tough. They don’t have at the point guard position a player that can set the defensive tone for them.

HEAD COACH PHILOSOPHY
It’s good that Pat has been in that position before. The first thing he is going to get is everybody’s best game because they are the defending champions. How he prepares his ball club night in and night out, he’s been through that so that’s going to help him to get ready for the season and starting the season instead of coming in like he did last year, that’s going to help him. Whats he's going to try to do is become a better defensive ball club.
-- Butch Beard (courtesy of the National Basketball Coaches Association)

Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make.
Still, the Heat need more outside shooting.
Shaq's on record as saying the Heat only need to worry about the playoffs. He played 59 regular season games last year, I don't see him playing much more than this year.
Dwyane is one of the top three players in the game, but he throws his body around with reckless abandon. He needs to protect himself better.
No one's quicker with the ball than Wade.
Have you seen the age of the guys on this team? Payton's 38, Zo's 36, Shaq's 34. They've won a title. They may be primed for a let down this season.
Though, Riley may not allow that. Then again, he's proven he can do it again, so, he may not be as sharp.
-- Eastern Conference Scout

Udonis Haslem: Great rebounder with solid percentages. He'd be a great bargain in the later rounds.

Antoine Walker: Walker is now a role player on a deep Heat roster, and his numbers have fallen from his All-Star years.

More fantasy news

The 2006-07 Heat will look eerily similar to the championship team of a year ago. That means letting Dwyane Wade do his thing, feeding the ball down low to the big fella, and kicking the ball out to Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and James Posey on the perimeter. Walker, Posey and Williams will do plenty of damage from behind the arc, as opposing defenses are forced to clamp down on Wade’s slashing and Shaq’s dominance in the low post. And as defenses fight to block out Shaq under the boards, Udonis Haslem will remain free to roam for “freebie” put backs and rebounds on the weak side.
-- Brian McKitish
Heat Fantasy Preview

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